In 1962 China had captured Tawang and yet it withdrew from it and the rest of Arunachal Pradesh largely to what is the MacMahon line, thereby de facto accepting its validity. In the western sector, it did not go back to the pre-1962 line and retained the fruits of its aggression. If they needed to hold Tawang for religious or security reasons, or felt that their legal claim was rock solid, they would not have withdrawn. 45 years later, to demand Tawang is sheer political effrontery. It is understood that the Special Representatives have set up a Joint Working Group and two drafts of a Framework Agreement are under discussion, and that once a joint document is finalized, the next step of demarcation can begin.
China could easily make “concessions” in the western sector as they are occupying territory much beyond their own historical claims. For India making “equal” concessions in the eastern sector would be impossible for political and security reasons. India cannot but seek to move back China in Aksai Chin in view of their very advanced positions, which gives the Chinese a handle to raise the ante in the east.
The Chinese are tough, unyielding negotiators and have no public pressure on them to show results. If we have 21 objections to their draft, they would have to be convinced to give up their position on 21 points. The question is what they will demand in return. Negotiations with them will be a long haul and an early border settlement can be ruled out. With Russia and its Central Asian neighbours , as well as with Burma, China has reached border settlements without any significant territorial give and take, despite initial Chinese demands. The lesson for us is that we have to be resilient and firm.
It is correct on India’s part to allow the process of normalisation of relations with China to proceed despite the border problem. Whatever the differences, the leadership of the two countries must maintain a constant dialogue and find common ground as much as possible. China’s inexorable rise makes it a formidable and indispensable interlocutor. Better India- China relations also serve our diplomatic needs well in South-east Asia and beyond. The South-east Asian countries, despite their apprehensions about China’s phenomenal rise and their interest in India playing a larger role in the region, would find any deterioration of Sino-Indian relations disconcerting as it would impact negatively on the regional political atmosphere and the economic synergies being built up from which all, including India, are benefitting.
The phenomenal growth of India-China trade(almost $40 billion) is a welcome development as it contributes to increasing mutual prosperity. It is important to note that on the Indian side, the decision to boost economic exchanges is a political one based on the logic that the border issue should not stand in the way of normalisation of relations in other fields. Its political character is underlined by the completely opposite attitude of Pakistan, i.e., no normalisation of relations with India, including in trade, unless the core issue of Kashmir is settled. For the Chinese the decision is not political. China controls what it wants on the border and claims more as a pressure point.
China has strategically neutralized India by supplying Pakistan with nuclear and missile technologies. It is the biggest defence supplier of Pakistan. While it is extremely sensitive on the issue of “one China”, on which it has extracted support from us, its position on Jammu and Kashmir, veering from support of Pakistan’s position to a quasi-neutral position, and notable for the absence of any endorsement of our legal position, stands out as a contrast. Its claim on vast swathes of Indian territory, in any case, makes mockery of “one India”.
Also read: The Danger signals from Pakistan
The structure of the Chinese economy, its export dependance, the economies of scale that operate, its capacity to dump surpluses, its opaque system of pricing, heavy government subsidies, including through non-performing assets of banks, and huge foreign investment that has made China a global manufacturing base, draws China to the large Indian market. The expansion of India-China trade is a consequence of China’s huge growth rates and hunger for raw materials, as well as its massive export capacities for which markets have to be found. Early indications were that India could stand up to Chinese competition and the balance of trade was initially in India’s favour. In 2006-7 our trade deficit with China amounted to $9 billion; in 2007-8 it is likely to go up to $14 billion. Concerns are now growing in India about China’s unfair trade practices.
With Russia and its Central Asian neighbours , as well as with Burma, China has reached border settlements without any significant territorial give and take, despite initial Chinese demands. The lesson for us is that we have to be resilient and firm.
The basket of Indian exports is also strikingly limited, with iron ore forming the bulk. China is exporting manufactured goods to us. Even Russia is smarting at the situation that a manufacturing, technologically advanced country like it, is now exporting raw materials to feed China’s industry and importing manufactured goods in return! A new point of concern is the systematic effort by China to capture a commanding share of the Indian market in some sectors, creating problems of over-dependance on Chinese supplies. China’s push for an FTA with India is raising concern in our business circles. Indian companies have also begun to complain about difficulties in investing in China. India has concerns about Chinese investments in certain sectors and locations because the ownership of Chinese corporations is not transparent, with suspicions that the Chinese armed forces control them.
China’s intelligence activity is massive and intrusive, and it is worth recalling German Chancellor Merkel’s public expression of concern about China’s effort to undermine Germany’s cyber security. It is prudent for India to be cautious about China’s penetration in sensitive areas and internal criticism of this in some quarters is misplaced.
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