Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to the five Central Asian states from July 6- 8, and again from July 10-13, 2015 is extremely significant, timely and symbolic. It has the potential of transforming and catapulting relations between India and the Central Asian countries to new, uncharted heights.
It is disappointing that relations between India and the five Central Asian republics have been stagnating at a level much below potential because of neglect and attention deficit from both sides.
Prime Minister Modi’s decision to visit this important region soon after completion of his first year in office sends a powerful signal to the region and the world that India is keen to significantly strengthen its ties with these nations.
It is disappointing that relations between India and the five Central Asian republics comprising of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan have been stagnating at a level much below potential because of neglect and attention deficit from both sides. By taking this unilateral initiative, Prime Minister Modi has given an unequivocal message about the relevance and significance that India attaches to this region in its foreign policy matrix.
Prime Minister Modi’s initiative is reminiscent of former prime minister Jawaharlal Nehru’s visit to three of these republics when they were still a part of the Soviet Union, exactly 60 years ago in June 1955. After independence of these countries in 1991, then prime minister P.V. Narasimha Rao seized the opportunity and notwithstanding the domestic difficulties that India was experiencing on account of the economic crisis, demolition of Babri Masjid, Mandal Commission protests etc., visited four out of the five countries. Unfortunately over the last 10 years, former prime minister Manmohan Singh paid a visit to only two countries in the region viz Uzbekistan in 2006 and Kazakhstan in 2011.
Importance of these countries in regional and international affairs has increased several folds over the last decade.
The impending drawdown of US and North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) forces from Afghanistan significantly enhances the imperative of strengthening India’s relations with these countries. There are other common challenges, including the recent civil war and air strikes by Saudi Arabia in Yemen; rise of ISIS which has taken over vast swathes of land in Iraq and Syria; resurgent Islamic insurgency in Egypt; renewed civil war in Libya; ongoing negotiations between Iran and the P5+1 countries on the former’s nuclear programme etc.
Energy is a significant pillar for expanding our bilateral economic engagement with this region.
Central Asia has also been afflicted by the flight of several young men and women to join the Islamic State or ISIS. The recent killings in France, Kuwait and Tunisia are harsh reminders of the growing impact of ISIS ideology on young impressionable minds to lead them towards terrorism and violence. Stability and security in Afghanistan and Central Asia is of paramount importance for peace in India. India’s experience and success in promoting a syncretic and pluralistic culture among its diverse population can be of great value to Central Asia.
It is essential for India and Central Asia to chart out common strategies to confront and overcome these looming risks. Our security and strategic affairs policy makers need to share information and intelligence on these growing threats to jointly confront them. Regular and frequent meetings between National Security Advisers of all countries need to be instituted on a priority basis.
Energy is a significant pillar for expanding our bilateral economic engagement with this region. Opportunities abound for Indian companies in exploration and production of oil, gas and uranium in Kazakhstan; of gas in Turkmenistan; of uranium in Uzbekistan, and for hydro-power in Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan. Our public sector company ONGC Videsh has committed to investing $400 million in exploration in Satpayev Block in Kazakhstan in which it holds 25% share. The TAPI pipeline to supply gas from Turkmenistan to India via Afghanistan and Pakistan has been under discussion for the last several years. It is imperative that all hurdles are cleared so that construction of the pipeline starts quickly.
China’s growing presence in this region in areas of energy, security, trade, infrastructure and connectivity is a matter of growing concern.
India has been importing uranium from Kazakhstan over the last few years. Prime Minister Modi’s visit could result in enhanced partnership in exploration and mining of uranium in Kazakhstan. Renewable energy sector is also a promising area as India embarks on its ambitious solar and wind energy programmes. Theme of EXPO 2017, which will be held in Kazakhstan two years hence, is green and clean energy. There are rich possibilities for cooperating in this field.
Greater cooperation is possible in the field of trade and economic partnership also. Currently India has bilateral trade of about US$1.4 billion with Kazakhstan, about $270 million with Uzbekistan and below $100 million with each of the other three countries. Lack of direct land connectivity between India and the region is a huge bottleneck in expanding ties. Decision by India to invest around $100 million in the Chahbahar port project in Iran can help it to reach this region via Afghanistan. The International North South Transport Corridor can also provide an easier and quicker access to this region.
China’s growing presence in this region in areas of energy, security, trade, infrastructure and connectivity is a matter of growing concern. Prime Minister Modi’s visit is likely to ensure that India also capitalises on its cultural, historical and civilisational links with these countries to reassert its presence in the region. Tourism, education, health, IT, agriculture, pharmaceuticals etc are areas that enjoy rich potential for strengthening relations with this region.
It can be expected that some ambitious and far-reaching initiatives in the area of energy, security cooperation and trade and economic collaboration will be announced during the visit. The journey is likely to herald a sharp upswing in relations with this region.
Courtesy: http://southasiamonitor.org/detail.php?type=sl&nid=12518
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TAPI is a non-starter and dead-on-arrival, let’s keep it that way. We don’t want to be held hostage to whims & fancies of Pakistan as far as energy requirements are concerned.