Indian Defence Review

China’s surging economic power has been matched by increasing military might including investments in an aircraft carrier, anti-ship ballistic missiles, satellites, modern weapon systems and other hardware. In contrast, a decade of neglect of the Indian Military has widened the capability gap vis-à-vis PLA exponentially. With the new government in power headed by a dynamic Prime Minister, there is speculation of a new era in India-China relations. However, it would be prudent to remember that it is the capabilities that matter even if intentions change overnight.

Pentagon reports indicate that China’s defence spending exceeded $145 billion last year with considerable advances towards modernising an arsenal of drones, warships, jets, missiles and cyber weapons. Although denied by Beijing, actual defence spending by China has always been much higher than the official figures because of the massive corporate-business-industrial complex that the PLA privately owns. Pentagon also cited a Defence Science Board report cautioning Beijing’s push, “combines unlimited resources with technological awareness that might allow China to match or even outpace US spending on unmanned systems in future.”

Last September, a ‘probable’ Chinese drone was observed conducting reconnaissance over the East China Sea (ECS). China also unveiled details of her first stealth drone in 2013. In January 2014, China successfully tested a hypersonic missile vehicle designed to travel at – ten times the speed of sound. China is innately focused on technology acquisition. Spying and cloning are institutionalised. Reportedly, China has even stolen US stealth technologies through cyber spying and penetrated the FBI. Spying, snooping and reverse engineering have given China designs of the US F-I6, the B1 Bomber, the US Navy’s quiet electric drive, the US W-88 miniaturised nuke used in Trident Missiles, to name a few.

China is capitalising on her growing foreign policy reach into new markets offering low-priced products such as the J-10 and JF-17 fighters, missiles, radars and communication equipment. There have been instances of EU firms circumventing sanctions to provide new technologies to China on the pretext of dual use through ToT or JVs in China. China aims to achieve parity with the US in science and technology in three decades plus. The J-20 stealth fighter was developed in record time. The stealth fighter has been unveiled and stealth helicopters and vessels are soon to follow.

The Urgency

China’s surging economic power has been matched by increasing military might including investments in an aircraft carrier, anti-ship ballistic missiles, satellites, modern weapon systems and other hardware. In contrast, a decade of neglect of the Indian Military has widened the capability gap vis-à-vis PLA exponentially. With the new government in power headed by a dynamic Prime Minister, there is speculation of a new era in India-China relations. However, it would be prudent to remember that it is the capabilities that matter even if intentions change overnight.

China already has enormous military capability and her intentions are hardly friendly, as demonstrated in recent years to her neighbours in the ECS and South China Sea (SCS). Her aggressiveness can be gauged from ongoing confrontations with Japan, Philippines, Vietnam and others in the Asia Pacific and intrusions into Indian Territory. Philippines has approached the UN but China is conveying at various fora that she will not abide by international arbitration. China’s ‘Middle Kingdom’ mentality has egged her to claim parts of Russia, Japan, Korea, Mongolia, Central Asia and India.

Conflict with China cannot be ruled out because the issue of boundary settlement is complex. Despite years of parleys, the only maps that have been exchanged are of the Central sector. In the Eastern and Western sectors, Chinese claims have been expanding over the years substantively and that is why China has not offered any maps. In Arunachal, China had earlier claimed Tawang but since 2006, these claims extend to the entire Arunachal Pradesh. In the East, China is looking at more and more depth to her energy pipelines through Myanmar. In Ladakh (Western sector), China seems to want a wider handshake with Pakistan with the occupation of Shaksgam and presence in Gilgit-Baltistan. However, for an amicable settlement, India’s strategic interests too need to be accommodated.

