Indian Defence Review

Many mini-wars are raging around the world, but internal conflicts where the main instrument of destruction is terrorism pose a great danger to the entire world directly or indirectly. Internal conflicts in India, Pakistan, Somalia and Tajikistan have been discussed here.

The policymakers in India are influenced by two opposing views, one of those who preach a soft line and advise patience and the other of the hard-liners, who want to give unfettered powers to the security forces regardless of the collateral damages. Those who advocate a soft policy want the state to use methods that would win over the insurgents and wean away their supporters. They consider better educational facilities, more employment opportunities, a just system and good governance as the best means to root out insurgencies and terrorism. The hard-liners blame the government for being soft and would prefer the “Rajapaksa Model,” employed by Sri Lanka to defeat the LTTE;

Pak army considers these organisations as strategic assets and a second line of defence in case of an Indian invasion; in the meanwhile, the radical Islamists and the ISI have been using them for attacking Indian troops in Kashmir”¦

The scene is murky in Pakistan. It seems the army brass and a segment of the population nurture the jihadi culture and have raised and trained various organisations for urban insurgency and terror attacks. The army considers these organisations as strategic assets and a second line of defence in case of an Indian invasion; in the meanwhile, the radical Islamists and the ISI have been using them for attacking Indian troops in Kashmir besides mounting catastrophic terrorist attacks on important urban targets in India. The strategic objective of these attacks is to destabilise and weaken India—attack India by inflicting a thousand cuts—as a conventional attack is beyond Pakistan military capability. Terrorism has been used as a state policy by Pakistan since 1989, but scores of armed organisations raised for attacking targets in India have eventually turned against Pakistan itself, leading to mayhem and administrative and economic breakdown in the entire country.

The rise of fundamentalist forces in Somalia and Tajikistan is directly linked with the global jihadi movement and supported by al-Qaeda. It has the potential to spill over to the neighbouring areas and engulf several countries and regions in violence and terrorism.

Turbulance in Kashmir

The street violence and political turbulence in the Kashmir Valley has escalated since June, mainly due to continued neglect of the common man and an oppressive atmosphere created by the never-ending security operations. The simmering discontent and anger boiled over after a couple of fake encounters by rogue elements among the security forces came to light. According to Meenakshi Ganguly, the youths say, “We have seen enough of India” and a 20-something-year-old told her, “We don’t want to put up with the oppression anymore. We want freedom.” He proudly claimed to be one of Kashmir’s so-called stone pelters aimed largely at police forces employed to put down a violent wave of demonstrations in Kashmir. “We are peaceful protesters,” he said. “We only throw stones if they stop us.” And if they catch a policeman alone, he said, they beat him up. “But we don’t kill him,” another youth said. “We have beaten up a few, but not a single policeman has been killed.” A third Kashmiri youth said, “It is only self-defense. It is in response to their provocation. Our stones for their bullets.”1

The Kashmiri armed rebellion may not easily be suppressed because the separatists are bent upon sabotaging the peace process and the movement may be taken over by extremist jihadi groups operating from Pakistan.

More than 100 people, mostly in their teens, have been killed in police firings since June; the police forces have also suffered about 1,200 serious injuries from heavy stoning. Although Prime Minister Manmohan Singh repeatedly promised “zero tolerance” for human rights violations in Kashmir, the civilian deaths continue to rise and no one has been held responsible for civilian casualties. The main response from the Jammu and Kashmir government to stop the agitation was to impose curfew and use paramilitary forces to suppress the movement, but this only gave greater momentum to the violent movement. The protesters defied the curfew and came out in larger numbers. Heavy stone pelting compelled the security forces to open fire on the rampaging mobs, and this led to a vicious cycle of violent demonstrations and fresh rounds of police firings from June to August. The police forces generally proved ineffective as they were not only outnumbered but had little training in dealing with intifada-like youth movements.

