Indian Defence Review

Ever since India became independent in 1947, the structure of international relations has had a profound impact on India’s security and foreign policy. The relations between three big powers, the US, Russia and China have shaped India’s foreign policy choices. In the bipolar era of international politics during the Cold War, India was close to Soviet Union than the US. China joined the Americans against Soviet Union in 1971, a year when India and Soviet Union signed a friendship treaty to ward off any threat to India’s security.

Out of the three big powers, India has fought a war with China in 1962, one of the main reasons for strategic mistrust between the two Asian giants. Relations have vastly improved with the US compared to the Cold War while Russia continues to be a strategic friend for India, although with some hiccups. The US is busy with a trade war with China while its relations with Russia have almost reached a nadir. Russia is under Western sanctions imposed after the 2014 Crimean crisis and in the following years, Moscow’s economic dependence on China has increased.

Since India-China relations have been uneasy for a number of reasons, it does not suit India that Russia comes under China’s sphere of influence. In this context, whenever there is a high level political contact between the US and Russia, foreign policy experts in India hope for a breakthrough. The US getting along with Russia could increase India’s bargaining power with its long-term adversary, China. Needless to say, both India and Russia would suffer if G-2 is a success, a proposed relationship between the US and China where the two countries would work together to prevent another Cold War.

Unpredictability has been the hallmark of US President Donald Trump’s policies but as far as his Russia policy is concerned, there is a method in his madness. Trump has been trying to reset the troubled US-Russia relationship, possibly not only to thwart further strengthening of Russia-China axis but also to seek Russia’s assistance in balancing China in the long-run.

Given the complex relationships between US, Russia and China, it could look a case of woolgathering but Trump may be trying to pull off a ‘Kissinger moment’ on Russia this time in his attempts to save American hegemony from an assertive China. The then US Secretary of State, Henry Kissinger’s secret trip to China in 1971 started an era of US-China cooperation against the former Soviet Union. US Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo’s recent Russia visit could be the beginning of just the opposite, US-Russia coming together against China.

The jury is still out on Trump’s real Russia policy as it contains both, harsh actions and the potential for cooperation with Moscow. He approved sale of lethal weapons to Ukraine against Russia backed groups, implemented tough sanctions on Russia and argued for increase in budget of European Deterrence Initiative, a defence initiative to increase American security presence in Europe to deter Russia. His detractors, however, believe that in some of these cases, it is the pressure from Trump’s advisors and Congress that did the trick against a reluctant Trump.

Critics also argue that Trump has never rebuked Russian President Vladimir Putin in public and has expressed his liking for the former KGB spy many a times. Trump congratulated Putin on his re-election in 2018. He has even hinted of his support to Russian claim over the disputed Crimean peninsula in Ukraine. Last year, Trump had also argued that the G-7 should readmit Russia as a member.  Russia was expelled from the G-8 in 2014 after annexation of Crimea. In the same year, it did not surprise many when Trump accused China of interfering in the upcoming US elections in 2020. May be, he was trying to downplay the claims about Russian interference in 2016 US elections.

The Mueller report has established Russian interference in the 2016 US presidential election but was not able to prove conspiracy between Russia and Trump’s presidential campaign associates. Although it seems now Trump is free to reset US-Russia ties, the next presidential election holds the key depending on who comes to the office. Russians believe that Trump has not been able to deliver despite his good intentions towards Moscow as he is overpowered by the Congress.

The recent remarks made by Kiron Skinner, chief of policy planning in the US State Department have added the civilizational twist to America’s relationship with Russia and China. Possibly influenced by Samuel Huntington’s Clash of Civilizations idea, Skinner said that American contestation with former Soviet Union was a fight within the Western family; since Karl Marx was a Jew whose ideas were part of Western political philosophy.

He further added that China was a different civilization with no possibility of cooperation with the US. Russians have for long believed in their European identity and it was Peter the Great who tried to cultivate European values among Russians during the early 18th century. Russia wanted to forge close relationship with the West after disintegration of Soviet Union and the roots of this policy can be traced to Mikhail Gorbachev’s concept of ‘Common European Home’.

Under its foreign policy doctrine of ‘Atlanticism’, Russia tried to promote democracy and market reforms. Russia’s accession to Council of Europe, G-8, World Trade Organisation and efforts to seek NATO membership are a proof of this trend. By pursuing its European identity, Russia wanted to achieve ‘Greater Europe’ but that never materialised, courtesy the mutual distrust between US and Russia.

Often dubbed as New Cold War or an era of Cold Peace, the US-Russia tensions have heightened after Crimean crisis in 2014. Present US grand strategy looks confused as there is lack of agreement over who is a long term American adversary – Russia or China. Continued confrontation between the West and Russia has further pushed Russia to embrace China and their combined threat would be a bigger challenge to the US.

By antagonising Russia and China at the same time, the US faces the threat of military overstretch as its forces are engaged on multi-fronts, Syria, Iran, Afghanistan, Russia, North Korea and South China Sea. Imperial overstretch is widely believed to be one of the reasons for downfall of Soviet Union and the US may take some lesson out of it. Tensions with Russia would likely divert the US attention from South China Sea towards Europe allowing China to achieve its strategic objectives in the region.

Recent history offers good lesson for the US. In last decade when the US was engaged in Afghanistan and Iraq, China made rapid economic and military strides. Giving China a further window of five to seven years could be disastrous for US strategic interests in South China Sea. Hence, the US needs to have some understanding with Putin in order to focus on its long term adversary, China.

Russians are very sensitive about their great power status and the US could reboot its Russia relations by accommodating some Russian interests. Barack Obama had poked Putin by calling Russia a regional power in 2014 and Putin intervened in Syria to show Obama that Russia is a global power with military capabilities to challenge the Americans.

Experts believe that the US could offer Russia an economic partnership to build its Pacific coast and should broker a peace deal between Japan and Russia to do away with strategic mistrust. Normalisation of relations with Japan could make Russia less suspicious of US-Japan backed initiatives like the Indo-Pacific and Quad. NATO should also stop its expansion in former Soviet republics to demonstrate to Russia that it no longer sees Moscow as a threat. These initiatives would lessen Russia’s dependence on China and bring a balance to US-Russia relations.

From Indian perspective, the present stagnation in US-Russia relations does not augur well for New Delhi’s strategic interests. It is a throwback to Cold War days where India had to make choices between either of the two countries. The growing distance between the US and Russia brings Russia closer to China and constrains India’s strategic choices. It is not in Indian security interest to see Russia depending too much on China.

India benefits if Russia and the US have a workable relationship and can cooperate to some extent in international affairs which gives India more space for strategic manoeuvre. For ex, US-Russia tensions are behind Moscow’s pro-Taliban policy in Afghanistan. In case both countries can find common grounds to work together in Afghanistan, India would have more choices in Afghanistan to attain its strategic objectives.

India would possibly not face the US threat of secondary sanctions like CAATSA, if the US-Russia reset materialises. While a dramatic shift in their relations is unlikely in the short-term, however, American cooperation would decrease Russia’s dependence on China, allowing Washington to solely focus on Beijing, its real challenger in the long-term.

At the same time, the present situation also offers India opportunity to enhance its business and trade links with Russia. India-Russia trade is mainly dominated by defence sector and both sides have shown willingness to expand the scope of the trade. Since Russian economy is under western sanctions, India can find new avenues for trade with Russia. Until the US-Russia reset materialises, India would require careful balancing between Russia and the West as both of them play an important role in its military modernization program.