Indian Defence Review

The Cosmic Enigma: “Who can think of the sun costuming clouds? When all people are shaken or of night endazzled, proud, when people awaken and cry and cry for help? The craven antiquity of self, everyone grows suddenly cold. The tea is bad, the bread sad. How can the world so old be so mad? That people die? If joy shall be without a book, it lies, themselves within themselves , if they will look within themselves, and cry and cry for help! Within as pillars of the sun, supports of the night. The tea, the wine is good. The bread, the meat is sweet and they will not die” — Collected Poems of Wallace Stevens.

Hope springs from the possibility that human kind may be able so to order it’s affairs as to make power and knowledge the means of life rather than instruments of doom! Mankind has so far been incapable of achieving the brotherhood of man under the fatherhood of God, rejecting the ancient vision of One World by adopting ancestral feuds of violence by clan against clan, tribe against tribe, kingdom against kingdom and empire against empire!

From where terrorism emerged, with what intent, how it has engulfed the world and why it has not been defeated as yet, is as difficult to answer as the origin and purpose of the virus which has taken the world by storm and laid bare the human vulnerability to a tiny microbe. While the world has been engulfed as a whole by the virus, terrorism and national aspirations, the desire for riches has split the globe creating a fragmented and often conflicting attitude resulting in “Empire against Empire” in conflict.

Closer home, we are confronted with major issues concerning the future well being of our Country, men and the Nation as a whole; from COVID-19, economy, migrants, terrorism and hostile neighbours.

It is my humble attempt to touch upon various disturbing issues, purely aimed at generating a thought process for future planning and responses, as briefly as I can.

India, Our Neighbours and Emerging Scenario

The paradox, which lies at the heart of this dilemma, can be found in the concept of International Relations which few can describe and fewer can resolve. One may suggest that “Man is a beast who aspires to be God even when Devils within his mind struggle for mastery of his very soul!

Giving in to his animal needs forgetting that his destiny lies from “womb to tomb and lust to dust” he fights to control his destiny between a cradle he did not choose and a grave he cannot escape.

History, they say the victors write history while the vanquished read the “Lessons learnt”. Yet history is a tough teacher, it “repeats itself”, for those who fail to learn, over and over again either to their doom or till they learn lessons.

Having lived through “emergencies” in different forms we ought to have understood that they erupt mostly when least expected. Time and place as well as manner of emergence is of their choice. Further, they have a tendency of disappearing for years, complacency sets in. Preparations take a back seat, funding dries up because other areas are considered more “Pressing / important”.

What could be more important to a Nation than “National Security” which translates not merely to the “security of borders”, it requires the “safety and well being of its citizens” which in turn is inclusive of all other factors like health, industry, food, protection against natural /manmade calamities, internal/external aggression as well as the security of National Interests which may lie out of our geographic area.

In the Indian context “Policy” can be seen to change every five years with the change of Government/Party. Our two neighbours appear to have a more “consistent agenda if not policy” and this seems to stem from the age old concept of International Relations. With Pakistan, a “Proxy” of China, it is a single minded fixation on “Kashmir”. With China, the single minded focus of being a global power dominates its National Interest with a secondary objective of preventing India from becoming a regional/global power. The second possibly stems from the fact that we have conflicting interests in the region, posing a challenge to the Chinese, as opposed to the dynamics of relations between both China and Pakistan, their national goals appear to merge as one when it comes to India.

With seventy years of confrontation with India, Pakistan has translated the concept of “Low Cost Option” as a policy in the wake of economic fragility on the one hand and the use of its nuclear bluff to negate an all out war on the other , both being expediently exploited successfully.

