The surprise two-day visit by General VK Singh, MoS (EAM) to North Korea on May 15-16, 2018, has evoked much interest. India has diplomatic relations with North Korea since 1973, but this was the first high-level visit from India in two decades plus. As per MEA, the visit was on the invitation of North Korea. During the visit, VK Singh held discussions with Vice President of the Presidium of the Supreme People’s Assembly Kim Yong Dae, Foreign Minister Ri Yong Ho, Minister of Culture Pak Chun Nam and Vice Foreign Minister Choe Hui Chol. VK Singh discussed a range of issues including developments on the Korean Peninsula, nuclear proliferation with particularly India’s concerns of nuclear proliferation in India’s neighborhood (read Pakistan) besides trade and commerce. He also reiterated India’s support to the joint peace initiative by both Koreas, saying it both sides efforts for establishment of peace and prosperity on the Korean Peninsula were encouraging. From the North Korean side, assurances were given that as a friendly country, Pyongyang will never allow any action that would create concerns for India’s security; though India has since long voiced its concern over North Korea-Pakistan missile and nuclear collaboration with Pakistan for valid reasons.
VK Singh’s visit was considered surprise because just recently, in March 2018, India had imposed fresh restrictions on trade with North Korea, in line with the restrictions imposed by the UN; all trade of exports of defence, space and technological materials, and training of North Korean officials banned between the two countries, including travel ban on officials suspected to be involved in nuclear proliferation activities. India has been North Korea’s second biggest trade partner, after China. As per the Directorate General of Foreign Trade, India’s export to North Korea was $76.52 million and import stood at $132.53 million in 2014-15. But bilateral trade between India and North Korea declined to $133.43 million in 2016-17 from $198.78 million in the previous fiscal. Yet, India had declined an indirect call by US to shut down its embassy in Pyongyang in 2017; EAM Sushma Swaraj told the visiting US Secretary of State in open discussion that India’s diplomatic presence would be helpful to the US, in case Washington wanted to convey a message to the North Korean regime.
The visit by VK Singh was in the backdrop of: impending Trump-Kim meet in Singapore; Trump’s warning to Kim to de-nuclearize or face fate like Libya, and; Kim cancelling the meet with South Korea. The Indian initiative was because of prospects of peace on the Korean Peninsula. Significantly, Atul M Gotsurve, new Indian Ambassador to North Korea had presented his credentials just one day before VK Singh’s visit – Gotsurve being the senior most IFS officer (2004 batch) serving with MEA.
It is evident that India wants to upgrade its bilateral relations with North Korea, in line with India’s Act East Policy (AEP). VK Singh’s visit perhaps was also to gauge the sincerity of North Korea’s recent moves. Since the invite for the visit came from North Korea, obviously latter are interested to take forward the relationship too, as the country is opening up. US Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo recent mentioned possibility of US investments in North Korea, so why shouldn’t India do so? Among the multiple investment opportunities, is Kim Jong-un’s pet project – North Korea’s Rason SEZ established in 1992 where presently China, Russia and Mongolia have invested, but progress has been slow.
India condemned North Korea as aggressor during the Korean War, supported UN resolution and military operations against North Korea during that period, but being neutral nation did not send military assistance to South Korea under UN Resolution 84. India was Chairman of the Neutral Nations Repatriation Commission. Interestingly, India had also chaired the nine-member UN Commission that monitored elections in undivided Korea during 1947. India has always been for Korean unification but has condemned nuclear tests by North Korea. During 2002, 2004 and 2010, India contributed some 3,300 tons of food grains during famines in North Korea, directly and also under the UN World Food Program. In April 2015, North Korean Foreign Minister Ri Su Yong visited India and in his meeting with EAM Sushma Swaraj requested additional humanitarian assistance but no agreement was reached because of the North Korean statement in support of Pakistan. The Indo-US joint statement issued in June 2017, had pledged to work together to counter North Korea’s weapons of mass destruction programs, including by holding accountable all parties that support these programs. However, India was part of the joint declaration of the BRICS Summit held at Xiamen in September 2017 that called for direct dialogue in the Korean Peninsula crisis.
But the stumbling block in India-North Korea relations is the latter’s nuclear and missile cooperation with Pakistan that goes back many years. In mid 1990s, intelligence reports indicated some 150 North Korean engineers engaged in making missile silos in Pakistan, including at forward air bases. In 1999, India impounded a North Korean ship off the Kandla coast carrying missile components and blueprints for Pakistan. In 2002, US reported Pakistan had exported gas centrifuges to help North Korea enrich uranium and produce a nuclear bomb. But not only did the Pakistan-North Korea relationship flourish, Pervez Musharraf managed to convince the US that this was the handiwork of AQ Khan (nuclear scientist – ‘Father of the Bomb’ in Pakistan) without the knowledge of the Pakistani Government. Whether the US deliberately looked away or was fooled, Musharraf avoided AQ Khan being interrogated by Americans; AQ Khan had purportedly proliferated nuclear technology to North Korea, Iran, and Libya.
Pakistani nuclear physicist, Pervez Hoodbhoy, interviewed by DW in September 2017, made following important points that explicitly exposed Pakistan-North Korea missile and nuclear collaboration: First, Pakistan did transfer centrifuge technology to North Korea; Second, it is possible that this nuclear proliferation started shortly after Benazir Bhutto came to power in 1989 (in the years after that it must have begun at some point) but it ended in 2003 when AQ Khan was was caught in the transfer of nuclear technology; Third, it is very hard to believe that A Q Khan single-handedly transferred all technology from Pakistan to North Korea, Libya and Iran as it was a high-security installation in Pakistan and guarded with very fearsome amount of policing and military intelligence surrounding it. Moreover, the centrifuge weighs half a ton each and it is not possible that these could have been smuggled out in a match box, so certainly there was complicity at a very high level, and; Fourth, in return for the centrifuge that Pakistan supplied to North Korea, it received so-called Dudong missiles. These are liquid-fueled missiles, which were taken over by the A Q Khan laboratory and were renamed “Ghouri” missiles. So, certainly there was a quid pro quo.
The above proves that the Pakistani government was fully involved with the nuclear-missile collaboration with North Korea. It matches with the 2011 observation by Shirley Khan, Advisor to US Congress on Asian Security Affairs, that Pakistani army had provided North Korea with nuclear materials in exchange for a $3 million bribe. In 2009, Shirley Khan had also noted: Pakistan’s nuclear proliferation to North Korea during late 1990s corresponded with increase in Chinese support to Pakistan’s nuclear program, and; by using Pakistan as a funnel for nuclear materials entering North Korea, China could strengthen the North Korea’s military capabilities without jeopardizing its intelligence sharing partnership with the US. Additionally, the book ‘The Nuclear Express: A Political History of the Bomb and its Proliferation’, by Thomas Reed, brought out that China under Deng Xiaoping, decided to proliferate nuclear technology to communists and radical Muslims in the third world based on the strategy that if the West started getting nuked by radical Muslim terrorists or another communist country without Chinese fingerprints, it would be good for China. No guesswork required that radical Muslim country was Pakistan and the communist regime North Korea.
How and to what extent de-nuclearization of the Korean Peninsula will work out is yet to be seen. However, bonds of the China-Pakistan-North Korea troika will remain strong, given their past history. India will need to bear this in mind, while expanding its bilateral relationship with North Korea; this being imperative for strengthening India’s Act East Policy.
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