Given the EU dependence on Russian energy sources, the West would need to tap into Iran’s vast hydro-carbon reserves – the world’s second largest gas reserves after Russia and the second largest oil reserves after Saudi Arabia. Add to this, is Iran’s geo-strategic location atop the Persian Gulf and the Caspian Sea. Having successfully checkmated US approaches into Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan, Putin has begun to move into traditional American territory in West Asia. The Russian naval flotilla led by the aircraft carrier Admiral Kuznetsov was recently in the Mediterranean off the Syrian port of Tartous. In terms of size the Russian fleet was extremely small compared to what the Americans have put together in the Persian Gulf and the Mediterranean. But it is a beginning.
The Russians will continue to oppose the invasion of Iran, which the Arabs also do not want, but it will be careful not to alarm the Arabs by being too supportive of Iran. Indias geo-strategic, economic and political interests, especially its energy requirements in the next few decades, demand that India remains friendly with both Russia and Iran while managing its relations with the US.
The Russian support for Iran against unilateral sanctions, and the decision to supply fuel to Bushehr nuclear power plant indicates a coming together of the two countries. Russian experts had arrived in Iran in December to install TOR-M1 air defence batteries at Iran’s nuclear facilities. Putin has visited Saudi Arabia (another first for a Russian President), Jordan and Qatar in February 2007 and later Iran in October that year. He would rather have the Chinese access West Asian, including Iranian, gas and oil rather that Central Asia which would increase its influence far too close to Russia. Both Iran and Russia are opposed to US led trans-Caspian pipeline schemes. Iran needs Russia for the development of the massive South Pars gas fields and the Russians would want Gazprom to move into Iran.
Putin was not going to let the Americans have a free run of the place, and assessing that there has been a decline in US prestige following a string of foreign policy disasters, it was necessary to control or influence the producers of energy in the years ahead. The timing had to be right. Vladimir Putin’s moves in election year in the US, as he moves into the space being vacated, will also be interesting to watch. The Russians will continue to oppose the invasion of Iran, which the Arabs also do not want, but it will be careful not to alarm the Arabs by being too supportive of Iran. India’s geo-strategic, economic and political interests, especially its energy requirements in the next few decades, demand that India remains friendly with both Russia and Iran while managing its relations with the US.
The struggle in Iran is not about its nuclear weapons programme. The struggle is for its oil and gas, and for dominance. Unless the Americans agree to dialogue with the Iranians fairly soon, the game could well slip away from them.
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