Indian Defence Review

Under tremendous pressure of its population to act following the Uri attack, in which the nation lost its 18 brave soldiers (the death toll has already reached 20 with two soldiers succumbing to their injuries in last 15 days) and the frenzy generated by the media, the BJP Govt finally acted on 29 Sep 2016 with a strike on seven terrorist camps inside POK and claimed to have killed 38 terrorists. Two Pakistani soldiers lost their lives in the cross LC firing that was carried out to support the special forces personnel who were tasked to carry out the strike.

A brief sequence of events of 10 days following 18 Sep 2016 would help in understanding the action taken by the Army better. Immediately after the Uri attack, a series of meetings were held and presentations given to the Prime Minister and his cabinet colleagues to weigh the options available to force Pakistan to reign in the terrorists.

During the meetings it possibly emerged that a reconciliatory approach adopted by the Govt over last two years after every militant attack was being seen by the terrorist organisations and their mentors within Pakistan as a sign of weakness. It was soon realised that the Uri attack was different from the other terrorist attacks which targeted the civilian installations/personnel or at worst the Central Armed Police Forces (CAPF). Targeting the Army’s Brigade HQ/units and causing a heavy damage was the proverbial last straw on the camel’s back. Not only had it claimed a huge loss of life, its audacity to strike an army unit was unacceptable. The media, including the social media, created a frenzy never seen before, urging the Govt to act decisively.

It is very unfortunate that the relations between India and Pakistan have remained marred by acrimony, particularly over Kashmir, ever since the two got independence in 1947. A further irritant that got added to Pakistan’s bitterness was the India assisted independence of Bangladesh. During these 69 years Pakistan has done everything – fought four wars with India, supported insurgency in Punjab, hijacked a flight in exchange for release of some of the most dreaded terrorists under India’s control, attacked the Indian Parliament, killed hundreds of innocent people in a large number of attacks on Indian cities like Delhi, Mumbai, Ahmadabad and others, besides conducting thousands of terrorist strikes on security forces and civilians all over J & K – to destabilise and weaken India.

Pakistan has been the most unreliable and wily neighbour that one could have since it has disregarded all treaties – it has violated almost all provisions of the Shimla Agreement – and stabbed India in the back every time a friendly hand has been extended towards it. Kargil War following Mr AB Vajpayee’s Bus journey to Lahore, where ‘Lahore Declaration’ was ratified for peace and stability, and the attack on the Indian Parliament following the Agra Summit, which was organised to resolve long-standing issues between the two countries, bear testimony to her attitude and designs. The Uri attack has been in continuation of this strategy on the part of Pakistan. This time around, however, Pakistan had misread Indian intentions and gone beyond the limit of tolerance exhibited thus far.

Two other events had occupied considerable space in the media before Uri happened. One, the 7th Central Pay Commission (CPC) award and the step motherly treatment given by it to the Services forcing the three Service Chiefs to withhold the implementation of the award in the Armed Forces. Having failed to get the Defence Minister to meet five non negotiable demands/anomalies, the Chiefs were waiting for an audience with the Prime Minister for his intervention. The three Service Chiefs met the Prime Minister in the afternoon of 24 Sep 2016 to review the security situation. However, many felt that the meeting was held to discuss the grievances of the Armed Forces with regard to the award of the 7th CPC. The second was the impending elections in Uttar Pradesh and Punjab during the first half of next year which the BJP wants to win at any cost. A section of the society, duly supported by media, was also propagating that the Prime Minister was more interested in building his image in the international arena than doing enough to solve the internal problems of the country, be it the Patidar agitation in Gujarat or the Jat Andolan of Haryana or the water crisis between Karnataka and Tamil Nadu or solving the latest problem in the Kashmir Valley and so on.

The Prime Minister’s cryptic statement that the killings of our soldiers will definitely by avenged and a lesson will be taught to the perpetrators of this violence at a time of our choosing was received both by the domestic audience as well as by Pakistan as routine saber-rattling. While the Prime Minister’s overall popularity has remained considerably stable over last two years of BJP’s rule (as per US based Pew Research Centre’s latest survey published in Sep 2016, 81 percent Indians hold a favourable view of Mr Modi as the Prime Minister), his handling of terrorism has been perceived as somewhat less favourable (only 61 percent people approve of his handling of terrorism) due to continuation of the policy of strategic restraint with regard to Pakistan. Intense pressure on the Govt exerted by the media and the sentiments of the population expressed through social media this time around forced the Govt to act without any delay.

