Indian Defence Review

The inaugural ‘two plus-two’ dialogue between India and the US has now shifted from Washington to Delhi. The strategic top-level talks, agreed upon by US President Donald Trump and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi in June last year, were put off by the US twice this year for unprecedented reasons.

Minister of External Affairs Sushma Swaraj and Raksha Mantri (defence minister) Nirmala Sitharaman will now host the US Secretary of State, Michael R Pompeo, and US Secretary of Defence, James Mattis, in New Delhi on 6 September for 2+2 dialogue.

The 2+2 meeting will cover a broad range of bilateral, regional and global issues of shared interest, with a view to strengthening strategic and security ties between the two countries. The dialogue will also address issues of communications, compatibility and security meeting (COMCASA). The dialogue will be a milestone in the US-India bilateral ties as it will advance the defence cooperation, surveillance helicopters as well as the Quad process involving India, Japan, Australia and the US to work with other nations of South-East Asia for informal grouped protection of shipping lanes in several straits as China’s influence grown in the region.

According to Indian foreign minister Sushma Swaraj, the agenda of the talks is for ‘long-term linkages with a focus on the Afghanistan peace process, terrorism, and maritime security in the Indo-Pacific region’. The bilateral ties have been under stress this year for a number of reasons from Iranian oil imports and Russian defence supplies to visa issues and trade tariffs imposed by Trump on steel and other goods. A key discussion will also take place on the US policy towards countries that do business with Iran and Russia so that there is broad convergence on the issue. It is important to note that India buys Iranian oil while Russia is a major supplier of defence equipment. Some permanent solution will be found on these two crucial issues amicably.

According to reports, the U.S. State Department had earlier told media in Washington that the Trump Administration had asked India and China to stop all imports of Iranian oil by November 4 or face sanctions.

Tehran will always remain an important part of New Delhi’s foreign policy. As Trump takes an extreme view of sanctions against Iran, it may constrain India’s maneuvering space significantly, if New Delhi is not careful. Iran moved back into third place as a source for energy in 2016, soon after the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) unshackled global engagement with Tehran. India needs Iran for link to Central Asia and Russia and it wants to use Iran’s Chabahar port not only as an access point for Afghanistan, but also link it to the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC). Chabahar, the port in the Sistan-Balochistan province on the energy-rich nation’s southern coast is easily accessible from India’s western coast and is increasingly seen as a counter to Pakistan’s Gwadar Port, which is being developed with Chinese investment and is located at distance of around 80 km from Chabahar. Iran will therefore remain key to India’s foreign policy matrix.

India has moved towards acquiring five advance S-400 Triumf Air Defence Missile Systems from Russia costing Rs 39,000 crore despite the looming threat of US sanctions. Once India inducts S-400 systems, the vital installations like nuclear power plants and nuclear arsenal will be well protected and taken care of. These long-range missile systems will tighten its air defence mechanism, particularly all along the nearly 4,000-km-long Sino-India border. India and Russia have worked on a roadmap to get around the financial sanctions flowing out of the recent US law called Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) that seeks to deter countries from buying Russian weapons.

The US on 21 July said it is working with partner countries, including India, to help them identify and avoid engaging in potentially sanctionable activity under the CAATSA.  US defence secretary Jim Mattis on 20 July spoke in support of waivers for sanctions being imposed against nations buying military gear from Russia. The move comes amid concerns that imposing sanctions, particularly in the case of India and other Asian allies, could threaten friendly relationships that the US has been working to bolster in recent years.

The US Congress on 23 July took the call on granting India a waiver after intense lobbying by the US administration, led by Mattis, and Indian diplomats in Washington. The waiver will allow India to purchase Russian defence equipment. New Delhi’s argument was that “a weaker India in this neighbourhood is not in the US interest”. Sources said that putting India under sanctions would weaken the Indo-Pacific strategy of the US. Moreover, China has been assertive and proactive in the Indo-Pacific region. New Delhi also pointed out that the US has been one of the major beneficiaries of India’s diversification in defence procurement, and that trend is likely to continue with India being designated as a “major defence partner” of the US. The final piece of legislation will exempt three countries, India, Indonesia and Vietnam, from the sanctions regime under CAATSA, which seeks to deter countries from buying Russian weapon system or Iranian oil for the time being.  India is now one of the fastest growing economies and is also one of the biggest markets in the world for investment. Therefore, the US cannot afford to implement CAATSA on India, as it will have serious repercussions on the US economy.

At the 2+2 summit India will find itself in ‘catch 22 position’ because it cannot agree with all the unjustified diktats of Trump administration – stop import of oil from Iran, not to purchase defence hardware from Russia, reduce tariffs on the US goods. Trump administration will have to finally decide if the sanctions on India under CAATSA will get a permanent waiver during the 2+2 dialogue. Trump feels the world including India is treating US like a ‘piggy bank’ in dealing with world trade deals. Hopefully, all these differences will be thrashed out amicably during the 6 September 2+2 summit.