Geopolitics

Nepal headed in a dreadful direction
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Issue Net Edition | Date : 12 Feb , 2011

The recent election of Jhalanath Khanal of CPN (UML) as the Prime Minister is a grim indicator that political developments in Nepal is going in the most dreadful direction. The new secret arrangement, even before it was exposed, smacked of an unscrupulous deal between an unprincipled and ambitious politician (Jhalanath Khanal) and a wily anti-national and an anti-people outfit, the Maoists.

Jhalanath had been using every trick, machinations and leverages not only in Nepal, but China as well to replace Madhav Kumar Nepal, a member of the same political party, as the Prime Minister. The Chinese factor was therefore a overwhelming consideration in the secret deal.

IDR-Intelligence-BriefAs part of the deal, the prime ministership was to be rotated, with Prachanda taking over as the prime minister in May 2011. The Maoists wanted two critical portfolios i.e. Home and Defence. Thanks to the leakage of the secret deal the Maoists have now decided not to join the government. In fact, in the recent times it is the leakages that have prevented Nepal from a complete Maoist takeover. Khanal was thus instrumental in paving the way for a Maoist takeover of the country. It is widely believed in Nepal that Jhalanath Khanal is basically a Maoist in the garb of CPN (UML) politician. In the secret deal, he had also assured the raising of a separate force out of the Maoist armed cadres. It may be reiterated that the Maoists are the only political party having an armed cadre, which was sought to be legitimized during the peace process.The role and interference of these (Scandinavian) countries in fueling insurgencies in Nepal, India and Sri Lanka through various front organizations, even under the aegis of the UN, has been suspect for a longtime.

Financially too, the Maoists are richest as a political organization. As per a newspaper report, the top ten hotels in Nepal pay hefty sum to the Maoists as ransom. With that kind of armed and financial muscle, how could the world community, particularly India, believe that the Maoists will ever be prepared to behave as a responsible opposition within the framework of a multi-party democracy.

The Maoist leadership used the Nepali Congress, the CPI (UML), and other political outfits to remove the monarchy. It used various church organizations for funding and in return it opened their way to unbridled proselytizing by declaring Nepal a secular state. In fact there was no public demand for it. Now with conversions no more being illegal, the phenomenon has become rampant. It is intriguing that some Scandinavian countries which have very little economic and geopolitical stakes in Nepal have their embassies in Kathmandu. The role and interference of these countries in fueling insurgencies in Nepal, India and Sri Lanka through various front organizations, even under the aegis of the UN, has been suspect for a longtime. The religious agenda of these countries weighs very heavily in their global perspective and outreach.

The Maoist leadership has therefore used some NGOs of those European countries who facilitate through the church for funding and political support; it has used China for ideological and covert support; it has used the Indian Maoists for cross-border coordination, which includes arms smuggling and to establish linkages with other insurgent groups; it has used some Indian intellectuals to influence the Indian political discourse on Nepal; it has used the Indian establishment to earn political legitimacy, and it has used the UNMIN, which was basically under the influence of some European countries, which were solely guided by their religious agenda, to gain legitimacy for its armed cadres. It is for this reason that there was much relief and joy in most of Nepal other than the Maoists, when the UNMIN packed its bag in Nepal on 15 January 2011. Far from contributing to the peace process, it had become a facilitator for a Maoist takeover of Nepal.

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The political direction of the Maoists in Nepal has strong parallels with Mao’s communist movement in the 1930s, which eventually led to the totalitarian communist regime taking over China, something which Chinese have been condemned to suffer ever since. Just as the Maoists of Nepal use every alliance as an opportunity to further their cause, the communists under Mao in China had courted the Kuomintang Nationalist Forces to fight the Japanese, who had invaded China in 1937. Later, the communists dumped the Kuomintang and finally captured their own country after much bloodshed. Historically, Mao vies with Stalin and Hitler for having killed maximum number of their own people.

“¦the seriousness of the Maoist threat is not being realized because India has large space to absorb the Maoist terror, but Nepal being a small country fell into the Maoist trap.

If the Maoist game plan succeeds, the Nepalese are going to meet the same fate. Much of the blame for this now very plausible scenario must rest with India.

It is India which gave respectability to the Maoists of Nepal. It was ill-equipped and inexperienced to do so. Nepal should have questioned the Indian wisdom especially in the backdrop of the fact that the Indian leadership and a section of its pseudo-intelligentsia have not been able to tackle the Maoist menace in its own country. The other pre-disposition of the Indians is to apply the same Westminster political template in arriving at value judgments with regard to other countries, as if our political system is ideal and infallible, and no other system can better it. It must be remembered that a given political system functions within the framework of a country’s history, geography and sociology. We ignored these basic facts, while facilitating a new democratic process in Nepal. There was nothing new. All the political players and political outfits are known, tried and discredited commodities. The experiment no wonder is failing. Nepal will not be able to even give itself a Constitution.

A new political system cannot be ushered in a vacuum. It cannot be done by destroying powerful symbols of nationhood, which in case of Nepal was the monarchy. A radical political transformation needs a fair and strong transitional arrangement. Unfortunately, in Nepal, this arrangement became hostage to the Maoists after they inveigled their way to power and legitimacy. Expecting them to repudiate their ideology, their belief in one party rule and armed struggle was sheer naivety, puerile intellectual endeavour and deliberate ploy by vested interests, furthering the Maoists cause.

Nepal today is in the throes of uncertainties. It is being steered away from India and closer to China by the Maoists. True to their roadmap, the Maoists have been most focused on their objective of establishing one party rule in Nepal. All posturing and political alliances have been opportunistic in that direction.

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As in Nepal, the same Maoist threat is impacting on India. The same elements are supporting the Maoists. It is evidenced by the clamour of the same vested interests for release of Binayak Sen. Representatives of some of these organizations tried in vain to put international pressure on the Indian judiciary by registering their presence during the Court proceedings in Chattisgarh. Even some section of the English media in India has arrived at the conclusion that Binayak Sen will get justice only in the Supreme Court. They have pre-judged that he is innocent, thereby indirectly attacking the judiciary i.e. High Court and below. The same activists, international human rights groups and the media has nothing to comment about the Kangroo courts of the Maoists.

An ex-army chief of the Nepal Army warned the Indians not to commit the same mistake as Nepal in dealing with the Maoists. He said that the Nepal Army on many occasions could have easily obliterated the top Maoist leadership, but refrained from doing so because they had the faith and belief that the Maoists could be brought into the mainstream. He said that it was a cardinal mistake to have believed the treacherous Maoist leadership. With regard to India, he warned that the seriousness of the Maoist threat is not being realized because India has large space to absorb the Maoist terror, but Nepal being a small country fell into the Maoist trap.

Jhalanath Khanal and his party, the CPN (UML) have succumbed to the Maoist treachery. The new prime minister has bartered Nepal. There are many Indians on an overdrive to do the same with India.

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The views expressed are of the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions or policies of the Indian Defence Review.

About the Author

RSN Singh

is a former military intelligence officer who later served in the Research and Analysis Wing, or R&AW and author of books Asian Strategic and Military Perspective, The Military Factor in Pakistan and The Unmaking of Nepal. His latest books are Know the Anti-Nationals (English) and Know the एंटी-नेशनल्स (Hindi).

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