In the closing stages of the primaries in USA, Ms Hillary Clinton, would not have seen herself, in her wildest of dreams, out of the Oval Office in the White House. President Donald trump considered a rank outsider even within the Republican Camp, shattered the dreams and beliefs of all. 20 Jan 2017 saw the commencement of a new era in American foreign, economic, and domestic policies. President Trump has now completed more than 100 days in office, and could continue for many more 100 days, notwithstanding the turbulence in Washington DC, more specifically in White House.
The Trump administration seems to have taken a line on Pakistan that India would approve of. It considers India as a victim of terrorism…
President Trump has entered office at a time of dynamic change; not only USA, but the structure of the international system is witnessing political and economic changes. The feeling of nationalism, leading to protectionism has gained ground in many countries, only to lose out at the ballot box. By comparison, within the United States, the path of managing domestic policies is somewhat clear, but his approach to the US foreign policy continues to be shrouded in fog. There have not been many firm policy proposals about the issues concerning South Asia and beyond. A few statements during his campaign, the reports on his telephone calls to the Prime Ministers of Pakistan and India on assuming office, and some recent statements on India and Pakistan, do indicate a direction to his approach; however, it is the final decision that matters most. The dealings with both China and Russia, too have kept the pundits guessing; what course the Trump administration might take and what it would mean for India, also, is anybody’s guess!
100 Days
During the early stage of the Republican primaries when Indian diplomats spoke to senior US administration members or prominent intelligentsia, they were emphatically told that Donald Trump would never win the party’s nomination, leave alone the presidency! In November 2016, the Indian diplomats learned how wrong the analysis in Washington DC was. After the new US President-elect Donald Trump made his victory speech, Prime Minister Narendra Modi was quick to send congratulations using his favourite social-media platform. By late evening, the Indian PM was one of the first world leaders to speak on the phone with Donald Trump, affirming to take relations to new highs.
As the presidential candidate, Donald Trump had said that he was a “big fan of Hindu” and, if elected, had vowed to take the Indo-US relations to a new high. However, his 100 days in office, admittedly too short a time to judge his performance, do raise questions if he had meant a dose of tough love between the two nations. Ever since the presidential inauguration on 20 January 2017, with his constant utterances of “America for Americans”, resident Indians in America have seen a spurt in hate-crimes, some resulting in unfortunate deaths. Indian IT companies are under constant scrutiny, with their H-1B visa business model under threat of being revoked. India’s trifling trade surplus of $24 bn, even though being ninth in the list, is also under attack, coupled with nations like China, Japan, Korea, Vietnam, Mexico, and Germany, to ascertain if the trade agreements were made unfavourable to USA through unfair negotiations. India has also been combined with China for usurping “billions and billions and billions of dollars” under the garb of climate protection, through the Paris Accord of 2016.
President Trump has called PM Modi a “great man” and has repeatedly expressed an interest in working closely with India, though there have been no significant overtures from his side so far.
Notwithstanding these unfavourable statements and utterances by President Trump, there have been some positives too. Indian Americans are today, placed in high positions in the administration. There has also been an increased communication between the two governments, not just through telephone calls, but also through visits to India of senior functionaries of the Trump presidency.
In addition, the Trump administration also seems to have taken a line on Pakistan that India would approve of. It considers India as a victim of terrorism, with no mention of Pakistan, even after the March bomb-blast in Lahore. While no definite outline of any programme has been mentioned on tackling terror, the US NSA, Gen HR McMaster, during his visit to the region, had mentioned that “Pakistan would require to be less selective in dealing with terrorists than it has been in the past”. Pakistan has been cautioned that US may no longer look the other way to its harbouring terror organisations, such as the Haqqani group; another issue that would affect Pakistan severely is the conversion of American military aid to it to a military loan.
The much-feared sword of revocation of H-1B visas has not yet formally fallen on the Indian IT companies, but the process has commenced through a steady stream of technical readjustments. The premium processing of applications has been suspended, with the raising of qualifications for entry, which means that no longer would Indian companies have the luxury of fast-tracking applications for a smooth entry. This process was followed by an executive order instructing federal agencies to review the entire programme with the aim of ending fraud and misuse, and ensuring that only the most skilled and highest-paid workers were permitted to enter USA. The initial modifications and the subsequent executive order, was obviously passed, keeping in mind President Trump’s over-arching goal of protecting American workers, a pre-election promise.