The Chinese rely on their being a far stronger economy, military power, geographically vast. The psychology of ’62 continues to give them a sense of confidence, while they deliberately obliterate the drumming they go in ‘67. They continue to exploit our weakness to keep us imbalanced and fretting by doing what hurts most. Domination and violation of the border while using “The Treaty of Peace and Tranquillity” as a facade, laying claim to large tracts of Indian Territory , of constructing Dams in our territory, the “Diamar-Basha Dan” for which a contract has been signed with Pakistan is a recent example (though the latest inputs indicate that this deal has been scrapped). Each action is aimed at “psychological ascendency” , be it Doklam, North Sikkim, East Ladakh, or the construction of dams they openly provoke India time after time.

China effectively blocked our efforts for a Permanent Seat in the UN, raised the Kashmir issue amongst others. The CPEC project and her inroads to Nepal, Bhutan, Bangladesh, Burma as well as Sri Lanka , Maldives and domination of the South China Sea along with its latest Defence Equipment (stealth bomber and an air transportable armoured vehicle) reflect a well crafted strategy. Quick to emerge a world leader in communications and Cyber warfare, allegations of stealing data of Corona Virus research are afloat in public domain; her foot print can be seen all over.

It is in our interest to explore the chinks in the Chinese armour as leverage against the arm twisting we are being subjected to. Having lost the plot in Tibet, the issue of Taiwan’s ability to contain the pandemic and their admission to the WHO is an opportunity amongst other to counter their moves.

The aftermath of COVID-19 on China has yet to unfold. Reports indicate that 85% of production facilities are up and running, at what capacity and for what market is yet to be known, however, it does appear that China is over the hill as far as the first wave of COVID goes. Much remains concealed behind the Bamboo Curtain.

The Global conscientious to boycott China is gaining momentum, although its full impact will only be known with passage of time. Given the nature of interdependence, one may expect even USA to review the present “Anti – China” stand once the impending elections in the US are over. The desire for “cheap products” may just continue to be the driver of her economy!

Amidst the consistently hostile attitude, one can have no doubts that both our neighbours will persist in hurting India’s interests and at this given moment exploit our economic as well as military weakness as perceived by them.

The Indian leadership has made oft repeated comments on POK (including Gilgit, Baltistan) being part of India, military leadership including a retired CAOS has in clear terms stated that “Plans are in Place” for taking back POK. The time does not appear right for such a move; the cry to be free of oppression from Pakistan needs to reverberate from within these areas before anything else.

When the US troops are on the verge of withdrawing from Afghanistan, the Taliban are flexing their muscle and Pakistan gearing up for a resurgent influx of terrorists, it is not a time for tampering with our Military preparedness, nor for experimentation in the Organisational Structure but certainly warrants utmost alertness, stability and a high moral. I am reminded of what we were taught in service, “Infiltrate during bad weather, attack when his guard is down, defences are weak or moral is low”.

The Indian Subcontinent is set to see a heating up of terrorism and military action in the foreseeable future, the hot bed being J&K, the LOC, disputed territories, Islands and South China Sea.

Battles are won by “minds” of higher Commanders and the “Grit” of ground soldiers. Let our Generals ensure “a high state or readiness and a high morale”. Rebuild the image and pride of the Armed Forces.

The War against COVID-19

 As though India and the world in fact did not have enough troubles, out of nowhere came a microbe of a virus and the world got to learn of an unknown Chinese town named “Wuhan”. The “Centre Stage” of our troubles at the moment.

Factors to consider:-

a) The NDMA 2019 opens with the respected Prime Minister’s Statement given below:

 “Taking forward the country’s agenda for achievement of targets set under Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction – SFDRR (2015 -2030). The Plan has also focused on achieving a coherence with other international agreements such as Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and Paris Agreement on Climate Change (COP 21). The period of these agreements coincide with SFDRR. This coherence will result in ensuring sustainable and climate resilient development that will

ultimately reduce disaster risk.  It is imperative to mainstream disaster risk reduction in developmental planning and to adopt an inclusive approach towards risk reduction to ensure sustainability of developmental initiatives and to widen its reach to cover every citizen.

