China’s rise and rise seems unstoppable and it will take over as the world’s largest economy by 2040 or so. Militarily it has now reached a position where it can begin asserting itself more aggressively. The US decline will be precipitated by their withdrawal from Afghanistan sometime around 2011 and the loss of stature that will follow in its wake. In all probability they will be sucked into Yemen and Sudan thereafter (where US Special Forces and drones are already operating). Already over-committed, it will still try to maintain its dwindling influence in the Asia- Pacific region and in that both India and China come to play.
The US had hoped for a grand alliance of G2, with the US and China as future world leaders. This much touted plan has receded with the souring of relations between the two nations on issues as diverse as climate change, nuclear proliferation, Chinese support to North Korea, the artificial devaluation of Chinese currency, sale of US weapons to Taiwan and human rights. (The latest being the award of the Nobel Peace Prize to the Chinese dissident Liu Xiaobo). Instead of China, it is now India that has become a “natural ally” with whom the US hopes to form “the defining partnership of the 21st Century” .
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It is not only the US that is shifting its focus away from China towards India. China’s recent belligerence has scared most of its neighbors. Relations with South Korea have soured in the wake of its continual support to North Korea’s misadventures. With Japan, an encounter between a Chinese fishing trawler and a Japanese patrol vessel around the disputed Senkaku islands evoked an unusually sharp Chinese response including the demand for an apology even after the ship was released and the halt of crucial rare earth metals essentially required by Japan. China’s belligerence in the wake of its rising power was expected, but many estimated it to surface around 2015 or so. China’s muscle flexing may be a little premature and that is to India’s advantage.
Indias “Look East” policy is paying dividends with many of the regional powers now gradually turning towards India as a counter-balance to Chinas growing aggressiveness.
India’s “Look East” policy is paying dividends with many of the regional powers now gradually turning towards India as a counter-balance to China’s growing aggressiveness. Japan’s recently released security doctrine identified the main threat as the rise of China and emphasized on ties with India to help counter it. In fact, military co-operation with India has been placed as one of the cornerstones of its defense policy. Other nations in the neighborhood- Malaysia, Indonesia, Vietnam and South Korea too are turning to India and the increasing military cooperation not only in the Indian Ocean, but even beyond up to the Straits of Malacca and the Sea of Japan is an indicator of India’s growing role across the entire Asia-Pacific rim.
It is not only within the region that we see expectations of a greater role for India. The recent visits by the heads of state of USA, Russia, France, UK, China and Germany covered not only economic issues but carried promises of strategic partnerships as well. Deals worth over $60 billion have been signed ($10 billion with the US, $20 billion with France, $16 billion with China and an expected $15 billion with Russia). In fact, our increased defense procurement, with a shopping budget of $50 billion for 2010-2012, has made India the very lifeline for most foreign companies.
In return, common strategic concerns in areas as diverse as terrorism, nuclear energy and non-proliferation, space cooperation, energy security and anti-piracy have been addressed. What is significant is that India has not committed itself to an alliance with any one nation, but has entered into a slew of agreements with virtually every major power-opening the possibility of enhanced strategic cooperation, either individually or collectively.
Amongst the indicators of a greater strategic role for India was the support it has received for its aspirations for a permanent seat at the United Nations Security Council. India was recently elected to the Security Council as a non-permanent member by an over- whelming majority, securing 187 votes out of 191and a permanent seat seems to be a logical next step. The changing realities of the 21st Century include India, Japan and Germany as major world powers and the UN has to evolve to acknowledge the fact. India’s right to a place on the table has been endorsed by the US, France, Russia and UK, four of its permanent members and it seems likely that even China will come on board- albeit with major concessions elsewhere.
Role and Capabilities
But then, while the world and we ourselves see us as a regional power — how well equipped are we for the role? In the present power equation we are a poor second to China. China’s economy is estimated at over $ 8 trillion compared to our own of $ 3.75 trillion. Even with our impressive growth rate we will forever play catch up. Militarily, China has stolen a two decade march over us. With a mammoth defense budget (Revealed as $78 billion for 2009, but its actual military spending is estimated to be over $150 billion) China’s armed forces are in the final stages of completing their modernization program. On the contrary, our defense forces have fallen way behind in the two wasted decades where virtually no new procurements took place.
The dwindling Air Force has shrunk to 32.5 squadrons against a sanctioned strength of 38.5 squadrons. There is a requirement of 600 aircraft to counter a future two-front threat and the present fleet of just around 425 frontline aircraft is woefully inadequate. Worse over 50 percent of the equipment is considered obsolete and in the process of being phased out. The purchase of 126 Medium Multi-role Combat aircraft will improve the equation, but these aircraft are likely to be fully operational only by 2015 or so – till that period these glaring gaps will remain.
A logical next step is an entry into NPT as a Nuclear Weapon State and into the prestigious Nuclear Suppliers Group. While the latter seems likely, the former will meet great opposition”¦
The navy too does not have the true Blue Water capability that it seeks. The induction of the nuclear powered submarine INS ARIHANT will finally provide India with the capability to field a complete triad of nuclear delivery means by 2012- a capability which will increase with the induction of an additional four nuclear powered submarines by 2015 or so. But that is not enough. The last Foxtrot class submarine INS VAGLI, retired last month and with it the fleet is down to just 14 ageing diesel electric submarines. Even if the six Scorpenes roll out between 2015 and 2020 as scheduled, with the present rate of attrition we will be down to just eight or nine submarines by 2020, against a projected requirement of 18 conventional submarines.
In comparison, China’s 62 submarine fleet (including 10 nuclear powered ones) have given it a potent global reach which we cannot hope to match. Yet on the plus side, the navy has 30 warships and six submarines on order, including the much awaited “Admiral Gorshkov” or INS Vikramaditya in its Indian avatar and the 40,000 tonne Indigenous Aircraft Carrier (IAC) being built at Cochin. With the induction of this equipment the navy could become a three dimensional, blue water force with a fleet of around 140 surface and sub-surface combatants, which will then provide a genuine naval reach across the Indian Ocean rim by 2020 or so.
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