The government of India eventually took notice of the deteriorating law and order situation in Kashmir valley and sent an all party parliamentary delegation to study the problem on the spot. The interaction of this delegation with various segments of the population convinced the Central government that a political initiative must be taken without delay to diffuse the situation. Consequently, the government announced a political package that addressed the problem of the common man. The main points of this peace move that had an immediate impact on the common man were: lifting of curfew and opening of educational institutions, proposal to reduce the presence of security forces and checkpoints from large urban centres and release of youth arrested for stone pelting and other detainees booked for minor offences.

The Kashmiri armed rebellion may not easily be suppressed because the separatists are bent upon sabotaging the peace process and the movement may be taken over by extremist jihadi groups operating from Pakistan and Pakistan-administered Kashmir. If this happens, Kashmiris may once again be at the receiving end from both sides. Civilians will be killed in cross-firings and brutal attacks by terror groups—many innocent persons have been brutally murdered as they were suspected to be police informers by the terrorists.

Turmoil in Pakistan

Pakistan is at war with itself: a series of blasts in cities which have targeted common citizens and young students have spread a sense of despondency across the country. Why the militant organisations raised by the state should turn against it and target the poor innocent bystanders is a question that seems to have no clear answer. The Pakistani media reports describe the conditions with admirable candour. “Whichever city you visit security check posts greet you first and give an ominous message and the razor sharp concertina wires increase your sense of foreboding.

The militants in frontier areas, who are being frequently targeted by American drones and Pakistan artillery, are launching attacks on the vulnerable urban centres of Pakistan, and these attacks are gradually becoming more lethal.

Big malls build wear deserted looks and shopkeepers are ready to down their shutters at slightest alarm. More the Pakistan army strives to drive away the insurgents from their strongholds in South Waziristan greater the danger to civilians in prosperous townships, this is a deliberate strategy to attack the moderate society to avenge their defeat in their homeland. The frequency of these deadly attacks has brought normal life to a standstill leading to political and economic chaos.” However, this has not prevented the ISI from nurturing those very terrorist organisations that are helping the attacks in Pakistani towns. This may sound strange but is true.

Smaller groups operating in the small urban areas of Khyber Agency still control trade routes to Afghanistan and are active despite the military operations. Obviously, they have a license to carry on without fear. One group is reported to be running an FM radio station, which threatens people with certain mayhem and suicide bombers if they dare to cooperate with the state authorities.

It’s going to be a long battle between the civilised society and the radical groups in Pakistan. In the meanwhile, terrorism is destroying the existing political and administrative structure, the army and the central government have an uneasy relationship and the judiciary is at loggerheads with the administration. In these chaotic conditions, no agency, even the army, can operate effectively against the militants. The militants in frontier areas, who are being frequently targeted by American drones and Pakistan artillery, are launching attacks on the vulnerable urban centres of Pakistan, and these attacks are gradually becoming more lethal. NATO supply convoys have been under attack lately. One should expect greater destruction of life and property as no relief is in sight.

The parents of the children who are being trained in bombings and suicide attacks are paid a meagre amount of money and told that if their child will become a martyr, they too will get a place in paradise and meet their child in heaven.

The rapidly deteriorating situation and political turmoil, along with the devastating floods, is taking a huge toll on Pakistan, but radical forces think that jihad against India is more important than aid to Pakistani flood victims. Militant Sunni factions have been mounting deadly attacks against the Shias instead of helping the millions of flood-affected people. Lashkar-e-Tayibba is emerging as a new international terrorist organisation and it is training illiterate and unemployed youth for terrorist attacks. The parents of the children who are being trained in bombings and suicide attacks are paid a meagre amount of money and told that if their child will become a martyr, they too will get a place in paradise and meet their child in heaven. There is no sign of the internal conflict abating in the near future, and this poses a major security threat to the entire South Asian region.

Somalia

The violence and terror in Somalia has gradually spread beyond its borders through piracy, arms deals, human trafficking and terrorism. The transitional government that is propped by an African Union peacekeeping force is unable to control the spreading chaos and may be overthrown by raging Islamist insurgency. Instability in Somalia could directly threaten the U.S., European and African security interests as al-Shabaab, with its links with al-Qaeda, is capable of waging a long-drawn war against the state. If al-Shabaab gains further ground and the war is prolonged, Somalia may be the only country in the world to be ruled by al-Qaeda.2

Fighting has intensified in Mogadishu since August after al-Shabaabs so-called new massive war against the government forces and AMISOM started.

