New Delhi cannot afford to sit around while others plot its destruction.
Surrounded with sullied strategic environment and the spreading fire that engulfs the region, New Delhi can either continue to live in fear as it has in the past, or fight back.
There are two distinct threats that endanger the existence of the Union.
Equally true is the fact that Americans are fighting Indias war too. If they withdraw from the AF-PAK area, the entire Jihad factory will descend mercilessly upon India to create mayhem.
First are the imperial ambitions of China that threaten to ultimately dismember the Indian Union in twenty or thirty parts. To succeed in its aim, Beijing over a period of time unleashed the first phase of the strategy and intelligently encircled India.
This initial phase resulted in shrinking New Delhi’s strategic frontiers in its vicinity. Indians unwittingly made the Chinese task a cakewalk, as they were preoccupied with internal bickering for short-term personal gains, overlooking the vicious expansionist agenda designed jointly by Beijing and Islamabad to tear apart the Union.
Even as it pretended to withdraw its covert support to the rebels in India’s northeast in late seventies, China took advantage of Islamabad’s hatred for India, and deftly invested in Pakistan to carry out the task on its behalf.
The primary segment of the Chinese strategy moved with clockwork precision by investing in autocratic and Islamic fundamentalist elements in countries on India’s periphery, i.e., Myanmar, Bangladesh and Maoists in Nepal. In Sri Lanka, while Indians dithered, Beijing and its proxy Pakistan quickly moved in to help arm Colombo against the LTTE, develop the Hambantota port, etc. While the adversary invested in encircling India on its land and sea frontiers, Indians merrily continued to indulge in their favorite past time, i.e. meaningless and endless debates.
Invited by Islamabad, the Chinese moved into Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (PoK). With growing irrelevance of Pakistan as a nation-state, this area in times to come will become Chinese Occupied Kashmir (CoK). Similarly, China fabricated its territorial claim on Bhutan and is working to eclipse the prevailing Indian influence there.
Is New Delhi prepared to defend its strategic frontiers in Bhutan unlike our timid response in Tibet?
The second phase of the long-term strategy to unravel India based on smaller geographical regions is now underway. After successfully encircling India, the recent spurts in Chinese incursions on the border, objections to the PM’s visit to Arunachal, lobbying against India in ADB, the drama of apportioning official annual budgets for the development of the so-called Southern Tibet (Arunachal), devising opinion polls against India, issuing visas on separate sheets to residents of India from Kashmir, etc., are clear pointers in that direction.
The concluding part of the plot of unraveling the Union, if successful, will remove the challenge to the unquestioned supremacy of China in Asia.
China’s initial thrust succeeded not only in effectively rolling back India’s influence in its external periphery but also helped its proxies to extend their tentacles deep into India, threatening the Union’s internal stability.
Kashmir legally acceded to the Indian Union, therefore there is no dispute. However, Tibet and Sinkiang (East Turkistan) were forcibly annexed by China. These indeed are matters of dispute. New Delhi should learn to think differently!
Therefore, the second distinct aspect that endangers the existence of the Union is the rapidly increasing internal security threat.
While the external adversary devised strategy to shrink India’s influence in its ‘near abroad’, the individual States’ inability to govern ensured rollback of authority towards their respective capitals. Indian sway unwittingly stands reduced simultaneously, within its borders and in its immediate vicinity. Combined intensity of the external and the internal threat, where each feeds on the other, if not handled with ruthlessness, will unravel India in times to come.
Negligence in governance is primarily responsible and permits the hostile external actors to take advantage of the internal dissent to further their imperial ambitions.
To power itself out of the largely self-inflicted external-internal encirclement New Delhi should work out a comprehensive counter-strategy with an offensive orientation. For an enduring win against the heavy odds, the national goal should be to emerge as the single most dominant power in Asia by 2020.