Indian Defence Review

On the strategic front, India has two main concerns, viz, Islamic radicalisation and China. Maldivians in Pakistan are mainly students pursuing higher education in various disciplines; in addition to these, there are also a few obtaining religious education in the madrassas and other Islamic institutions of Pakistan. The recruiters of jihadi fundamentalism from Taliban and Pakistan have successfully influenced such students, a fact accepted and mentioned in the Annual Ministry of Defence Report, as far back as in 2000. Recent news indicate the arrest of about 60 youth from the Maldives on their return from the ranks of the IS. The Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) has established a foothold in the islands since 2004, under the garb of providing aid after the tsunami. India’s concern is that the terror organisation could use some of the uninhabited islands as a launch base for forays into southern India.

India is definitely uneasy with Maldives’ relationship with China; what may be of surprise for the reader, however, is the fact it was the ousted President Nasheed and not President Yameen, who initiated China’s entry into the islands. In 2011, China was permitted to open its embassy in Male; the Chinese were then welcomed to invest in the economy, despite India’s reservations. President Yameen, followed up by taking the relations with China to a new high, with an increasing mistrust of India’s intentions. In December 2017, the proverbial last straw was broken when Maldives signed a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with China, with a hurried ratification by the Majlis late at night, without the presence of the opposition members, and those members present, given only 15 minutes to approve the deal! The preferential trade pact between Maldives and India, signed as far back as 1981, was thus, practically nullified. Maldives also announced in August 2017, its go-ahead for Chinese warships to dock in the islands under the garb of ‘goodwill visits’, despite India’s protests. India’s reaction to this move, of welcoming the erstwhile President Nasheed irked Maldives and triggered President Yameen to tilt further closer to China. China is now assisting Maldives in infrastructure and developmental projects, including a bridge between the airport at Hulule and Male, and the development of the airport. All this and more Chinese involvement in Maldives, while denials by the President’s office that the country’s China policy does, in no way, have an adverse influence on the special relationship with India!

Options for India

Maldives is no stranger to political crises. What set off the current crisis was a Supreme Court ruling on 01 February 2018, overturning the convictions of President Yameen’s rivals. Not only has the Court order been ignored, but President Yameen went on to declare an emergency and arrested the judges, including the Chief Justice, who handed out the ruling. The reason underlying such controversial decisions is obvious: the lure of power!

China’s growing presence in the Maldives is a serious concern to India given the latter’s geographic proximity to the Indian coastline. The Maldivian islands also sit near international sea lanes through which India’s oil imports traverse. India’s security would be threatened should the Chinese set up a naval base in the Maldives. These concerns are not without substance; in August 2017, three Chinese naval vessels docked at Male, setting off alarm bells in Delhi.

India is watching the unfolding crisis in the Maldives with concern, while mulling different options. Strategists suggest that not doing anything is not an option given India’s stakes in a stable Maldives and advocate an Indian military intervention. Some argue that it does not behove a rising power like India, with big ambitions, to shrink away from acting robustly to defend its interests in the region. Indeed, Manvendra Singh, a legislator of the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party in the state of Rajasthan and editor of Defence and Security Alert (D&SA), as quoted in The Print (https://theprint.in/2018/02/06/talk-point-can-india-play-decisive-role-unfolding-crisis-maldives/) has described the current crisis in the Maldives as an “opportunity” for India “to stake its claim to being a global player.” It is “imperative” for India to intervene in the Maldives, he says, “Since any global role is always dependent on a country’s performance in the neighbourhood first.” In his argument he states that “Maldives today is not what it was in 1988, and neither is India, nor the world. So, the nature of the intervention must also reflect the changes.”

On the other hand there are others who do not wish to see an intervention by India; such a move, the group argues, would portray India as a regional bully and a hegemon. Such groups advise restraint as was done in similar situations in Bangladesh and Myanmar, which, they claim, paid rich dividends. Then there are others, who, while comparing the Indian military intervention of 1988, express their scepticism that though the political will of the current dispensation in India is not in doubt, the capacity to involve itself is vague.