Since July this year, al-Shabaab has intensified attacks on government forces and peace keepers—AMISOM. A large number of civilians were killed in renewed fighting that broke out in July between al-Shabaab and government forces north of Mogadishu. Fighting has intensified in Mogadishu since August after al-Shabaab’s so-called new massive war against the government forces and AMISOM started. At least 80 people were killed and a large number injured in al-Shabaab attacks on government positions between 23 and 30 August—in a Mogadishu hotel, at least 35 people were killed; 4 AMISOM soldiers were killed besides peace keepers; 8 civilians were killed and 25 wounded in roadside bombing and al-Shabaab’s shelling of the presidential palace. Ten militants were reported killed when their explosive devices detonated prematurely. It is to be noted that among the dead militants, there were 3 Pakistanis, 2 Indians, 2 Afghans and 1 Algerian. Al-Shabaab, however, suffered heavy casualties on the Ethiopian border according to government sources.3

An attack on Kampala showed that al-Shabaab is capable of extending the conflict and involving neighbouring countries. Al-Shabaab has already indicated that Burundi would be its next target. The African Union (AU) needs to increase AMISOM’s strength to enable it to counter al-Shabaab offensive. According to reports, Djibouti, Uganda and Burundi were ready to contribute more troops; but so far, al-Shabaab is calling the shots.

Turbulence in Tajikistan

In Tajikistan, Islamic militants recently ambushed a military convoy, killing 25 soldiers and wounding another 20. It seems that fundamentalist forces in Tajikistan are being assisted by the Afghan Taliban militants across the porous borders. In August, militants linked to al-Qaeda killed six prison guards and broke out of jail in Dushanbe. During this month, a suicide bomber killed 2 policemen and wounded 25 at a police station in Northern Tajikistan and bombed a Dushanbe nightclub, wounding 6 people. Veterans from Tajikistan’s civil war and a new generation of militants drawing inspiration from al-Qaeda seem to be behind these attacks.

“These are still incredibly porous borders, and there are numerous places where it is quite easy for groups, organisations, individuals, to cross,” said Kelvin Jones, a keen observer of the scene in Tajikistan. “So the ability to move from northern Afghanistan to parts of eastern Tajikistan, to parts of southern Tajikistan is quite easy.”

“There is a new generation of Islamists,” International Crisis Group Central Asia analyst Paul Quinn Judge notes. “People who do not see that the state is offering them any role in life in Tajikistan, and who are looking at what is happening in Afghanistan, and I suspect in the North Caucasus, and seeing that as the real model for them.”

Many new mosques have come up recently in Dushanbe, and the rules of Shariat are being propagated from there. It seems the radicalisation of Tajik society is underway in an organised way, and this may soon pose a new challenge to this region. The head of research at the Russian Foreign Ministry’s Diplomatic Academy, Yevgeny Bazhanov, warns that Islamic radicalism could spread through Central Asia into Russia.4 In these circumstances, it is necessary for the U.S. and Russia to cooperate to stem the tide of radical Islam threatening the region.

Notes and references

1. Meenakshi Ganguly. “Letter From Srinagar: What Lies Behind the Resurgent Violence in Kashmir?” Foreign Affairs Magazine, 3 September 2010.
2. Ken Menkhaus and Christopher Boucek. “Terrorism Out of Somalia.” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 23 September 2010. <http://www.carnegieendowment.org/publications/index.cfm?fa=view&id=41612> (accessed 30 September 2010).
3. International Crisis Group. “Somalia’s Divided Islamists.” Africa Briefing N°74, 18 May 2010. <http:www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/africa/horn-of-africa/somalia/B074-somalias-divided-islamists.aspx>. (accessed 30 September 2010).
4. James Brooke. Moscow NEWS.COM VOICE OF AMERICA. Washington Post <http://voices.washingtonpost.com/blog-post/2010/09/the_war_in_afghanistan_what_s.html>. 20 September 2010.