The success of a Plan depends on its successful implementation. It is the responsibility of all stakeholders, both government and non-government, to execute this plan wisely and carry out responsibilities assigned to them in a time-bound manner. This will also help in achieving the objectives of the National Plan”-Prime Minister Sri Narendra Modi (NDMA 2019).

b) As against this, one could say, for reasons not known, there has been scant regard/ attention by the NDMA to conduct a review/audit of National Preparedness in the event of such a pandemic, despite the same being included in the NDMP-19 and sufficient warnings across the globe from various quarters. This begs the question; is there a need to review the structure of the NDMA/ MHA?

c) Indicators of a Pandemic: COVID-19

• President George W Bush first underlined the need to prepare for a Pandemic such as this, he went so far as to suggest that the world would never know when and in what manner it would emerge & that we need to be prepared for it.
• Bill Gates is on record to have indicated similar thoughts through Ted Talks dating 2014 to 2015 and then again impressed upon President Bush to focus on this aspect by pumping in more funds on research and preparedness for such an eventuality.
• Warnings received via WHO too were ignored for favour of politics or business reasons much to our disadvantage.

First cases of COVID-19 came up in Wuhan in or around December 2019. Our lock down was announced in the third week of March 2020, necessitated by the fact that we required “Time” to gear up our Health Services to meet this threat. The manner in which this was announced left vast numbers of people stranded, the back bone of industry and farming, with nowhere to go and no roof over their heads, this turned into a nightmare not just for the Government/ Administration and Industry but for humanity and the image of India too!

The Challenges Posed

Simply put, one can consider the following:-

a) The sudden declaration of a Lock Down left the entire country in a state of Panic.

b) The fragility of our Social System, Industrial response for the welfare of employees, self centred individuals with not a care for the underprivileged left hundreds and thousands out in the open, subjected to police atrocities, on the one hand and the uncertainty of life itself on the other.

c) Lack of education of our masses, the scant regard shown, to adhere to guidelines issued from time to time by all concerned, including the educated, illiterate, political and religious leadership. Industry across the board was caught flat footed too. A simple thing like “Social/Physical Distancing” was not followed.

d) Short of PPE and support systems in the field of Health, a Lock Down was required to buy time and build capacity. The industry and health system responded to the crisis as best as they could.

e) With offices, shops, industry closed, households isolated, sources of income came to a sudden closure, crops lay in open fields ready to be harvested, vulnerable to weather, but there was no labour. Panic! Once again the Government responded well to bring things under control, harvesting commenced.

f) The sudden realisation that in our planning, industry had not catered for housing for employees, so much so that even residential areas lacked accommodation for domestic help, many were migrants with no ration cards were left high and dry. The recent package announced by the Government addresses this, although too little too late, it may just help in creating demand/employment.

g) The response from Industry on the strategy for re opening is awaited ,how to work with Physical distancing, Reduced work force, in situ Housing, Disinfecting, Virus screening and the Protection of Supply Chain are challenges that need a quick solution.

The humongous images of migrants on their journey back home, many with no food or money, raises the question; to what use is the vast data of Aadhar Cards, Aadhar linked bank accounts and so forth if this cannot be used by the local Administration in such situations?

Being from the Army, it is but obvious that one would fall back to experiences while in service!

What comes to mind is the numerous occasions one got Guidelines in the form of “Do’s and Don’ts” with every change of weather/ season, climate, altitude and so forth. The good old “Warning Order” or WO as it was referred to invariably set the ball rolling when we had to rehearse Mobilisation.

The first to respond to the COVID challenge were the Armed Forces when evacuation of our stranded citizens was carried out, simultaneously establishing the first Quarantine Centres with quiet efficiency as they went into a “Force Preservation” mode.

