Indian Defence Review

On May 17, the US, UK and Canada imposed new sanctions on Myanmar’s military. US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken tweeted: “The US is designating Burma’s State Administrative Council and 16 individuals connected to the military regime. We take this action alongside the UK and Canada, who are imposing costs on the regime. Thank you to my counterparts, @DominicaRaab @MarcGarneau, for your efforts.” This was the second set of sanctions on Myanmar imposed by these countries.

Blinken said the junta had made no attempt to restore Myanmar’s path to democracy. Myanmar’s military junta has said elections will be held within two years and power will be handed over to the winner. But simultaneously, the present Election Commission is taking action to dissolve Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy (NLD) accusing it for election fraud in November 2019.

Suu Kyi herself faces multiple charges including breaking the country’s secrecy law, which would mean imprisonment for up to 14 years if convicted.  With this, the 75-year old Suu Kyi’s political career appears over unless she gets a pardon. Also, the NLD will not be contesting next elections unless resurrected as another party.

Analysts have been discussing whether Myanmar is already amidst a civil war or is heading towards one. This is because of the number of people who have been killed and imprisoned. Airstrikes have been conducted in Kachin and Karen states and Bago Region due to which some 30,000 locals were forced to flee their homes. The Karen National Liberation Army (KNLA) has stepped up attacks against the military. KNLA also claimed they shot down a military helicopter on May 3.

The UN has raised US$340 million to assist Rohingya refugees in Bangladesh through international donors. According Filippo Grandi, UN High Commissioner for Refugees, the Joint Response Program (JRP) 2021 in support of Bangladesh is seeking US$943 million to meet the needs of more than 880,000 Rohingya refugees and 472,000 Bangladeshis in the surrounding host communities. But while the UN is looking at Rohingyas and Bangladeshis, the fresh violence in Myanmar this year has sent thousands fleeing into neighbouring countries. The number of Myanmar citizens seeking refuge in India has already crossed 15,000 as per official figures. This figure is expected to keep rising till violence continues in Myanmar.

A Gallup poll conducted in Myanmar during 2012 showed that 30 percent approved of US leadership, 67 percent were uncertain and 3 percent disapproved. But that was more than eight years ago and opinions may have changed with China’s psychological warfare and economic and military aid to Myanmar, especially since 2015 when China increased the scope of its engagement with Myanmar considerably including through its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). In July 2019, UN ambassadors from 50 countries, including Myanmar, signed a joint letter to the UNHCR defending China’s treatment of Uyghurs in Xinjiang.

Hillary Clinton, then US Secretary of State had visited Myanmar in 2011. Chinese President Xi Jinping visited Myanmar in January 2020 giving fresh impetus to the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC). Russia’s Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu visited Myanmar in January 2021 and held bilateral talks with Min Aung Hlaing, Commander-in-Chief of the Myanmar Armed Forces. This was followed by a visit of the Russian Deputy Defence Minister Alexander Fomin; visiting Myanmar in March 2021 to hold discussions with Min Aung Hlaing, making it the first high-profile foreign visit to Myanmar after the military takeover.

The CIA has been active in Myanmar past several years though nowhere close to when it created a 3000-man force ‘Counterterrorism Pursuit Teams’to undertake covert operations in Pakistan, as described in the book ‘Obama’s Wars’ by Bob Woodward. On September 10, 2007, the Myanmar Government accused the CIA of assassinating a rebel Karen commander from the Karen National Union (KNU) who wanted to negotiate with the then military government. Also according to WikiLeaks, the US had funded some of the civil society groups in Myanmar that forced the Thien Sien government to suspend China’s Myitsone Dam on the Irrawaddy River in September 2011.

During March 2021, some 32 Chinese-invested factories were attacked and vandalized in Yangon. According to the Chinese Embassy in Yangon, theproperty losses totaled up to about Yuan 240 million (US$36.89 million). China says the perpetrators who attacked Chinese factories were possibly anti-China locals who have been provoked by some Western anti-China forces, NGOs and Hong Kong secessionists, hinting at the CIA.

There are some reports indicating that some 77 civil society organizations have been activated by the CIA supported ‘National Endowment for Democracy’ for launching protests and attacks. These were also presumably behind attacking vandalizing the China-aided factories, giving it the hue of a ‘colour revolution’. However, these attacks have been put down by the military. Concurrently, more than 200 NGOs have called on the UN to impose a global arms embargo on Myanmar because of the violent crackdown on the protestors.

Myanmar’s pro-democracy forces have sought to bring the KNU and other ethnic minority armies into an alliance against their common enemy – the Myanmar Military. The US may like to orchestrate such a movement through the CIA but such an effort is unlikely to make much headway because America is entering the Great Game in this region too late. China has been supporting and arming almost all militant groups in Myanmar for several decades and has built a proxy base that the US would find difficult to counter.

Protests and agitation can be expected to continue in cities like in Yangon, Mandalay and Naypyidaw but it is unlikely to make any difference to the military government. The only tool US has to pressure Myanmar is sanctions, which will push the country closer into China’s embrace.  In fact the US needs to review its overall policy of sanctions which is helping to increase China’s geopolitical clout and facilitating its geostrategic goals – counterproductive to US national interests since it wants to beat China in the race, as US President Joe Biden says. Yet applying sanctions across the board without adequate thought and examining alternatives creates the impression that China has successfully infiltrated American politics.

Rogue China’s founding father Mao Zhedong was firm in his dictum that political power grows out of the barrel of a gun. China stands firmly behind the ruling junta in Myanmar and Russia has demonstrated its close relationship as well. It has made no difference to China with all the sanctions and noise made by the US or the West about happenings in Hong Kong. China has had its way but were there no other alternatives? The Myanmar junta is strong enough to stay till it decides to hold elections and transfer power, sanctions or no sanctions or advice from ASEAN or other global bodies notwithstanding. The China tilt in Great Game Myanmar is more than evidentwith China having invested in it over past several years. The US will find it very difficult to straighten that tilt. Little wonder   that US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin has so far not been able to speak with China’s top general despite multiple attempts to set up talks, according to US defence officials.