The Kashmiri armed rebellion may not easily be suppressed because the separatists are bent upon sabotaging the peace process and the movement may be taken over by extremist jihadi groups operating from Pakistan and Pakistan-administered Kashmir. If this happens, Kashmiris may once again be at the receiving end from both sides. Civilians will be killed in cross-firings and brutal attacks by terror groups—many innocent persons have been brutally murdered as they were suspected to be police informers by the terrorists.
Turmoil in Pakistan
Pakistan is at war with itself: a series of blasts in cities which have targeted common citizens and young students have spread a sense of despondency across the country. Why the militant organisations raised by the state should turn against it and target the poor innocent bystanders is a question that seems to have no clear answer. The Pakistani media reports describe the conditions with admirable candour. “Whichever city you visit security check posts greet you first and give an ominous message and the razor sharp concertina wires increase your sense of foreboding.
The militants in frontier areas, who are being frequently targeted by American drones and Pakistan artillery, are launching attacks on the vulnerable urban centres of Pakistan, and these attacks are gradually becoming more lethal.
Big malls build wear deserted looks and shopkeepers are ready to down their shutters at slightest alarm. More the Pakistan army strives to drive away the insurgents from their strongholds in South Waziristan greater the danger to civilians in prosperous townships, this is a deliberate strategy to attack the moderate society to avenge their defeat in their homeland. The frequency of these deadly attacks has brought normal life to a standstill leading to political and economic chaos.” However, this has not prevented the ISI from nurturing those very terrorist organisations that are helping the attacks in Pakistani towns. This may sound strange but is true.
Smaller groups operating in the small urban areas of Khyber Agency still control trade routes to Afghanistan and are active despite the military operations. Obviously, they have a license to carry on without fear. One group is reported to be running an FM radio station, which threatens people with certain mayhem and suicide bombers if they dare to cooperate with the state authorities.
It’s going to be a long battle between the civilised society and the radical groups in Pakistan. In the meanwhile, terrorism is destroying the existing political and administrative structure, the army and the central government have an uneasy relationship and the judiciary is at loggerheads with the administration. In these chaotic conditions, no agency, even the army, can operate effectively against the militants. The militants in frontier areas, who are being frequently targeted by American drones and Pakistan artillery, are launching attacks on the vulnerable urban centres of Pakistan, and these attacks are gradually becoming more lethal. NATO supply convoys have been under attack lately. One should expect greater destruction of life and property as no relief is in sight.
The parents of the children who are being trained in bombings and suicide attacks are paid a meagre amount of money and told that if their child will become a martyr, they too will get a place in paradise and meet their child in heaven.
The rapidly deteriorating situation and political turmoil, along with the devastating floods, is taking a huge toll on Pakistan, but radical forces think that jihad against India is more important than aid to Pakistani flood victims. Militant Sunni factions have been mounting deadly attacks against the Shias instead of helping the millions of flood-affected people. Lashkar-e-Tayibba is emerging as a new international terrorist organisation and it is training illiterate and unemployed youth for terrorist attacks. The parents of the children who are being trained in bombings and suicide attacks are paid a meagre amount of money and told that if their child will become a martyr, they too will get a place in paradise and meet their child in heaven. There is no sign of the internal conflict abating in the near future, and this poses a major security threat to the entire South Asian region.
Somalia
The violence and terror in Somalia has gradually spread beyond its borders through piracy, arms deals, human trafficking and terrorism. The transitional government that is propped by an African Union peacekeeping force is unable to control the spreading chaos and may be overthrown by raging Islamist insurgency. Instability in Somalia could directly threaten the U.S., European and African security interests as al-Shabaab, with its links with al-Qaeda, is capable of waging a long-drawn war against the state. If al-Shabaab gains further ground and the war is prolonged, Somalia may be the only country in the world to be ruled by al-Qaeda.2
Fighting has intensified in Mogadishu since August after al-Shabaabs so-called new massive war against the government forces and AMISOM started.
Since July this year, al-Shabaab has intensified attacks on government forces and peace keepers—AMISOM. A large number of civilians were killed in renewed fighting that broke out in July between al-Shabaab and government forces north of Mogadishu. Fighting has intensified in Mogadishu since August after al-Shabaab’s so-called new massive war against the government forces and AMISOM started. At least 80 people were killed and a large number injured in al-Shabaab attacks on government positions between 23 and 30 August—in a Mogadishu hotel, at least 35 people were killed; 4 AMISOM soldiers were killed besides peace keepers; 8 civilians were killed and 25 wounded in roadside bombing and al-Shabaab’s shelling of the presidential palace. Ten militants were reported killed when their explosive devices detonated prematurely. It is to be noted that among the dead militants, there were 3 Pakistanis, 2 Indians, 2 Afghans and 1 Algerian. Al-Shabaab, however, suffered heavy casualties on the Ethiopian border according to government sources.3
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