Over the past five months or so, in spite of surfacing corruption charges, a virtual paralysis of parliament and sense of political drift in the country, India has had much to cheer about. The Commonwealth games, through tainted, went off spectacularly, showcasing India to the world. The economy is on a roll, with the agricultural and industrial sectors picking up unexpected momentum. To highlight its growing stature, a slew of world leaders visited India, including the heads of all five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council. They all had the same message. India is not only rising, it has already risen and in its rise the world sees a more vibrant role for India in the coming decades.
There are many reasons for the new found interest in India—foremost being its economy. With a GDP of $ 3.75 trillion in purchasing power parity, it is the world’s fourth largest economy after USA, China and Japan. An annual growth rate of 9 percent- that too in the time of a global recession, means that its economy is expanding at $ 350 billion per annum; equal to Belgium’s entire GDP. With its current rate of growth, the Indian economy will touch $ 8 trillion by 2020, making it the world’s third largest economy, and will add $ 800 billion – an amount equivalent to the entire Australian economy-to its GDP every year.
The figures are impressive, but there is more. Its burgeoning population of 1.17 billion young, hard working, English (well, actually Hinglish) speaking people provides a talent pool to the world. Its 800 million strong middle class is an untapped market irresistible to the world’s major companies. Militarily too, its 1.3 million strong army, the world’s fourth largest air force and a navy with increasing reach gives it a clout that cannot be denied. The nation is now an accepted nuclear power with a proven track record of responsible non-proliferation. It is strategically located to dominate the Indian Ocean, through which 70 percent of the world’s oil flows, so vital for the region and the world. India has all the ingredients to play a major role in the coming decades, but is India really ready for the role and more significantly, what role does it see for itself?
The New World Order
If the last century was the famously proclaimed, “American Century” – this one is the Asian Century with India and China as its main players. The previous era was shaped after the hierarchy of victors of the Second World War with USA and the Soviet Union as competing super-powers and the lesser powers of UK, France and China as adjuncts. The ideological conflict of communism versus democracy shaped the contours of the new order, the open rivalry between the two super powers manifesting itself in wars through their proxies in Korea, Vietnam, Cuba, Algeria and finally Afghanistan.
India has all the ingredients to play a major role in the coming decades, but is India really ready”¦?
Then the Soviet Union imploded; the Berlin Wall came down and the ideological divide which defined an earlier era disappeared. Perhaps the Soviet Union collapsed too suddenly and too swiftly. Its dramatic demise was hailed as a US victory and Ronald Reagan famously announced “The Cold War has not just ended; it has been won”. The ease and complete magnitude of the victory perhaps initiated a state of supreme confidence in the world’s sole super power which tried to impose its concept of Pax Americana on the world. It was this misplaced arrogance that led it to Kosovo, Grenada and then Iraq in 1993. Then the planes crashed into the twin towers on 9/11 and the world order was rudely shaken again.
This single act changed the complexion of the world and redrew the power equations all over again. The US plunged headlong into Afghanistan and then made the cardinal error of entering into a needless war with Iraq. Its “War against Terror” proved unwinnable both in Afghanistan and Iraq and it emerged with little to show and much loss of face. Along with the blow to its military prestige came the biggest recession since the 1930’s, which plunged the US, European and many of the Asian economies into a tailspin. In a span of just more than a decade the US plummeted from being the sole super power to a state of “terminal decline.” And as it tries desperately to hold on to its mantle of fading super-powerdom, the world power equations have slowly gravitated towards other centers, most notably China, India and Russia.
Indias right to a place on the table has been endorsed by the US, France, Russia and UK, four of its permanent members and it seems likely that even China will come on board”¦
As the US was funneling its energies in its war, China and India have surged ahead in the strength of their opening markets and burgeoning population. Simultaneously other power blocs are emerging. Russia rediscovered itself with new found oil revenues and its brutal invasion of Georgia in 2007 shows that it is willing to assert itself on the European and the World stage once again. The European Union is emerging as another power centre but will always remain an economic entity and not really a strategic one.