The Govt’s strategist concluded during the meetings held that a quick retaliatory response would give the Govt tremendous dividend, in improving the image of the Prime Minister as a ‘no-nonsense’ leader pursuing a tough anti terror policy. The Prime Minister ordered the Chief of the Army Staff to carry out the task of avenging the killing of the soldiers as early as was operationally feasible. The Army which has always been keen on a policy of ‘Quid Pro Quo’ vis-a-vis Pakistan immediately accepted the challenge.

The attention of Pakistan and the international community was diverted from the military preparations by carrying out certain activities which were given wide coverage in the media. The Govt went overboard in informing the nation, through the media, about its consideration of options to punish Pakistan by cancelling the MFN status granted to it, abrogating the Indus Water Treaty between India and Pakistan, diplomatically isolating Pakistan, cancelling all cultural and social interactions with her, granting political asylum to the Baloch leaders and so on. To add to all these, the Indian Foreign Minister went to UN General Assembly to declare Pakistan a terrorist state. There were heated debates in the media where speaker after speaker were talking of the soft peddling of the issue by the Govt. All this acted as a good deception while the Army was preparing plans to carry out the ‘surgical strike’ in POK.

The strike took place on 29 Sep, precisely 11 days after the Uri attack. The whole nation burst out in jubilation on getting the news of the Indian Army having killed two (nine by some accounts) soldiers and 38 militants. The effect of the Army’s action has been exactly as was anticipated. The euphoria of the common man and its manifestation through the media has been unparalleled in the recent past. The media which had labelled the Govt weak for inaction just a few days back, hailed the Prime Minister as the ‘lion with a chest measuring 112 inches’, as the strongest leader that the nation has ever produced and India as the strongest nation which will, hereafter, obliterate the existence of anybody who tries to act cheeky with it.

While the former Chief of Army Staff, General Bikram Singh went on air to declare that similar surgical strikes had taken place in the past also, under the previous Govt, they were never publicised as has been done this time. And that is where the crux of the whole problem lies. Agreed that the Govt did not like to be pushed, cowed down and insulted by regular attacks by the Pakistan’s ISI, through its proxies in the form of terrorists, and therefore, acted by launching its military to eliminate some of the terrorists, it should have desisted from shouting at the top of its voice to announce to the whole world that we have done it. It is always good to act to protect one’s honour and pride, but it is equally bad to publicise its military activities in the open domain unless the two nations go on an all out war. Even in war, publicity of actual operations conducted may jeopardise the future operations and is done only when it is to be carried out as part of the propaganda.

One has to accept that our humiliation was complete when Uri happened. While the whole nation felt bad, the army felt awful at the indignation. The nation and the Govt salvaged its pride by its military carrying out the surgical strike. Now, consider how would have the Pakistan army felt whose territory and defences had been violated by our Special Forces to strike, deep inside Pakistan, at the militant training camps. How would have the terrorists, who consider themselves fearless, taken this blow in their guts? They obviously feel as humiliated, if not more, as we felt when our soldiers were killed inside our own territory. To add insult to injury, the Indian national media has started a relentless campaign of unsavoury debates and repulsive utterances by all and sundry in which extremely offensive language is being used, provocative cartoons and jokes are being bandied about and unrealistic free advice is being doled out to one and all, whether one needs it or not.

The moot point is where is this sort of media diatribe going to lead us. A more responsible behaviour on the part of the media would have been to report the matter, but not make it an issue as if its whole existence hangs on this one news item, particularly so because it was a military campaign. The Govt on its part should have broken the news to the media, but also cautioned it not to blow it beyond proportion.

The Pakistani army and the terrorist organisations within Pakistan must be seething in anger at the loss they have suffered. Let no one think that they are not going to strike back and will accept this indignation silently. They too must have been told to avenge the insult at a time of their choosing. If that be so, was the action taken by the Indian Army wrong? Certainly not.

While the action, under the circumstances, was absolutely right, it is more important now to remain vigilant not only by the military establishment, but also by each and every individual living in the country as the Pakistani Army, in the garb of or through the terrorists, will certainly strike. What will be their target? Nobody knows; but it is quite possible that the target may not be a hardened one like a well guarded military base or establishment. Knowing the modus operandi adopted by the terrorists in the past from Mumbai to Malegaon and Delhi to Doda one is quite certain that a soft target like a population centre, crowded place like a shopping mall or railway station or an unguarded civil installation – private or public – may be attacked.

As is usual during this time of the year, Pakistan will continue to activate the LC regularly with the aim of pushing as many terrorists inside India as possible before the winters set in. As a matter of fact, Uri has been an extension of this design of the Pakistan army/terrorists. In this process, skirmishes between the two sides will continue to take place frequently and both will suffer loss of security personnel and people living in the border areas.

