For Benazir it is political revival and thus Musharraf could retain his Presidency. Musharraf has always been willy and in case his fertile mind fails to conjure up a devious plan, the most obvious route of any Pak military dictator is always available to him. Impose an emergency and raise the bogey of a threat from India and under the cover from Kashmiri “freedom fighters” spark off another Kargil to divert attention. This is the sort of a ruler that India is dealing with. We should not forget that Musharraf is also controlling the ISI that has been tasked to balkanise India. The recent report published in the American Press is nothing new. Way back in the eighties, Indian Army had brought to the notice of the Government the fact that ISI had taken firm roots in the North Eastern Region. Under such environment when Musharraf is playing a double game, what is the logic of having round table Conference & scratching each other’s back when nothing worthwhile seems to be fructifying on the ground.
With all the peace talk and proposals Pakistan continues to upgrade its conventional arms capability cashing on the US funding”¦
In the given situation, how far can the peace-dialogue proceed. Musharraf’s “demilitarization” plan is mere euphemism for getting the Indian Army out of J&K to consolidate Jehadi control of J&K. “Joint Supervision” or “Joint Control” is a merely misleading terminology for diluting our sovereignty in J&K. Once agreed to, the Jehadi hordes would be converted into J&K police to ensure “Joint Control” and that would be the end of India’s control over J&K. Once weapon wielding police force is under Pakistani control any form of election, polls, referendum or plebiscite can be manipulated to Musharraf’s desired output. He has after all ensured five years of his presidency through a referendum conducted in Pakistan. Repeating a similar feat in J&K would be child’s play for such a manipulative dictator. It is surprising that we were offering Siachen as a “mountain of peace” to such a wily dictator who as a Brigadier behind an attack on Bila Fondla on the Saltoro Ridge (Siachen Glacier) in 1987 was beaten back by the Indian Army. Surely he is trying to achieve by diplomacy and ruse what four wars and the Siachen struggle could not achieve. With all the peace talk and proposals Pakistan continues to upgrade its conventional arms capability cashing on the US funding and arms supply which 9/11 opened up.
Dick Cheneys visit along with CIAs Steve Caps, apparently displaying satellite images showing presence of Taliban/Al Qaeda camps on Pak soil has rattled Musharraf. USA is convinced that Osama Bin Laden and Ayman al Zawahiri are very much alive and hiding with Pak knowledge in the mountains stretching from Chitral to the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA).
With all this in mind one is forced to ask the question whether we need fresh bearings – and a new sense of direction regarding India’s Kashmir policy. The Indian electorate should not be taken for granted. It can not be fooled by various slogans or gimmicks. If Kashmir is compromised without taking the Indian Nation into confidence, the nation will have to pay a very heavy price. The Indian stand has been clearly declared in the Parliament in 1989. Should there be any policy change the nation has a right to know? “back – channel diplomacy” will not be tolerated by the Nation for major policy changes.
We need to clearly reiterate internally across party lines what our Kashmir policy is so that we are not forced to react to a plethora of media-delivered proposals by Musharraf. We should be under no compulsion to appease Pakistan. Communication channels must be definitely kept open to avoid another Operation Parakram at great cost to the exchequer; however this must be done only to avoid a war so that it does not hinder our economic progress. We must continue to engage Pakistan but continue to upgrade our conventional and nuclear military power. Time has come when India has to prepare her Armed Forces to look after her interests. To achieve this, a serious thought needs to be given to equip the Services with cutting edge on a joint-manship platform. There is nothing superior to National Interests and these must be fulfilled for at all costs. Rs. 96,000 Crores is not enough to ensure that. With our impressive growth rate we should ensure that at least 3% of the GDP is allotted to our Armed Forces. On the Line of Control we must be prepared to adopt a proactive approach and keep “hot pursuit” options open with vertical envelopment capability through attack helicopters. Our J&K strategy should be based purely on national interests. For this we need to declare our National Strategy and a National Security Strategy; the latter will give directions formulating Army, Navy & Air Force Strategies. Presently, these are made independently based on the personality of the head of respective service.
If it is felt that the nation desires a changed stand on the Kashmir issue then we should try to gauge it’s will through a public debate on the subject. The facts should be well publicised and if required, despite the expense, India should go in for a referendum to determine what the people of this country desire regarding J&K. Which is not the personal property of any one. It is an integral part of India. The dictates of history and strategic blunders of 1947, 1965 and 1971 (when we had over 92,000 prisoners of war) may be difficult to alter under the present circumstances. Surely we can hold on to what we still have. If we can not, can we claim to be the emerging power we project ourselves to be, with ambitions of being a global power ? Surely it is time to check our compass or GPS (Global Positioning System) and confirm that we have our bearings right on our J&K policy. From the way we are drifting at present, I am compelled to ask the question “Have we lost our bearings regarding our Kashmir Policy? ”
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