Indian Defence Review

The army has only belatedly picked up momentum in its modernization and expansion plans. The raising of two new divisions in the East and the development of infrastructure in the region will redress the imbalance in the Eastern theatre somewhat. Yet, India’s present levels of preparedness reveal a window of vulnerability which will remain till 2015 or so; after that we are likely to attain some measure of parity with our greatest rival. It is only after that will our armed forces be able to project genuine regional reach.

Yet, while China will remain our greatest threat and rival, notwithstanding the vexed border issue that has plagued relations for over sixty years; we may still come together on sheer economic necessity. China is India’s largest trading partner with trade doubling every year since 2005 to reach $40 billion in 2010. Yet both nations are interdependent on each other and as Dr Manmohan Singh articulated,” There is enough space in the world to accommodate the growth of both India and China”. Perhaps in the Asian century, the elephant and dragon may still dance together and instead of a US-India partnership it could well be an India-China partnership that is the defining relationship of the 21st Century.

Chinas belligerence in the wake of its rising power was expected, but many estimated it to surface around 2015 or so. Chinas muscle flexing may be a little premature and that is to Indias advantage.

Yet while India hopes to play a greater role in global affairs, it is the immediate neighborhood that is cause for concern. The turmoil of Afghanistan and the bleak post-US withdrawal scenario is not a happy augury for the region. The instability which will spill over from its frontiers, actively abetted by Pakistan, will affect India’s economic and military growth. Unfortunately our own role in Afghanistan has been marginalized even though we are one of the greatest stake-holders in Afghanistan’s stability.

Pakistan, unfortunately will retain its nuisance value for some time to come and will be an impediment for any regional initiative led by India, be it economic cooperation, counter terrorism or non-proliferation measures. With the other South Asian nations, the concept of SAARC can be greater strengthened to perhaps culminate in a model like the European Union. But that is many years in the future. The present need is to integrate these nations more fully in a regional economy replicating the “hub and spokes” concept which China has so successfully adopted, using itself as the hub and other nations as the spokes in the wheel of development. However a greater challenge will be to wean nations like Nepal, Myanmar, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh into the Indian fold.

With Shiekh Hasina back in power in Bangladesh, relations have improved considerably, though the specter of Islamic fundamentalism still looms large over the country. Nepal remains in political turmoil; Sri Lanka has emerged victorious after a three decade long internal war but now must consolidate its gains through reconciliation and adjustment. Myanmar’s closed military dictatorship seems to be opening itself up and the release of Aung San Suu Kyi, the ‘Iron Orchid’ of Myanmar may be just the first forerunner for a return to democracy. India’s role to help these nations attain stability will be significant, but it can never be over-bearing.

Global Issues

While India seeks to play a growing role in the region, there are three issues of global significance in which India’s participation would come to the fore. The first is in combating Islamic fundamentalism, which will be the scourge of the world for at least another 20-30 years. India and virtually all its partners have been affected by it- the US by the worldwide attacks on its interests, Europe by the spate of terrorist attacks on its soil, Chechen militancy in Russia and ethnic unrest in the Chinese province of Xinjiang. The common threat can lead to common cause and may pave the way for global initiatives to counter it. Unfortunately India will be in the forefront of this battle and will be sucked deeper into it in the coming years.

Nuclear non-proliferation is another issue in which India would have a significant role. The concept of universal nuclear disarmament once propagated by India is fast gaining credence as the world gradually moves towards a reduction of its nuclear stockpiles. Yet as the threat of nuclear wars recede, the likelihood of their use by terrorists has actually increased, as was articulated by Obama during the Nuclear Security Summit in April. With the Indo-US nuclear deal, India is now an acknowledged nuclear power with a proven record of non-proliferation. A logical next step is an entry into NPT as a Nuclear Weapon State and into the prestigious Nuclear Suppliers Group.

Yet as India makes positive and meaningful strides for a more enlarged role in regional and world affairs, there are many glaring issues that still remain unaddressed.

While the latter seems likely, the former will meet great opposition, not only from China but also other nuclear-armed nations like Pakistan, North Korea and even Iran. India’s entry will actually strengthen the nonproliferation regime and enable India to be part of global initiatives for reduction of nuclear weaponry and measures to reduce the possibility of these weapons reaching terrorist hands.

Climate change, the gravest threat to the world after a nuclear holocaust or an asteroid strike, is another area where India has a significant role. At Copenhagen, India agreed to a voluntary 20-35 percent reduction of emission, although along with China, it vehemently countered the US proposal for mandatory verification of emission. Yet just a few months later, India agreed to United Nations regulated verification at Cancun, giving rise to the belief that perhaps it has succumbed to US and western persuasion.

However, in spite of the political flak it has generated, this is a step in the right direction. India’s developing economy contributes a significantly smaller amount of emissions vis-à-vis other nations; China emits 23 percent of global greenhouse gases; the US share is 22 percent while India contributes to only 5 percent of the total emission. Our per capita Carbon Dioxide emission is 1.2 metric tons per year, against a global average of 4 metric tons. (The US average is 9). Yet India has to be party to any global initiative on climate change, though how the reduction of emission will impact our growth trajectory has to be carefully weighed in balance.

Yet as India makes positive and meaningful strides for a more enlarged role in regional and world affairs, there are many glaring issues that still remain unaddressed. The inequitable distribution of wealth has already caused social problems of immense magnitude and the Left Wing Extremism sweeping the hinterland is but a manifestation of this. Internal unrest has to be curbed, especially in Kashmir and the North East. The population time bomb should be seen in the larger perspective. The young, vibrant population which is now spurring India’s growth will become an ageing population in another 30-40 years and our natural resources and inadequate infrastructure will be unable to keep pace with their needs.

Critical needs like education and health care too have been neglected which will contribute to the growing disparity. Finally the rampant corruption and the skewed logic of coalition politics can greatly tarnish its image and credibility. The internal malaises of India have often been swept beneath the carpet as we search for external successes. But these cankers will pull back India’s growth, widen the fissures from within and prevent us from attaining the role that is seen for ourselves through our own vision and in the eyes of the world.