The media and some of the hawks on various TV channels have been propagating that now that the ice has been broken and India has decided to strike back if it is hit, every future militants action must be replied with a similar response. Quite a large number of them are in favour of an all out war with Pakistan. Such a course of action, if implemented, will not only result in large scale devastation of men and material, but also cause a serious dent in the economic progress of the country. It will, therefore, be fool hardy to adopt this option.

It may be beneficial, instead, to remain vigilant, improve our intelligence gathering apparatus, introduce larger quantum of latest technologically advanced equipment in our inventory to keep a vigil on the activities of the Pakistan army and her terrorist infrastructure and periodically strike at a time and place of our choosing, if Pakistan continues with her terrorist designs unabated. At the same time, the political establishment must try to diffuse tempers within J & K and reach out to people to find a lasting solution to the worsening situation there. It will not be possible to do it overnight and may take years to achieve, but a sincere beginning has to be made to thwart the designs of our adversary and integrate the Kashmiris into the mainstream.

While diplomatic isolation of Pakistan would pay good dividends in curbing the menace of terrorism, it is unlikely to be fully achievable as the two big powers that matter in today’s international environment – the US and China – are not willing to put requisite pressure on Pakistan for their own vested interests.

USA needs Pakistan to sustain their forces in Afghanistan and to ensure that it has permanent presence in the region to keep a watch on the Central Asian Republics, China and Russia, whereas Chinese long term economic aspirations are tied to the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).

Without the support of both of them, Pakistan cannot be isolated and Pakistan knows this reality too well. Any amount of our cozying up with USA has not yielded any favourable results in this regard, yet we must continue to work in this direction. The Prime Minister’s efforts over last two years in achieving diplomatic isolation of Pakistan have paid good dividend as is evident from the countries which have supported India in boycotting the SAARC summit which was to be held in Pakistan in November 2016 and the way USA, the European Union and host of other countries have condemned Pakistan’s adventurism in Uri. At the same time, India’s response to the Uri attack has been regarded as justifiable for a nation which has been on the receiving end of terrorism for far too long.

Will the Uri attack and consequent surgical strike by the Indian Army be considered a quid pro quo and further attacks on each other cease to take place? It is extremely unlikely as our past experience tells us that silence on the part of Pakistan is generally only a temporary halt in cessation of hostilities, primarily to buy time and prepare for the next, more serious, strike. Every citizen, and not the security forces alone, of the country needs to remain vigilant. Let no one be fooled by any actions or overtures that she may be making at the moment. It has been reported that the NSAs of both India and Pakistan have had a dialogue and promised to ease the tension on the borders. At the same time, Pakistan has been in denial mode regarding the surgical strike executed by the Indian Army. Why should Pakistan be tense, if it is really so?

The Indian Govt’s plans to vacate over 1000 border villages in Punjab and almost similar number in J & K send out a clear signal to Pakistan that India means business and would not hesitate, if war was thrust upon her. People’s response in this regard has been heartening as many of them have stayed on to help out its armed forces in time of crisis. Moreover, it is the harvesting time on both sides of the border and any escalation of the situation would cost both heavily. People also possibly know that a conflict situation would take time to reach a crescendo by which time they would have harvested their crops. The situation, as yet, hasn’t reached point. The need of the hour, therefore, is to act sensibly and ensure that both Govts return to normalcy rather than escalate the tensions.

Pakistan’s nuclear bluff was aptly exposed by our former Prime Minister, Mr Atal Bihari Vajpayee, and we need not worry too much about it. If we suffer huge damage in a nuclear exchange, Pakistan would cease to exist on the planet. To avert ‘Mutual Assured Destruction’ is in the interest of all nations and it is certain that USA and China would also like to ward it off, even though they may not be interested in preventing Pakistan as an exporter of terrorism.

Pakistan has chosen to conduct war by use of terrorists, who are totally dispensable for her. It does not matter to her whether they are killed in her own territory or across the LC/IB. However, our each and every person, whether uniformed or civilian, is precious to us and we cannot afford to lose them. War between the militaries of the two nations must, therefore, be avoided. At the same time, we must make every endeavour to strengthen our economy and build bridges with other nations to blunt Pakistan through means other than military. We must use our economic strength to include trade, investment, energy and defence industry as tools to win diplomatic allies, punish adversaries, and coerce those in between. Till this objective is achieved, we may have to pay back the mischief mongers by paying them back in their own currency.