The relevance of a Warning Order in times of a crisis is most relevant. It may be applied in today’s COVID-19 situation to good avail as follows:-

a) A pre lock down announcement informing the environment of what was in the offing.

b) Instead of a ‘No Move Before’, announcing a ‘No Move After’ thus giving farm hands, industrial labour & Industry, domestic help and in fact every individual likely to be affected to either leave or make arrangements to stay on.

c) Transport including railways, would during this period be utilised, for transporting those stranded to move back to their place of residence and for supply chains of essentials.

d) The “Warning Period” would also serve as time for foreigners and Indians stranded to be flown out or in as the case may be.

e) Resident Welfare Associations (RWA) and Volunteers could have been organised in this interim period to work in support of local administration.

f) Civil Defence would have had time to be mobilised.

g) Health system would have gainfully utilised this time to gear up in preparation to meet this challenge.

h) The initial response at early stages when the infection had yet to spread (early infected cases amounted to a rough figure of 300) would have had many benefits including and not the least being that of avoiding the chaos we now witness in movement of labour/ stranded persons, industry and farm sector just might have been able to retain their workers albeit under ad hoc arrangements .

i) Indian Pharma Industry has a 40% stake in the US market, this gives us an edge in making a world statement in the fight against corona. While the US battles patent laws favouring M-3 monopoly over production of N95 masks on their own soil.

j) The element of “Jugaad” combined with a robust level of resistance are imponderables which are likely to work in our favour.

In times of emergencies our responses are based on three things “Something we have done before; something we been taught and lastly something we have seen being done”. Emergencies leave no time to “Start Thinking of What to Do”. Therefore the need for rehearsing and refining such responses through periodic audits, timed with the changes in season are relevant.

In Conclusion: The Silver Lining.

Gérard Araud, formerly France’s ambassador to the United States, said that when a crisis occurs, one should ask whether it breaks a trend or confirms it. “There is,” he said, “an assault on globalization” from multiple sources—the financial crisis, U.S.-China competition, climate-change activists pushing for people to buy local. COVID-19 piles on the pressure. Countries will be wary of outsourcing crucial medical supplies and pharmaceuticals to other countries. Supply chains more generally will be disrupted and will be hard to repair. Governments will play a much larger role in the economy and will use that role to rebuild a national economy instead of a global one—their priority will be domestic industry. ( Thomas Wright Senior fellow at the Brookings Institution Atlantic) .

We are miles from realising the full impact of this Pandemic and the Government, Industry as well as Citizens are slowly beginning to understand the inevitable horrors of its impact.

The chaos and turbulence created by the Corona Virus is not going away in a hurry. The Government must enforce the protocols desired for such pandemics while at the same time educate the environment.

Farming, factories, production units would invariably require to adapt to more mechanisation/automation, a culture of work from home and also create housing/hostels for the work force to live in on site/campus.

Residential complexes too would do well to include accommodation for domestic help and conservancy staff while avoiding the operation of businesses and offices from homes, especially where the house is jointly owned and includes elderly persons.

One can only visualise a slow recovery and well thought out steps to open up in a tightly controlled manner. In military parlance it would amount to fighting a battle in the deserts “Isolating, containing and reducing Strong Points and Nodal Points” which become Islands of resistance akin to the Red, Orange and Green Zones.

Long reaching impact of this pandemic requires a review of our social norms, attention to health and hygiene both at home and places of work.

Whether the Government, will bring in policy changes, to capitalise on this opportunity and successfully rebuild “National Economy” only time will tell. It needs to be said however, that never before has a Government or a Nation stood at such a challenge and opportunity.

Regardless of observations to the contrary, a good beginning has been made by the “Lock Down” which has given us time to gear up the Health services. At the economic front, various stimuli announced have yet to find implementation, a policy to encourage indigenous industry and goods has been announced as part of the Strategy of Self Sufficiency “Atmanirbhar Bharat Abhiyan”. More is awaited. A serious effort to boycott Chinese goods must be pursued ruthlessly.

In our efforts to revive the economy we must not lose focus on the need for Military preparedness.

A do or die situation not merely for India but also for the Party in Power.