Brazil, South Africa, Germany and Japan are coming forward as economic and military powers, but their areas of influence are confined to their immediate neighborhood and it is unlikely that they will exert any significant leverage of global significance. Analysts have identified the key nations of BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China) along with Japan, South Africa and Germany whose rise is but inevitable. In this changing power equations, USA and China are the dominant players and natural rivals for world super-powerdom and it is India’s role that can tilt the scales either way.
China’s rise and rise seems unstoppable and it will take over as the world’s largest economy by 2040 or so. Militarily it has now reached a position where it can begin asserting itself more aggressively. The US decline will be precipitated by their withdrawal from Afghanistan sometime around 2011 and the loss of stature that will follow in its wake. In all probability they will be sucked into Yemen and Sudan thereafter (where US Special Forces and drones are already operating). Already over-committed, it will still try to maintain its dwindling influence in the Asia- Pacific region and in that both India and China come to play.
The US had hoped for a grand alliance of G2, with the US and China as future world leaders. This much touted plan has receded with the souring of relations between the two nations on issues as diverse as climate change, nuclear proliferation, Chinese support to North Korea, the artificial devaluation of Chinese currency, sale of US weapons to Taiwan and human rights. (The latest being the award of the Nobel Peace Prize to the Chinese dissident Liu Xiaobo). Instead of China, it is now India that has become a “natural ally” with whom the US hopes to form “the defining partnership of the 21st Century” .
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It is not only the US that is shifting its focus away from China towards India. China’s recent belligerence has scared most of its neighbors. Relations with South Korea have soured in the wake of its continual support to North Korea’s misadventures. With Japan, an encounter between a Chinese fishing trawler and a Japanese patrol vessel around the disputed Senkaku islands evoked an unusually sharp Chinese response including the demand for an apology even after the ship was released and the halt of crucial rare earth metals essentially required by Japan. China’s belligerence in the wake of its rising power was expected, but many estimated it to surface around 2015 or so. China’s muscle flexing may be a little premature and that is to India’s advantage.
Indias “Look East” policy is paying dividends with many of the regional powers now gradually turning towards India as a counter-balance to Chinas growing aggressiveness.
India’s “Look East” policy is paying dividends with many of the regional powers now gradually turning towards India as a counter-balance to China’s growing aggressiveness. Japan’s recently released security doctrine identified the main threat as the rise of China and emphasized on ties with India to help counter it. In fact, military co-operation with India has been placed as one of the cornerstones of its defense policy. Other nations in the neighborhood- Malaysia, Indonesia, Vietnam and South Korea too are turning to India and the increasing military cooperation not only in the Indian Ocean, but even beyond up to the Straits of Malacca and the Sea of Japan is an indicator of India’s growing role across the entire Asia-Pacific rim.
It is not only within the region that we see expectations of a greater role for India. The recent visits by the heads of state of USA, Russia, France, UK, China and Germany covered not only economic issues but carried promises of strategic partnerships as well. Deals worth over $60 billion have been signed ($10 billion with the US, $20 billion with France, $16 billion with China and an expected $15 billion with Russia). In fact, our increased defense procurement, with a shopping budget of $50 billion for 2010-2012, has made India the very lifeline for most foreign companies.
In return, common strategic concerns in areas as diverse as terrorism, nuclear energy and non-proliferation, space cooperation, energy security and anti-piracy have been addressed. What is significant is that India has not committed itself to an alliance with any one nation, but has entered into a slew of agreements with virtually every major power-opening the possibility of enhanced strategic cooperation, either individually or collectively.
Amongst the indicators of a greater strategic role for India was the support it has received for its aspirations for a permanent seat at the United Nations Security Council. India was recently elected to the Security Council as a non-permanent member by an over- whelming majority, securing 187 votes out of 191and a permanent seat seems to be a logical next step. The changing realities of the 21st Century include India, Japan and Germany as major world powers and the UN has to evolve to acknowledge the fact. India’s right to a place on the table has been endorsed by the US, France, Russia and UK, four of its permanent members and it seems likely that even China will come on board- albeit with major concessions elsewhere.