The Asymmetry

Future conflicts will be five dimensional – aerospace, land, sea, cyber and electro-magnetic. Information Warfare will include NCW, C4I2, electronic, cyberspace and other forms of operationalised cyberspace. Information superiority will be as important as land, sea and aerospace superiority. Space combat, cyberspace combat, radiation combat, robotic combat, nano-technology combat will add to forms of combat. Operations will be increasingly inter-agency involving greater application of all elements of national power. States will continue to employ hi-tech irregular forces; asymmetric and hybrid wars will be a regular affair. Bridging the asymmetries vis-à-vis China in all this is a herculean task that the new government should embark on post haste, nuances of which are given in succeeding paragraphs.

Higher Defence Structures

The PLA is fully integrated with the government. The all-powerful Politburo has three military members. Their focus is on strategy, force development, technology acquisition, military diplomacy and synergising all elements of national power. The RMA in China was initiated by Jiang Zemin, its implementation overseen by the CMC and Chief of General Staff with matching technological advances in strategy and concept, organisations and training – setting PLA after precision weaponry, satellites, superior ICT and putting in motion ‘informisation’. The PLA’s Armed Police and PLA’s Militia are controlled by the CMC and work in tandem with the PLA.

India is yet to evolve a comprehensive grand strategy or lay down strategic policy guidelines in pursuance of her national interests. The politico-bureaucratic establishment has been shy of indulging in strategic issues and remains content largely with the status quo. Lack of strategic culture, inadequate higher command structures plus keeping the military out of the loop in policy formulation has created great asymmetry in all related issues mentioned herein.

Indigenous Defence Industry and Procurement

China is spending about 1.5 per cent of total GDP on R&D. Increased self-reliance catering to defence needs is China’s strong point. She has resorted to leapfrogging technology including by reverse engineering. China’s defence acquisition is constrained by embargoes by the US. EU firms have been helping China under cover of dual-use technologies. About 40 per cent of China’s defence needs are met indigenously and the balance from Russia.

China has her own operating system KYLIN, home-grown search engine BEIDU, a fast developing indigenous GPS, the world’s fastest supercomputer, consistent technical standards for production and evaluation of IS products, number of FABs for manufacturing IC chips, testing and R&D establishments, laboratories and training establishments both for developing skill-sets and to formulate and practice IW concepts at the strategic, operational and tactical levels.

India, on the other hand, is importing over 80 per cent of defence needs. Very little investments are made into R&D, the DRDO, OFB and DPSUs can only boast of pockets of excellence and the private sector is yet to be fully integrated into the defence-industrial base. There is no roadmap for leapfrogging technology. In addition, the painfully laborious defence procurement process and red tape have left the military with gaping voids leave aside modernisation albeit the Prime Minister has called for addressing these issues urgently.

Aerospace

China has more than four times the number of satellites in orbit than India. She has demonstrated Anti-Satellite (A-SAT) capability successfully in 2007. The PLA depends heavily on satellites for military communication, reconnaissance, surveillance and navigation. The US had recently ‘guided’ a Chinese satellite gone defunct, so it may be surmised that China too is developing such capability. China has 24×7 satellite cover along the LAC. There are 11 airfields in and around Tibet from where China can launch operations against India. China has one airborne Corps with three airborne Divisions. Transport aircraft available can lift one airborne Division at a time for strategic airlift and one Brigade plus into operations in single lift.

India presently can air launch one parachute Battalion group into operations in one lift. In terms of numbers, the PLAAF is large and is developing a force structure that focuses on air strikes, air and missile defence, strategic projection and build up of an informationised, networked-base support system to operate in a complex electro-magnetic environment. The Indian Air Force (IAF) is down to 29 squadrons and there are gaping holes in India’s air defence. The government is taking steps to hasten the Medium Multi-Role Combat Aircraft (MMRCA) deal. The force level urgently needs to be raised to 45 squadrons.

China, perhaps, has the largest drone fleet after the US. The PLA envisions its drone swarms scouting battlefields, guiding missile strikes and overwhelming enemy defences through sheer numbers. China’s military-industrial complex has established a wide array of indigenous drones to accomplish these goals. China’s ‘Wing Loong’ reportedly costs around $1 million compared to the US ‘Reaper’ in the $30 million range.