The Indian government has long sought more H-1B visas for its citizens. The non-immigrant-specialty-worker visa programme was under attack during the election campaign and, as promised by President Trump, he has already passed an order to reduce H1-B visas. This translates into fewer Indians going to work in USA, putting Indian IT companies under great pressure. It could also generate animosity toward the administration among Indian-Americans — an increasingly important domestic constituency in USA.
The Indo-US bilateral relationship has been riding an upward graph since the turn of the century. The Trump administration’s attempts to build on that progress will be watched with great anticipation in India.
As far as India-Pakistan relations are concerned, President Trump has made some controversial statements, both during his electioneering and after his inauguration. He has offered to be a mediator/arbitrator between India and Pakistan, in a bid to resolve the Kashmir issue. If the offer, which the author is quite sure, would be welcomed by Pakistan, is anathema to India, as it has always rejected third-party intervention in Kashmir. Such an offer, if translated into policy, would be very damaging to Indo-US ties. On the other hand, earlier in the campaign, Trump’s comments criticizing Pakistan over its support of terrorism delighted many amongst the Indian leadership. It now appears that the recent action initiated by Pakistan against Hafiz Saaed, the leader of Jaamat ul Dawa (JuD) and the perpetrator of many terrorist activities in India, is a result of an ultimatum to Pakistan.
Historically, USA has intervened diplomatically during crises between India and Pakistan, even when knowing that Pakistan is the ‘rogue’ nation, sheltering the terrorist groups, just as it did with Osama bin Laden. If USA now looks the other way and allows India a freer hand to deal with Pakistan-sponsored terror, it could lead to an intensification of the perennial tensions beyond the breaking point. While President Trump would like to involve India, as a means of keeping Pakistan under check, he would definitely not an escalation of tensions between two nuclear-armed nations, as it could affect US interests in the region. India would have to play its cards well, maintaining a muscular stance against Pakistan, interjected with some military action, as was done in the publicly acknowledged surgical strikes.
The Way Ahead for India
The Indo-US bilateral relationship has been riding an upward graph since the turn of the century. The Trump administration’s attempts to build on that progress will be watched with great anticipation in India. Even if Trump and Modi are able to weave a friendly working relationship, Trump’s policies as president will determine whether he will be good for India and the relations between the two nations.
There is, yet, no Trump Doctrine, but the threads of a worldview are now visible. Through his many executive orders signed in the first ten days after assuming office, there appears a trend that President Trump is not going to be bound by the same ideological commitments as his immediate predecessors. This means that he would likely face many of the same political, institutional, and geopolitical constraints as the outgoing president, but it is possible that he would face them differently and, perhaps, achieve very different ends.
India has an opportunity, and should seize it, without delay or any hedging.
Of the many unanswered questions surrounding foreign policy under Trump, few are more significant for India than the future of the US relationships with Russia and China. Notwithstanding all its social and economic difficulties, Russia continues to wield military power and is a key force in the affairs of the world’s most strategically significant regions – Europe, the Middle East, and East Asia. China has likewise entered a period of economic and political uncertainty marked by slowing economic growth and a political centralization effort under President Xi Jinping. Nevertheless, China has the world’s second-largest economy and possesses military forces that are growing increasingly capable. President Trump’s engagement of these two nations, could have a significant impact on India; it would be an indicator of a new world order, a new political order in the Middle East, dictate US role in the Asia-Pacific, and decide on the future of American allies of NATO and otherwise.
At first sight, India does not have much to worry, notwithstanding the shock waves emanating from the many earthshaking policies and telephone calls made by President Trump. The tectonic plates of trade, immigration, international relations with friends and foes alike, have shifted; USA has withdrawn from the Trans-Pacific partnership (TPP), President Trump has had an antagonistic conversation over the phone with a long-time friend and ally – Australia, USA’s one-China policy is under threat, Mexico is feeling threatened with the continuing talk of a border wall, North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) is going under review, NATO is under threat. These and many more are examples of planned actions and new policies.
India has an opportunity, and should seize it, without delay or any hedging. This does not mean going along with whatever President Trump says. If he wishes to pursue an “America First” policy, India pursuing an “India First” policy is a logical response. India, therefore, should build long-lasting coalitions with like-minded nations, such as Japan or UK, without unduly annoying USA.
If the issue of H-1B visas is implemented in the manner that Donald Trump wants, then India should seize the occasion to make gains for itself.
India, first, should secure its position in the immediate and most important neighbourhood of the Persian Gulf. While Barack Obama had exempted India from the oil sanctions on Iran in 2012, to expect such an exemption from Donald Trump would be out of character. Iran is important to India not just because of the oil that it supplies, but also because of India’s geo-strategic plans of developing and using the Chabahar port. Secondly, India should remain on guard for any instability in the Asia-Pacific, aka Indo-Pacific region. Steve Bannon, the chief strategist under Trump, has already announced that wars with China and Iran are a possibility; similarly, the new appointee as Secretary of State, Rex Tillerson, has categorically stated plans to deny access to China to the seven artificial islands that it has constructed in the South China Sea. A coalition with an aim of strategic coordination between India and Russia, and India and Japan, could calm things down in the Persian Gulf, as well as Eastern Asia.
A legislation introduced in the US House of Representatives would restrict the issue of H-1B visas, with an aim of making it difficult for companies to replace American employees with foreign workers. India, also affected, has limited manoeuvring space to bypass the restrictions, but can make some broad moves.
Most of the global IT and financial firms that would be affected by the restrictions on H-1B visas have sufficiently large establishments in India; they could be offered placements for their engineers in India, under a special scheme. Indian IT companies, such as TCS and Infosys, in the likely event of their engineers being sent home, should chalk out a plan of action to accommodate them in India. The uncertainty and instability caused by the new visa regime would have an adverse effect on the business of conducting conventions in USA, and associated tourism. Once again, India should grab the opportunity and open locations such as Hyderabad, Mumbai, and Vishakhapatnam; this could be the big moment for India.
Once the relationship is established, India could present itself as the best option for USA, and other nations, for the future.
Conclusion
Foreign policy of a nation is the open-minded pursuit of national interest. Thinking out-of-the-box, both economically and politically, can turn adverse situations into opportunities. If the issue of H-1B visas is implemented in the manner that Donald Trump wants, then India should seize the occasion to make gains for itself.
Donald Trump has shown to the world that he is not a cultural icon; nonetheless, he is the elected president of USA, irrespective of the fact that he won on a mandate driven by a fractured and insular vote. India should understand what advantages could accrue to it through his election, rather than be carried away by the protests of American liberals.
Prime Minister Modi was one of the first global leaders, who President Trump called after assuming office, and it was a cordial call, unlike some others! India should look towards maximising gains from his promised line of tough action against China and may be even Pakistan. Once the relationship is established, India could present itself as the best option for USA, and other nations, for the future.
It is going to be a period of wait and watch for the Indo-US relations.
Please wait...