Role and Capabilities
But then, while the world and we ourselves see us as a regional power — how well equipped are we for the role? In the present power equation we are a poor second to China. China’s economy is estimated at over $ 8 trillion compared to our own of $ 3.75 trillion. Even with our impressive growth rate we will forever play catch up. Militarily, China has stolen a two decade march over us. With a mammoth defense budget (Revealed as $78 billion for 2009, but its actual military spending is estimated to be over $150 billion) China’s armed forces are in the final stages of completing their modernization program. On the contrary, our defense forces have fallen way behind in the two wasted decades where virtually no new procurements took place.
The dwindling Air Force has shrunk to 32.5 squadrons against a sanctioned strength of 38.5 squadrons. There is a requirement of 600 aircraft to counter a future two-front threat and the present fleet of just around 425 frontline aircraft is woefully inadequate. Worse over 50 percent of the equipment is considered obsolete and in the process of being phased out. The purchase of 126 Medium Multi-role Combat aircraft will improve the equation, but these aircraft are likely to be fully operational only by 2015 or so – till that period these glaring gaps will remain.
A logical next step is an entry into NPT as a Nuclear Weapon State and into the prestigious Nuclear Suppliers Group. While the latter seems likely, the former will meet great opposition”¦
The navy too does not have the true Blue Water capability that it seeks. The induction of the nuclear powered submarine INS ARIHANT will finally provide India with the capability to field a complete triad of nuclear delivery means by 2012- a capability which will increase with the induction of an additional four nuclear powered submarines by 2015 or so. But that is not enough. The last Foxtrot class submarine INS VAGLI, retired last month and with it the fleet is down to just 14 ageing diesel electric submarines. Even if the six Scorpenes roll out between 2015 and 2020 as scheduled, with the present rate of attrition we will be down to just eight or nine submarines by 2020, against a projected requirement of 18 conventional submarines.
In comparison, China’s 62 submarine fleet (including 10 nuclear powered ones) have given it a potent global reach which we cannot hope to match. Yet on the plus side, the navy has 30 warships and six submarines on order, including the much awaited “Admiral Gorshkov” or INS Vikramaditya in its Indian avatar and the 40,000 tonne Indigenous Aircraft Carrier (IAC) being built at Cochin. With the induction of this equipment the navy could become a three dimensional, blue water force with a fleet of around 140 surface and sub-surface combatants, which will then provide a genuine naval reach across the Indian Ocean rim by 2020 or so.
The army has only belatedly picked up momentum in its modernization and expansion plans. The raising of two new divisions in the East and the development of infrastructure in the region will redress the imbalance in the Eastern theatre somewhat. Yet, India’s present levels of preparedness reveal a window of vulnerability which will remain till 2015 or so; after that we are likely to attain some measure of parity with our greatest rival. It is only after that will our armed forces be able to project genuine regional reach.
Yet, while China will remain our greatest threat and rival, notwithstanding the vexed border issue that has plagued relations for over sixty years; we may still come together on sheer economic necessity. China is India’s largest trading partner with trade doubling every year since 2005 to reach $40 billion in 2010. Yet both nations are interdependent on each other and as Dr Manmohan Singh articulated,” There is enough space in the world to accommodate the growth of both India and China”. Perhaps in the Asian century, the elephant and dragon may still dance together and instead of a US-India partnership it could well be an India-China partnership that is the defining relationship of the 21st Century.
Chinas belligerence in the wake of its rising power was expected, but many estimated it to surface around 2015 or so. Chinas muscle flexing may be a little premature and that is to Indias advantage.
Yet while India hopes to play a greater role in global affairs, it is the immediate neighborhood that is cause for concern. The turmoil of Afghanistan and the bleak post-US withdrawal scenario is not a happy augury for the region. The instability which will spill over from its frontiers, actively abetted by Pakistan, will affect India’s economic and military growth. Unfortunately our own role in Afghanistan has been marginalized even though we are one of the greatest stake-holders in Afghanistan’s stability.
Pakistan, unfortunately will retain its nuisance value for some time to come and will be an impediment for any regional initiative led by India, be it economic cooperation, counter terrorism or non-proliferation measures. With the other South Asian nations, the concept of SAARC can be greater strengthened to perhaps culminate in a model like the European Union. But that is many years in the future. The present need is to integrate these nations more fully in a regional economy replicating the “hub and spokes” concept which China has so successfully adopted, using itself as the hub and other nations as the spokes in the wheel of development. However a greater challenge will be to wean nations like Nepal, Myanmar, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh into the Indian fold.
