Indian Defence Review

b) As against this, one could say, for reasons not known, there has been scant regard/ attention by the NDMA to conduct a review/audit of National Preparedness in the event of such a pandemic, despite the same being included in the NDMP-19 and sufficient warnings across the globe from various quarters. This begs the question; is there a need to review the structure of the NDMA/ MHA?

c) Indicators of a Pandemic: COVID-19

• President George W Bush first underlined the need to prepare for a Pandemic such as this, he went so far as to suggest that the world would never know when and in what manner it would emerge & that we need to be prepared for it.
• Bill Gates is on record to have indicated similar thoughts through Ted Talks dating 2014 to 2015 and then again impressed upon President Bush to focus on this aspect by pumping in more funds on research and preparedness for such an eventuality.
• Warnings received via WHO too were ignored for favour of politics or business reasons much to our disadvantage.

First cases of COVID-19 came up in Wuhan in or around December 2019. Our lock down was announced in the third week of March 2020, necessitated by the fact that we required “Time” to gear up our Health Services to meet this threat. The manner in which this was announced left vast numbers of people stranded, the back bone of industry and farming, with nowhere to go and no roof over their heads, this turned into a nightmare not just for the Government/ Administration and Industry but for humanity and the image of India too!

The Challenges Posed

Simply put, one can consider the following:-

a) The sudden declaration of a Lock Down left the entire country in a state of Panic.

b) The fragility of our Social System, Industrial response for the welfare of employees, self centred individuals with not a care for the underprivileged left hundreds and thousands out in the open, subjected to police atrocities, on the one hand and the uncertainty of life itself on the other.

c) Lack of education of our masses, the scant regard shown, to adhere to guidelines issued from time to time by all concerned, including the educated, illiterate, political and religious leadership. Industry across the board was caught flat footed too. A simple thing like “Social/Physical Distancing” was not followed.

d) Short of PPE and support systems in the field of Health, a Lock Down was required to buy time and build capacity. The industry and health system responded to the crisis as best as they could.

e) With offices, shops, industry closed, households isolated, sources of income came to a sudden closure, crops lay in open fields ready to be harvested, vulnerable to weather, but there was no labour. Panic! Once again the Government responded well to bring things under control, harvesting commenced.

f) The sudden realisation that in our planning, industry had not catered for housing for employees, so much so that even residential areas lacked accommodation for domestic help, many were migrants with no ration cards were left high and dry. The recent package announced by the Government addresses this, although too little too late, it may just help in creating demand/employment.

g) The response from Industry on the strategy for re opening is awaited ,how to work with Physical distancing, Reduced work force, in situ Housing, Disinfecting, Virus screening and the Protection of Supply Chain are challenges that need a quick solution.

The humongous images of migrants on their journey back home, many with no food or money, raises the question; to what use is the vast data of Aadhar Cards, Aadhar linked bank accounts and so forth if this cannot be used by the local Administration in such situations?

Being from the Army, it is but obvious that one would fall back to experiences while in service!

What comes to mind is the numerous occasions one got Guidelines in the form of “Do’s and Don’ts” with every change of weather/ season, climate, altitude and so forth. The good old “Warning Order” or WO as it was referred to invariably set the ball rolling when we had to rehearse Mobilisation.

The first to respond to the COVID challenge were the Armed Forces when evacuation of our stranded citizens was carried out, simultaneously establishing the first Quarantine Centres with quiet efficiency as they went into a “Force Preservation” mode.

The relevance of a Warning Order in times of a crisis is most relevant. It may be applied in today’s COVID-19 situation to good avail as follows:-

a) A pre lock down announcement informing the environment of what was in the offing.

b) Instead of a ‘No Move Before’, announcing a ‘No Move After’ thus giving farm hands, industrial labour & Industry, domestic help and in fact every individual likely to be affected to either leave or make arrangements to stay on.

c) Transport including railways, would during this period be utilised, for transporting those stranded to move back to their place of residence and for supply chains of essentials.

d) The “Warning Period” would also serve as time for foreigners and Indians stranded to be flown out or in as the case may be.

e) Resident Welfare Associations (RWA) and Volunteers could have been organised in this interim period to work in support of local administration.

f) Civil Defence would have had time to be mobilised.

g) Health system would have gainfully utilised this time to gear up in preparation to meet this challenge.

h) The initial response at early stages when the infection had yet to spread (early infected cases amounted to a rough figure of 300) would have had many benefits including and not the least being that of avoiding the chaos we now witness in movement of labour/ stranded persons, industry and farm sector just might have been able to retain their workers albeit under ad hoc arrangements .

i) Indian Pharma Industry has a 40% stake in the US market, this gives us an edge in making a world statement in the fight against corona. While the US battles patent laws favouring M-3 monopoly over production of N95 masks on their own soil.

j) The element of “Jugaad” combined with a robust level of resistance are imponderables which are likely to work in our favour.

In times of emergencies our responses are based on three things “Something we have done before; something we been taught and lastly something we have seen being done”. Emergencies leave no time to “Start Thinking of What to Do”. Therefore the need for rehearsing and refining such responses through periodic audits, timed with the changes in season are relevant.

In Conclusion: The Silver Lining.

Gérard Araud, formerly France’s ambassador to the United States, said that when a crisis occurs, one should ask whether it breaks a trend or confirms it. “There is,” he said, “an assault on globalization” from multiple sources—the financial crisis, U.S.-China competition, climate-change activists pushing for people to buy local. COVID-19 piles on the pressure. Countries will be wary of outsourcing crucial medical supplies and pharmaceuticals to other countries. Supply chains more generally will be disrupted and will be hard to repair. Governments will play a much larger role in the economy and will use that role to rebuild a national economy instead of a global one—their priority will be domestic industry. ( Thomas Wright Senior fellow at the Brookings Institution Atlantic) .

We are miles from realising the full impact of this Pandemic and the Government, Industry as well as Citizens are slowly beginning to understand the inevitable horrors of its impact.

The chaos and turbulence created by the Corona Virus is not going away in a hurry. The Government must enforce the protocols desired for such pandemics while at the same time educate the environment.

Farming, factories, production units would invariably require to adapt to more mechanisation/automation, a culture of work from home and also create housing/hostels for the work force to live in on site/campus.

Residential complexes too would do well to include accommodation for domestic help and conservancy staff while avoiding the operation of businesses and offices from homes, especially where the house is jointly owned and includes elderly persons.

One can only visualise a slow recovery and well thought out steps to open up in a tightly controlled manner. In military parlance it would amount to fighting a battle in the deserts “Isolating, containing and reducing Strong Points and Nodal Points” which become Islands of resistance akin to the Red, Orange and Green Zones.

Long reaching impact of this pandemic requires a review of our social norms, attention to health and hygiene both at home and places of work.

Whether the Government, will bring in policy changes, to capitalise on this opportunity and successfully rebuild “National Economy” only time will tell. It needs to be said however, that never before has a Government or a Nation stood at such a challenge and opportunity.

Regardless of observations to the contrary, a good beginning has been made by the “Lock Down” which has given us time to gear up the Health services. At the economic front, various stimuli announced have yet to find implementation, a policy to encourage indigenous industry and goods has been announced as part of the Strategy of Self Sufficiency “Atmanirbhar Bharat Abhiyan”. More is awaited. A serious effort to boycott Chinese goods must be pursued ruthlessly.

In our efforts to revive the economy we must not lose focus on the need for Military preparedness.

A do or die situation not merely for India but also for the Party in Power.