Geopolitics

Nepal at Dangerous Cross Roads
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Issue Net Edition | Date : 04 Nov , 2015

Map courtesy: http://www.nepal.gov.np/

Nepal police on 2nd Nov opened fire killing a 19-year-old student from Darbhanga in Bihar. The police opened fire near the border to stop Madhesi protesters from reoccupying a bridge in the No-Man’s Land demarcating the Raxaul-Birgunj border between India and Nepal.

Security forces dominated by those from the hilly regions, have brutally suppressed these demonstrations. The political elites have deliberately ignored their demands something that has not been hidden from any one.

Ethnic minorities have taken to the streets in large-scale protests against the discriminatory provisions of the new governing order. Nepal’s new constitution is highly controversial further deepening the divide.

Nepal’s constituent assembly had been drafting a new constitution for past seven years. The devastating earth quake accelerated this process, which placed pressure on elites to resolve their political disputes. But the parties saw this an opportunity to rush through a constitution that consolidated the conservative establishment’s power.

Security forces dominated by those from the hilly regions, have brutally suppressed these demonstrations. The political elites have deliberately ignored their demands something that has not been hidden from any one. Escalating their protests, the Madhesis have effectively disrupted trade routes. These protests have forced hundreds of fuel laden trucks to a standstill on the Indian side of the divide.

This incident is yet another reminder of simmering discontent arising out of deeply rooted Nepal’s social divisions. The demonstrators, mainly from southern lowland minority groups, are angry about Nepal’s new constitution. These ethnic divisions and the associated suspicions have now manifested into a political turmoil. Nepal undoubtedly is edging closer to a larger political and a humanitarian crisis. It has a potential of spilling on to the Indian side if not handled carefully by the Nepalese political elite. The legitimate Madhesi rights can no longer be supressed any more by these political elite largely comprising of the hill people. The realisation of which is a must, earlier the better.

The hill elites always doubted the loyalty of the Madheshis towards the nation.

Hours after the killing incident, Prime Minister Narendra Modi called up his Nepal counterpart K P Oli and raised India’s concerns while condemning the ill happening. Modi also assured Oli that there was no obstacle from the Indian side on supply of fuel and other essentials.

Simultaneously the External Affairs Ministry at South Block summoned Nepal’s envoy Deep Kumar Upadhyay. Nepal’s ambassador was told that they were “deeply concerned” over the Birgunj incident. Further advising Upadhyay, he was also told that “issues facing Nepal are political in nature and cannot be resolved by force” and that “the causes underlying the present state of confrontation need to be addressed by the government of Nepal, credibly and effectively”.

In these modern times of information, internet and media, India is fully aware of the dangers ensconced in the ethnic divide and distrust. This distrust dates back to 1816. The history bears the testimony to the fact that the Madheshis and the Tharus have always been humiliated ever since the central and eastern parts of Terai were gifted away by the British East India Company to Nepal. Some areas were partly gifted after the Sugauli Treaty of 1816 and partly after the Sepoy Mutiny (1857) in 1860.

The hill elites always doubted the loyalty of the Madheshis towards the nation. Uptill 1954, the Madheshis and the Tharus formed 94 per cent of the total population in the Terai region. But since the 1970s, the state— during the years of monarchy— helped hundreds of thousands of hill migrants to settle in Terai mostly by clearing the thick forest land.

Nepal is now widely polarised between those who support and those who oppose the Constitution.

It may surprise many, but the fact is that as late as the mid-1950s, the Madheshis had to receive permits from the government authorities to enter Kathmandu, the capital city. The Madheshis comprise the bulk of such stateless citizens in Nepal even to this day. In 2007, there was a major Terai uprising, which was controlled only when the government made a formal agreement with the Madheshi leaders for the formation of a single autonomous Madhesh Pradesh with the right to self-determination.

The history of mistrusting those hailing from the Tarai region; it needs no astrologer to predict the tumults times that lay ahead. Nepal is now widely polarised between those who support and those who oppose the Constitution. China, Pakistan and a few other countries have welcomed the new Constitution, but India has indirectly shown its displeasure over the development, which is worrisome.

Majority of the Foreign Policy experts in India argue that India’s actions (supporting the Madhesis), which has left a substantial proportion of the Nepali population angered, will push Nepal toward a closer relationship with China. However there are a few who tend to disagree and say that this assessment misunderstands the local realities.

The developments in Nepal have a great potential of spiralling out of control engulfing bordering districts of North Uttar Pradesh and North Bihar into an international crisis ranging from a humanitarian one to a much serious ethnic insurgency.

China is unlikely to assume India’s strong position of influence in Nepal. Despite tension, India and Nepal share many religious, cultural, and linguistic commonalities and have a long history of cooperation. In addition, the sparsely populated and mountainous border between Nepal and China is inhospitable to trade. While Nepali nationalists would like to see Nepal move into China’s embrace, India remains the country’s natural ally, despite recent strains.

Whatever be the assessments vis-à-vis Nepal China relations as a fallout to this existing political crisis. India’s security and intelligence establishment should spot the storm at the horizon. The fact that the ethnic spread of the Madhesis and Tharus spills over to the Indian side substantially. During the insurgency days of Nepal, Tarai region was a bridge between the Prachanda’s army and India’s Naxals.

Another factor that cannot be ignored is the sizeable Muslim population that resides on either side of the international border. There have been numerous instances in the past of Pak ISI exploiting these open borders to harm India. It is also a known fact that this border belt has been steadily radicalised as part of Pakistan’s nefarious agenda through madrasa funding’s from the Middle East.

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The developments in Nepal have a great potential of spiralling out of control engulfing bordering districts of North Uttar Pradesh and North Bihar into an international crisis ranging from a humanitarian one to a much serious ethnic insurgency. Thus, this young democracy is at a critical juncture. While resentment between the political elite and indigenous groups has risen significantly, accommodating Madhesi demands in the new constitution is unavoidable.

However if the Madhesi and other ethnic demands are ignored, the anti-constitution movement could become more radical. Separatist factions could emerge which could well be exploited by both the Chinese and the Pakistanis against the Indian interest.

There should be every reason for the Indians who see themselves as a major players in the coming of Asian age. This requires high level of statesmanship on the either side to save the region and shape a brighter destiny for the people of these two neighbours.

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The views expressed are of the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions or policies of the Indian Defence Review.

About the Author

Danvir Singh

Associate Editor, Indian Defence Review, former Commanding Officer, 9 Sikh LI and author of  book "Kashmir's Death Trap: Tales of Perfidy and Valour".

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One thought on “Nepal at Dangerous Cross Roads

  1. Indian policy planners should seriously think about the effects of a total meltdown of governance in Nepal and if the different powers within their country start fighting against each other….the total failiure of Nepali politicians to put their national interest at the forefront is very sad and sorry state of affairs…It is of no use in blaming India for every problems faced by Nepal…..the day to day functioning of their country is the hands of Nepali politicians…….On the other hand, what should India do in the event of total breakdown in Nepal? Should we intervene there politically and start talking to the Nepali armed forces to ensure that the country stand united in the face of bitter political battle engineered to some extend by the Maoist supported political parties….India should not be taken by surprise and we should be ready to meet any eventuality…..this is where the decision makers in Delhi should treat the situation across the Nepal border much more seriously and put various plans on the table…..a failed Nepal is not an option for India…. Since Indian armed forces and Nepalese forces have a strong bond, we must explore how this can be used to bring stability to the political scene in that country.

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