President Trump has criticised Asian economies like China, Japan, and Korea for cheating USA all these years, through currency manipulation or bad trade practices; India was one of the few countries that escaped his wrath!
The two governments, in the initial 100 days of the Trump administration, and in the subsequent weeks, have displayed a marked indication of frequent engagement, starting with PM Modi’s congratulatory call and President Trump’s reciprocation with a similar call on the election victory of Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), in Uttar Pradesh. Although some have dismissed the call as nothing special, more so since Chancellor Merkel of Germany also received one for her part’s victory in a provincial election, it was, nevertheless, a significant departure from the previous US governments. Subsequent to the initial telephone call, the Indian government hosted high-level functionaries of the newly formed American government. Analysts believe that these meetings, especially between the NSA’s of the two countries, outline the continuation of US-India strategic relationship, and the reconfirmation of India as a major partner.
The Forthcoming Visit of PM Modi to USA
President Barack Obama and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi shared a connection and invested time and political capital to improve the bilateral relationship between the two nations. Many are of the opinion that there is no reason that President Trump and PM Modi cannot find similar success. President Trump has called PM Modi a “great man” and has repeatedly expressed an interest in working closely with India, though there have been no significant overtures from his side so far. Some of President Trump’s views undermine India’s interests and the cooperation PM Modi secured with President Obama. For instance, climate and energy cooperation were top priorities for President Obama and PM Modi. What happens to that legacy as President Trump has now rejected the Paris agreement, as he had been saying all through his campaign? PM Modi has not looked upon it lightly, though it has not been mentioned in as many words, for the sake of his earlier relationship with President Obama; the two leaders had then invested considerable political capital in a more forward-thinking stance on climate change and clean energy.
President Trump has criticised Asian economies like China, Japan, and Korea for cheating USA all these years, through currency manipulation or bad trade practices; India was one of the few countries that escaped his wrath! However, India cannot escape the negative impacts of the trade policies that he proposes to implement; the insignificant trade surplus with America could well diminish if USA erects global trade walls. The Indian trade surplus with USA has more or less remained constant through the last few years; this could be negotiated as a plus point that in terms of real-value, the surplus has actually reduced.
American analysts are known to have remarked that President Trump is the first president since WW I, who has occupied the Oval office, without any geo-political understanding.
Another issue of confrontation with USA could be the curtailment of H-1B visas. India has long sought to increase the number of visas in the non-immigrant specialty-worker programme, even with the previous presidents. The reduction, combined with the additional checks, will adversely affect the Indian IT companies and see a reduced number going to USA for work. India could bypass the restrictions to a certain extent, if the US technology companies accept its invitation to set up office in India.
India has extremely large interests in the security and defence departments in the US. It is quite likely that PM Modi would score points in these two aspects, both in the procurement of weapon platforms and convergence of ideas, with President Trump. He has already acknowledged India, and not Pakistan, as a victim of terrorism, during his recently concluded visit to Saudi Arabia. For Afghanistan, he has displayed a reasonably clear vision in wanting to resolve the nearly two-decade old war, while letting Pakistan know that it is the problem-creator.
Defence sales by USA are different from the trade imbalance issues, and are not likely to be disturbed by President Trump, for he is fixated on creating more jobs and developing the American economy on the old pattern. Yes, it may create an issue for him to permit Lockheed Martin to set up the F-16 manufacturing plant here in India, but that agreement with the Tatas of India is also conditional on the IAF purchasing 100 aircraft.
The challenge for the Indian PM is to find traction with the US president in his own right.
Concluding Remarks
The world is still trying to understand the boundaries that are being laid by the Trump administration, as far as trade, economic relations, national security and tackling terrorism are concerned. It is a work in progress, which Prime Minister Modi initiated on President Trump winning the elections, and has now to push it further, in his visit to USA on 25-26 June 2017, notwithstanding the distractions of the H-1B visas and the Paris Climate Accord.
The interest in India, especially with the previous two presidents, Bush and Obama, was driven by their perception that the country was an important piece in the American security jigsaw. American analysts are known to have remarked that President Trump is the first president since WW I, who has occupied the Oval office, without any geo-political understanding. It remains to see how PM Modi impresses him, without a game of golf or a steak to share, for he has interest in neither. The challenge for the Indian PM is to find traction with the US president in his own right.
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