Pic Source: https://twitter.com/SchranerBurgen1/status/1377386258943541248/photo/1
Speaking at an event hosted by the Foreign Press Correspondents’ Club of Japan in Tokyo on May 28, 2021, Christine Schraner Burgener, UN special envoy for Myanmar has warned of possible civil war in Myanmar. She had given a similar warming earlier also. She said people are arming themselves against the military junta and protesters have started shifting from defensive to offensive actions, adding that the situation in Myanmar is worsening with a hampered health sector and a collapsing banking system.
The National Unity Government (NUG) of Myanmar, operating in exile against the military junta has announced a ‘People’s Defense Force (PDF)’ as its military wing to overthrow the military junta regime. However, of the about 20 armedethnic groups reportedly fighting the Myanmarmilitary, only the Chin National Front (CNF) has publicly announced its support to unseat the military junta. CNF has a membership of about 10,000 and its armed wing is the Chin National Army (CNA). In February, CNA sought asylum for their families in India, primarily in Mizoram because of cross-border ethnic links.
Fighting among government forces and armed groups has been continuing. According to media, fighting between the military and Karen State-based armed groups on June 1 left at least 32 military soldiers dead and about eight wounded. Fighting continued next day. On June 2, the police station in Waw Lay was attacked with rocket propelled grenades and a military barrack was set on fire. The military reportedly responded with artillery fire.
The Karen People’s Defence Force (KPDF) says that during battle with the military in Dawh NganKha ward in Demoso at lease 80 military soldiers were killed, which could be exaggerated. In attacks by military helicopters KPDF fighters also suffered casualties. According to Karen National union (KNU), civilian resistance fighters and a splinter group of the Democratic Buddhist Army too are battling the military. The nationwide clashes include Kayah State in the southeast, Chin State in the west, Sagaing Region in the northwest and Kachin State in the north. Hundreds of families have been displaced.
There are reports of youth, especially those whose relatives have died in the clashes or killed by the military, going into forested areas for arms training with the ethnic armed groups. Their numbers are not known but may not be large at present. Some police personnel have deserted to join the resistance movement and few from the military also, prominent among them being Captain Tun Myat Aung from the 77th Light Infantry Division and Major Hein Thaw Oo from the 99th Light Infantry Division
Among the armed ethnic groups primarily it is only the Karen National Liberation Army (KNLA) that has been battling the military. KNLA has some 12,000 armed cadres. Whether the NUG will be able to attract other armed ethnic groups under its banner is questionable. The West would want that but China having links with most of these groups would not want this to happen. Moreover, this is not the first time Myanmar is under military rule and these armed groups though opposed to the military have been fighting individually over past decades.
However, if another two or more armed groups join NUG, even though fighting the military in areas other than KNLA, it could amount to formidable resistance, ushering a bloody civil war. China has been pumping weapons into Myanmar for decades in order to arm insurgents both in Myanmar and India. China supplied Afghan Taliban with QW-1M missiles, one of which was used to shoot down the US-130 aircraft over Jalalabad on October 1, 2015 killing 13. But in case of Myanmar, China has armed the United Was State Army (UWSA) even with missile fitted attack helicopters. Myanmar’s black market remains awash with Chinese weapons.
In June 2020, a large consignment of Chinese-made AK-47 rifles, machine guns, grenades and ammunition were seized from a house in Mae Tao, Sot District on the Thai side of Myanmar-Thailand border. Of the six persons arrested, four were ethnic Karen and two were ethnic Rakhine. Mae Sot has emerged as a black market for armed ethnic groups in Myanmar. India had asked Thailand and Myanmar to share details of the probe on illegal arms originating from China.
With the military rule in Myanmar, the repatriation of Rohingyas from Bangladesh to Myanmar has come to a standstill. Aside from the possible move by Suu Kyi to amend the Constitution and remove the 30 percent military seats in Parliament, the military perceived her too soft on China in kick-starting the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC) in the manner it happened during visit of Chinese President Xi Jinping to Myanmar in January 2020, as well as the Rohingya issue.
In its usual characteristic style, China has been playing the double-game with Myanmar all along, promoting its own interests no matter who is in power in Myanmar. During Jinping’s visit last year, Myanmar military had issued a statement that a foreign country is arming insurgents in Myanmar – clear reference to China. As of now, China is firmly behind the military junta and so is Russia.
Russia’s Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu visited Myanmar in January 2021. This was followed by Russian Deputy Defence Minister Alexander Fomin visiting Myanmar in March 2021 to hold discussions with General Min Aung Hlaing who took over the country on February 1. This was first high-profile foreign visit to Myanmar after the military takeover. Now Russia has signed a contract to supply unspecified number of Orlan-10E surveillance UAVs to Myanmar as part of a deal that includes Pantsir-S1 surface-to-air missile systems and radar equipment. In 2018, Myanmar had signed a deal with Russia to buy six Su-30 fighter aircraft from Russia. Russia and China have formalized their alliance recently.
India finds itself in a Catch 22 situation, somewhat akin to our abstaining from voting on the United Nations Human Rights Council (UNHRC) resolution calling for a probe into violence in Gaza, following which Palestine labeled India anti-Arab. Concurrently, Yesh Atid party chief YairLapid has informed the Israeli President that he had formed a coalition of eight parties including an Arab-Israeli party and under the coalition agreement Naftali Bennett of Yamina party will serve as the first Prime Minister of Israel followed by Yair Lapid in 2023. The Knesset is yet to approve the arrangement.
The five-point roadmap for Myanmar at the special meeting of ASEAN in April included seeking a political solution through dialogue, accept the appointment of a special envoy to engage with all parties and to grant access to humanitarian assistance from and coordinated by ASEAN. Our Ministry of External Affairs welcomed the ASEAN statement and said, “Our diplomatic engagement with Myanmar will be aimed at strengthening these efforts.” General Min AungHlaing has said the ASEAN suggestions will be carefully studied but first stability must come to Myanmar. Chances of stability coming to Myanmar in the present scenario, however, appear remote.
Our Army Chief and Foreign Secretary visited Myanmar in October 2020. But under the circumstances, should we wait for the ASEAN to engage with all parties? Should India not take this initiative at parallel level? If the Russian Deputy Defence Minister could visit Myanmar after the February 1 military coup, why can’t our DefenceMinister visit Myanmar? NUG may be contacted separately, as required. We need to balance between championing democracy, our national interests and ground realities. There is need to be pro-active through sustained engagement(politically, diplomatically and militarily) rather than sit on the fence and let China manoeuvre events. Last time an Indian Defence Minister visited Myanmar was in January 2012.
Defence Minister Rajnath Singh after his recent telephonic discussion with his Australian counterpart Peter Dutton has said that India and Australia will soon have a 2+2 Dialogue at the foreign and defence ministers level. Concurrently, there is a letter circulating in media signed by a long list of retired diplomats supporting India’s foreign policy. But considering the strategic importance of Myanmar, did any of these diplomats ever think that we should have institutionalized 2+2 Dialogue with Myanmar?
India’s “Look East” policy was developed and enacted during the governments of Prime Ministers PV Narasimha Rao (1991–1996) and Atal Bihari Vajpayee (1998–2004). Prime Minster Narendra Modi promoted it further as Act East Policy (AEP) in 2015. What other signal did these diplomats need to suggest we should commence a 2+2 Dialogue with Myanmar or did they consider Myanmar too diminutive, and this goes for the present lot in MEA too? Should we have not had such a dialogue in place with immediate neighbours like Myanmar and Bangladesh?
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