Indian Defence Review

The possibility of the Chinese naval build up, presumably meant to secure Chinese interests in South China Sea region, could also pose a threat to Indian maritime interests in the longer run. For China has made it very clear that it is not going to leave any stone unturned to exercise its sway over the Indian ocean region.“The Indian Ocean region cannot be referred to as India’s backyard. If the Indian Ocean was India’s backyard then how are the navies of the US, Australia and other countries operating there” is the observation of the Senior Captain Zhao Yia, a Chinese naval warfare strategist and Associate Professor at National Defence University in Beijing.

And on another front, China is focusing increasingly on outer space to sustain the strategic edge of its defence forces. In line with its time tested military doctrine of exploiting the strides in space technology for supporting the defensive and offensive capabilities of PLA(People’s Liberation Army), China is also working towards setting up a 50,000 strong space force under the overall command of Central Military Commission.

China is keen to replace US as the global military supremo through an increasing reliance on space based assets. For instance, Col. Liu Mingfu, a well known Chinese warrior scholar in his popular tome, “The China Dream”, advocates the need for China to overturn the US global dominance to secure peace not just in the region but also worldwide. ” Becoming the strongest nation in the world is China’s goal in the 21st century,” says Mingfu.

In the Chinese quest to attain space dominance as a pathway to establishing its global strategic supremacy, lies the current scramble of the Chinese political leadership to strengthen its satellite networks. Not surprisingly then China has stepped up the frequency of the launch of earth observation satellites featuring a variety of advanced sensors and earth imaging systems. By all means, this strategy could help China overtake USA in satellite surveillance capability in the future. The Yaogan remote sensing satellite constellation appears to be the key Chinese space platform to boost military surveillance for attaining strategic dominance. Against this backdrop, Professor Liu Yu, an expert at Peking’s University of School of Earth and Space Sciences notes that the Chinese project for advanced earth observation satellite systems could be a major game changer in terms of China’s space based surveillance capability.

As it is, the Taiwanese Strait imbroglio of 1995-96 was an event that forced China to expand and refine its satellite based reconnaissance capabilities. Following this, China is known to have strengthened its capability in electro optical, synthetic aperture radar and electronic intelligence capabilities by a substantial extent. “Starting from almost no live surveillance capability ten years ago, today PLA has likely equalled the US’s ability to observe targets from space for real time operations,” say researchers at the Washington DC based World Security Institute. The dominant opinion in the US strategic circles is that sophisticated space platforms being operated by China could limit the extent of US intervention in the event of China planning to capture Taiwan by force.

Against this backdrop, there is a mounting concern in the US political establishment over the rapidly expanding and increasingly sophisticated Chinese space capabilities that could ultimately help this Asian communist giant acquire diplomatic and defence related advantages. Such an eventuality could hurt the long term national security and geo strategic interests of USA. The consensus in the US Defence Department is that China’s modernized military and especially its newly acquired space related capabilities could be put to use in ways that increases China’s ability to gain diplomatic advantage or resolve disputes in its favour and possibly against US national interests. As noted by Ashley Tellis, a senior associate with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, the point is that space has come to acquire a privileged position in China’s military thinking.

The Pentagon is of view that China’s growing space capability is clearly reflected in the frequency of its launches involving satellites with refined capabilities. It believes that China is on a spree of expanding its space based intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance, navigation, meteorological and communications satellite constellations.

With a view to stay ahead of its adversaries in the crucial area of space based capability, China is busy boosting its maritime observation capability through ocean surveillance satellites under China’s 863 State High Technology development plan. There is no denying the point that China’s rapidly expanding satellite surveillance capability could alter power equations in the Asian continent and also minimize the scope of the American defence forces to operate in the region.

Western defence analysts hold the view that China has made rapid strides in putting in place space based ELINT(electronic intelligence) capability and operational tests of the system linking those assets to ground based C4ISR network for covering ground based targets. By enhancing its satellite based capability through the advanced technology space platforms China is also working on augmenting its launch capability. China’s next generation gigantic Long March-5 vehicle capable of lofting a 25-tonne class payload into a near earth orbit will help China step up the frequency of space missions from the newly built ultra modern space port at Wenchang in Hainan island. This spaceport which is now edging towards attaining operational status, is China’s firs coastal space launch centre. For all the three currently operational Chinese space ports are land locked. This ultra modern space port is designed to launch modules of large space vehicles. According to Chinese space experts, the strategic location of this launch complex close to the equator would help increase the payload mass of the launch vehicles taking off from here by a substantial extent.

Meanwhile, China’s home grown Beidou navigation satellite constellation with as many as 35 satellites is expected to be completed by 2020. Right at the moment, the Beidou constellation is supported by 20 satellites. For Chinese defence forces, an uninterrupted access to the navigation capability of Beidou will be a veritable force multiplier. For the most prominent uses to which Beidou would be harnessed include firing of long range missiles and precision weapons with a high degree of accuracy. For the Chinese defence forces, Beidou along with other satellites meant for a variety of application, would hold the key for a well co-ordinated operations of a battle- field strategy by seamlessly integrating weapons systems, missiles, radars, sensor suits, UAVs, fighter jets, transport aircraft, electronics and communications network, logistics and support systems and defence forces spread across and around the world.

Meanwhile, defence analysts observe that the Chinese plan for a permanent space station by the end of this decade could give it a strategic edge in the event of a war involving “space assets”. Indeed the successful accomplishments of the docking exercise carried out by the Chinese astronauts as part of the plan to build an orbiting space station by the end of this decade has military implications in terms of giving a significant thrust to the Chinese space war efforts. An autonomous orbital complex would help China boost it space war efforts by serving as a strategic outpost in the final frontiers. ”The most important point is that China is developing docking techniques and technology, which in turn means precision control for thrusters and the likes which has obvious military and anti satellite implications, “says Dean Chang, a research fellow at the Heritage Foundation’s Asian Studies Centre in Washington.

A fact filled report from Japan’s National Institute for Defence Studies says,“ It is likely that China will continue to actively engage in space development in the years ahead, given that such development serve as a vital means of achieving military competitiveness against US and raising national prestige”. And according to Richard D. Fisher Jr, Senior Fellow, Asian Military Affairs at International Assessment and Strategic Center “It is important to consider that the PLA’s projection into space is an integral part of China’s development of military capabilities to dominate the Asia Pacific region and then to project power globally into 2020s and 2030s.”

Significantly, Chinese warfare strategists look at the space based data as a crucial factor in deciding the outcome of the wars in the future. “This will require China to achieve space supremacy defined as the ability to freely use space and to deny the use of space to adversaries, ”says the report “China Dream, Space Dream: China’s Progress in Space Technologies and Implications for the United States” brought out by the University of California Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation.

Chinese military strategists are fully well aware that sustaining supremacy in space holds the key to reinforcing supremacy on the ground. And the entire Chinese battlefield strategy is being slowly and but surely fine-tuned for being driven from space. For China outer space along with the cyberspace holds the key to stay at the winning edge of the war.