What then are the options for India to resolve the crisis in Maldives? According to reports in the Indian media, the government has ruled out the military option for now, although it has activated its standing operating procedure for the Maldives by keeping Special Forces troops ready for deployment at short notice, should the need arise to evacuate Indian citizens. India can offer itself as a facilitator to restore parliamentary, judicial and media reforms to help get Maldives back on the democratic path. Such a scenario may appear to be idealistic, but India can employ a range of tools to make President Yameen agree and deliver. Statements issued by the Indian government should be escalated in tenor and content, including at the United Nations; like-minded nations, such as USA, France, Germany, and Japan, should be asked to bear requisite diplomatic and economic pressure on Maldives through travel advisories and outreach, to affect the mainstay of its economy, namely tourism. India has been traditionally opposed to the imposition of sanctions as a method to influence regime behaviour, as it believes that sanctions affect more the common population rather than the ruling elite; India should, therefore, not ask for sanctions per se.

China is another major player in this crisis. While it has cautioned countries against any intervention in Maldives (mainly directed towards India), it has also said that it would not like another Doklam-like confrontation with India in Maldives. President Yameen may look for Chinese support to thwart any Indian or international pressure, but he would, in all likelihood, also listen to China, for it has invested heavily in Maldives. The international community should, hence, involve China to mediate in Maldives to ensure a speedy return of democratic norms in the troubled archipelago.

Mohamed Nasheed, former president, is an opportunistic politician for it was he who welcomed China to Maldives; he has now asked for military intervention by India, quoting 1988 that Indian did not come to occupy the islands, but only to restore order. It would be in India’s interest to tread softly, keeping the military option as a last resort, and that too, preferably under the UN flag. While the world and India may have changed since 1988, an outside power intervention today, to effect a regime change, can have an opposite effect and push President Yameen truly into the lap of China. While wanting a regime change, India should reach out to the people of Maldives, and make them aware of India’s capabilities in the region as the first responder to any distress call, as was done for tsunami relief and supply of drinking water; the benefits of following democratic norms that would accrue should be highlighted; ramping up public opinion and nationalistic fervour should, therefore, be the course of action for India.

Concluding Thoughts

President Abdulla Yameen, since 2013, has notched up many ‘accomplishments’, from befriending Saudi Arabia and China, to making attempts to wipe out opposition to his rule, intimidating the remnants of a free media, and now since 01 February 2018, shutting parliament, ‘capturing’ the judiciary’, and declaring a 15 day emergency, thus effectively suspending the constitution. President Yameen has become, in effect, a dictator of a population of about 400,000, of which about a third is crammed into six square kilometres of Male.

Maldives, an idyllic holiday destination for the world, is in a political turmoil, with travel advisories from many nations to their citizens, thus affecting Maldives’ support for its economy, tourism. Yet, the crisis continues, with the former president Nasheed asking USA and India for sanctions and intervention against President Yameen, and neither obliging, as of now.

The Maldives impasse presents a tricky situation for India: how to re-establish democracy, without subverting the nation’s sovereignty? At the time of writing this piece, the emergency is still continuing, whether it will be extended, is anybody’s guess. For India, a well-thought of course of action is the only response; military intervention could be the final option, but it is definitely not the starting point.

There are no easy answers. The challenge posed by the situation in Maldives will be a test of Indian leadership in the region.

Stop Press

As reported on 20 February, President Abdulla Yameen has extended the emergency by 30 days. The proposal was presented in the Majlis with only 39 members in attendance as against a required quorum of 43; the opposition boycotted the sitting of the Majlis.

Former president Mohamed Nasheed met the Indian Raksha Mantri, Ms Nirmala Sitharaman, on the sidelines of an international meet in Chennai on 19 February. The meeting, though reported on the social media and some Indian newspapers, has not been commented upon by the Indian Government.