Indian Defence Review

That India has apparently given itself scope for nuclear retaliation that is not restricted to “˜assured destruction, it would be able to respond to such an outrage in a more rational, balanced and commensurate manner. Presently, the expectation of retaliation of a “˜massive order has certain drawbacks.

Since India’s succinctly phrased doctrine does mention how it would respond to nuclear ‘first use’ by an adversary in case of ‘first use’ not amounting to ‘first strike’, it can be interpreted that other options of response have not been ruled out. In not being ruled out, these can be expected to be ruled in by Pakistani planners. Therefore, given that the doctrine lends itself to such interpretation, there is a possibility of Pakistan not being deterred from ‘first use’ in the most likely manner discussed – that of tactical use in a defensive mode.

That India has apparently given itself scope for nuclear retaliation that is not restricted to ‘assured destruction’, it would be able to respond to such an outrage in a more rational, balanced and commensurate manner. Presently, the expectation of retaliation of a ‘massive’ order has certain drawbacks. These are that it would not be commensurate; would be disproportionate and indiscriminate; and would be escalatory in exposing Indian population centers to Pakistani counter value targeting in vengeance attacks. Therefore, in case of a ‘flexible’ punitive retaliation,2 India could think through its response to include going ‘massive’ if she so chooses.

It could thus be able to respond keeping two overriding principles in mind. One is that it would be a democratic government’s responsibility not to wantonly increase the nuclear threat faced by its citizens. Second is that keeping the escalation risk at the lowest manageable level makes sense if Limited War was what was intended at the outset of the conflict. That it has acquired nuclear dimensions should not imply default abandonment of initial aims.

Three recommendations emerge. One is that limitation should not be abandoned in case of a war, originally begun as a Limited War, turning nuclear. Second, is that greater clarity needs to attend India’s nuclear doctrine. Is it one of ‘assured destruction’ or can it also be interpreted, as done here, as one countenancing ‘flexible’ punitive response? Lastly, moving to the latter doctrine explicitly is recommended.

‘Flexible’ punitive retaliation is the recommended doctrine for the reason that in a conflict situation the decision maker should have options of response. In case a doctrine were to tie down the decision maker to a counter value response – which is how the euphemism ‘unacceptable damage’ is usually interpreted – then the decision maker would lose flexibility. It would render vulnerable Indian cities to like retaliation. In case India were to degrade also the adversary’s nuclear capability through an overwhelming counter force attack, the response with the few weapons then available with Pakistan would most likely be counter value. To avoid such escalation, flexibility in response options should be worked into the doctrine from before itself.

The only impact would be on Indias stated policy that nuclear weapons are political weapons, not meant for military use. While this is Indias considered position, potential adversaries see nuclear weapons differently. Pakistan has reserved for itself the possibility of “˜first use.

This does not decrease deterrence since Pakistan would be assured of receiving a counter strike most likely of greater severity. India’s escalation dominance at both conventional and nuclear levels would help avert further escalation. In any case, in ‘flexible response’ the option of responding massively is in any case with the political decision maker. The arguments for ‘graduated deterrence’ that were witnessed in the Cold War setting in the Sixties may be considered.3 The chief argument then was that the decision maker should not be restricted to ‘massive retaliation’ as the only response option, since it may result in self-deterrence. This stands good in the Indian case too.

The only impact would be on India’s stated policy that nuclear weapons are political weapons, not meant for military use. While this is India’s considered position, potential adversaries see nuclear weapons differently. Pakistan has reserved for itself the possibility of ‘first use’. Therefore, in the eventuality of Pakistan exercising the option, India would be forced to respond militarily. This would have to be a befitting response that considers Pakistani compulsions, the strategic context, operational situation and international opinion. This means politico–military consideration of nuclear use cannot exclude military utility of nuclear weapons.

In any case, the manner of administering sufficient punishment in retaliation would require thinking through of target sets. This is a military exercise for which the Strategic Forces Command has been raised and tasked. Military usage is inherent and practicability of nuclear use contributes to deterrence. While India’s position is unexceptionable that nuclear weapons are for deterrence, on deterrence breaking down through enemy nuclear ‘first use’, they are available for military use. Therefore, the understanding that nuclear weapons are ‘political weapons’ should not be taken too far as to impact doctrinal thinking.

Conclusion

Such ‘thinking through’ of nuclear dangers and appropriate response sets requires to be done prior to being faced with the fait accompli. India’s nuclear doctrine is permissive of two interpretations.4 Clarity is required since ‘transparency’ and ‘communication’ are attributes of credible deterrence.

A ‘flexible’ punitive retaliatory doctrine is recommended. This is feasible in light of nuclear developments since the doctrine was promulgated over half a decade ago. Secondly, it is in keeping with India’s Limited War doctrine.

The conventional doctrine may trigger the nuclear threshold in a lower order enemy nuclear use. This may require India to respond commensurately and thereby maintain and achieve its limited war aims. Lastly, assessment of ecological fallout of a ‘massive’ strike has not been done.

It can be estimated to be of critical consequence for India, given the proximity with Pakistan. Therefore, there is a need to think in terms of Limited Nuclear War in case one is thrust on India.

Notes

1. Press release on India ’s nuclear doctrine is available at: http://meaindia.nic.in/pressrelease/2003/01/04pr01.htm
2. Not to be confused with the NATO doctrine of ‘flexible response’.
3. Freedman, L., The Evolution of Nuclear Strategy; London, Macmillan, 1981, p. 112.
4. Ahmed, A., ‘The need for clarity in India ’s nuclear doctrine’, available at: http://www.idsa.in/publications/stratcomments/AliAhmed111108 .htm