With Shiekh Hasina back in power in Bangladesh, relations have improved considerably, though the specter of Islamic fundamentalism still looms large over the country. Nepal remains in political turmoil; Sri Lanka has emerged victorious after a three decade long internal war but now must consolidate its gains through reconciliation and adjustment. Myanmar’s closed military dictatorship seems to be opening itself up and the release of Aung San Suu Kyi, the ‘Iron Orchid’ of Myanmar may be just the first forerunner for a return to democracy. India’s role to help these nations attain stability will be significant, but it can never be over-bearing.
Global Issues
While India seeks to play a growing role in the region, there are three issues of global significance in which India’s participation would come to the fore. The first is in combating Islamic fundamentalism, which will be the scourge of the world for at least another 20-30 years. India and virtually all its partners have been affected by it- the US by the worldwide attacks on its interests, Europe by the spate of terrorist attacks on its soil, Chechen militancy in Russia and ethnic unrest in the Chinese province of Xinjiang. The common threat can lead to common cause and may pave the way for global initiatives to counter it. Unfortunately India will be in the forefront of this battle and will be sucked deeper into it in the coming years.
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Nuclear non-proliferation is another issue in which India would have a significant role. The concept of universal nuclear disarmament once propagated by India is fast gaining credence as the world gradually moves towards a reduction of its nuclear stockpiles. Yet as the threat of nuclear wars recede, the likelihood of their use by terrorists has actually increased, as was articulated by Obama during the Nuclear Security Summit in April. With the Indo-US nuclear deal, India is now an acknowledged nuclear power with a proven record of non-proliferation. A logical next step is an entry into NPT as a Nuclear Weapon State and into the prestigious Nuclear Suppliers Group.
Yet as India makes positive and meaningful strides for a more enlarged role in regional and world affairs, there are many glaring issues that still remain unaddressed.
While the latter seems likely, the former will meet great opposition, not only from China but also other nuclear-armed nations like Pakistan, North Korea and even Iran. India’s entry will actually strengthen the nonproliferation regime and enable India to be part of global initiatives for reduction of nuclear weaponry and measures to reduce the possibility of these weapons reaching terrorist hands.
Climate change, the gravest threat to the world after a nuclear holocaust or an asteroid strike, is another area where India has a significant role. At Copenhagen, India agreed to a voluntary 20-35 percent reduction of emission, although along with China, it vehemently countered the US proposal for mandatory verification of emission. Yet just a few months later, India agreed to United Nations regulated verification at Cancun, giving rise to the belief that perhaps it has succumbed to US and western persuasion.
However, in spite of the political flak it has generated, this is a step in the right direction. India’s developing economy contributes a significantly smaller amount of emissions vis-à-vis other nations; China emits 23 percent of global greenhouse gases; the US share is 22 percent while India contributes to only 5 percent of the total emission. Our per capita Carbon Dioxide emission is 1.2 metric tons per year, against a global average of 4 metric tons. (The US average is 9). Yet India has to be party to any global initiative on climate change, though how the reduction of emission will impact our growth trajectory has to be carefully weighed in balance.
Yet as India makes positive and meaningful strides for a more enlarged role in regional and world affairs, there are many glaring issues that still remain unaddressed. The inequitable distribution of wealth has already caused social problems of immense magnitude and the Left Wing Extremism sweeping the hinterland is but a manifestation of this. Internal unrest has to be curbed, especially in Kashmir and the North East. The population time bomb should be seen in the larger perspective. The young, vibrant population which is now spurring India’s growth will become an ageing population in another 30-40 years and our natural resources and inadequate infrastructure will be unable to keep pace with their needs.
Critical needs like education and health care too have been neglected which will contribute to the growing disparity. Finally the rampant corruption and the skewed logic of coalition politics can greatly tarnish its image and credibility. The internal malaises of India have often been swept beneath the carpet as we search for external successes. But these cankers will pull back India’s growth, widen the fissures from within and prevent us from attaining the role that is seen for ourselves through our own vision and in the eyes of the world.
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