Indian Defence Review

To flourish a terrorist outfit needs financial and logistics support, political patronage and a supportive or submissive population, which is the Centre of Gravity in prospering or combating terrorism (providing recruitment, intelligence, misguided ideology/religious narrative, media and cyber/technological support). To combat such dangerous terrorist outfits and save innocent population, it is of utmost importance to cut down its support system, its patronage and assistance, sincerely and honestly by every single legitimate power in the world, selective degrading of some organisations such as the ISIS with minimum collateral damages and take onboard some religious leaders, who can support the narrative of peaceful coexistence for all communities.

Apart from waking up the West, the 9/11 attack on the US made everyone realise the potential dangers of terrorism, announcing a different kind of global warfare, the danger of which began to be recognised by the global community. The Nuclear Security Summit held in the US on April 02, 2016, exhibited the grave concern of global powers, about the danger of mini nukes falling into the hands of terrorist organisations. India, which has since long been facing terrorism by proxy, can never forget the scars of the massacre in Mumbai in 2011. Surpassing the one which was held post World War II, the largest rally of French people to condemn the barbaric terrorist attack on innocent press employees in Paris in 2015, took place. Followed by the attack on Metro in 2016, similar attacks in Brussels including the last one on the airport in 2016, Australia, Madrid clearly established the pattern the growing pangs of terrorism are moving beyond the few traditionally disturbed areas to the entire globe.

The establishment and removal of Taliban rule in Afghanistan and the establishment of the Caliphate by the ISIS added the incentive of having territory/forming governments for the terrorist groups. The horrifying genocide of 150 innocent people including 134 children in Peshawar by Taliban terrorists (TTP); the rise of the ISIS and the barbaric massacre of numerous innocents not following their ideology in Iraq and Syria and abroad (including re-inventing slavery of captured women, executing 250 girls in Iraq refusing sex slavery, getting emboldened upon having established a Caliphate in absence of an honest, coordinated, synergised worthwhile response to attack their support system by the world community); the abduction of hundreds of girls and women by Boko Haram terrorists in Nigeria; problems in Yemen; the continued killings of Palestinians/Israelis and Lebanese; terrorist attacks in Indonesia and the numerous killings of innocent Indians by Pakistan-sponsored militants such as LeT in Jamm u and Kashmir, clearly indicate that the world is increasingly becoming a dangerous place to live notwithstanding the tall claims of the ‘Global War On Terror’ by the world community.

As we move ahead in 2016, we find that despite the world community as well as affected countries claiming that they have spent billions of dollars and made all efforts, including the supreme sacrifice of soldiers and innocent people, the unfortunate reality is that despite the declaration of War against Terror, the terror attacks have increased eight times since 2010. After 9/11, despite military operations in the Af-Pak region, the situation is no better except that the areas of terrorist operations have shifted and expanded globally. Also, the threat of its resurgence in Afghanistan is worrying everybody concerned. It is therefore, fair to deduce that there are some serious fault lines in the manner in which the world community is addressing terrorism and these need to be analysed.

A quick look at the illustration describes the basic problems which are making the war against terrorism ineffective. The real causes – perceived, propagated or politically driven, by interested powers are well known and shown in the illustration.

Besides, a narrative of religious fundamentalism and misguided ideologies, unjustifiable suppression of a certain groups of people, poor governance leading to socio-economic disparities, unauthorised settlements or lack of homeland and well directed proxies by interested nations are some of the reasons leading to most of the terrorist situations globally. These lead to the birth of an ideology – right or wrong, emergence of a leader, non-state actors, interest groups or countries which support them and want to use them to their advantage. This further leads to a relentless fight by these groups for the perceived cause, creating a sense of justification to take revenge e.g. misplaced jihad, leading to barbaric and irrational behaviour to the extent of unpredictable suicidal attacks.

If the fight is successful, as in the case of Taliban earlier, and ISIS later, the aim to hijack the Sunni uprising in Iraq and Syria, muster unprecedented support from the Wahhabi Salafi groups proclaiming to be the protractors of Sunnis and wanting to increase the size of the Caliphate to ultimately create an Islamic State out of Syria, Jordon, Iraq, Kuwait, Lebanon and Israel and govern it as a model legitimate Islamic state.

In case the fight is partially or not successful, it continues as an industry, as there are enough sponsors to invest in this industry for perceived political gains and adequate numbers of unemployed youth used to getting all the goodies in life through power of a gun. These groups such as Al Qaida and Taliban thereafter wait for fresh opportunity to emerge, because the genie, once out, cannot be pushed back into the bottle!

To flourish, a terrorist outfit needs financial and logistics support, political patronage and a supportive or submissive population, which is the Centre of Gravity in prospering or combating terrorism (providing recruitment, intelligence, misguided ideology/religious narrative, media and cyber/technological support). To combat such dangerous terrorist outfits and save innocent population, it is of utmost importance to cut down its support system, its patronage and assistance, sincerely and honestly by every single legitimate power in the world, selective degrading of some organisations such as the ISIS with minimum collateral damage and take onboard some religious leaders who can support the narrative of peaceful coexistence for all communities.

There appears to be some unhealthy competition amongst various terrorist groups to grow and prove their terror potential to the world to get more attention, followers, finances and other resources. In the recent times, while the Taliban (TTP) attacked Peshawar, the Al Qaida attacked Paris; the ISIS beheaded a Japanese captive followed by the attack on Tripoli Hotel; the Boko Haram attacked Baga in Nigeria, and the Shiite Houthy group dominated Yemen by taking the Presidential place captive and the trend is continuing.

The ISIS comes out to be the richest terror outfit getting approximately a billion US dollars per day through the sale of captured oil, contribution by interested parties, plundering captured areas, extortion, abductions and ransom. The ISIS has its own currency and administration with a very well organised media and cyber campaign that incorporates technologically savvy cadres from Western countries.

The other interesting trend is that whenever a terrorist organisation is banned, it changes its name, registers as a social welfare organisation and carries on terrorist activities as usual e.g. Hafiz Sayed despite being declared a global terrorist with a $10 million bounty on his head, continues to make provocative speeches at organised gatherings, unchecked by the Pakistani establishment.

Global Fault Lines in Dealing with Terrorism

Some of the identifiable fault lines for the ineffectiveness of the global War on Terrorism are summarised as under:

•   Double game by most of the global players, interested parties in/of the affected regions. Most regional and global players have their political/ strategic/ economic/ religious interests and they do not mind fighting one terrorist group while helping another. This madness must end, if we want a safe world. e.g. Media reports indicating Saudi Arabia sending money to Sunni militant organisations, at the same time launching air attacks in Yemen without UN sanctions and posing to support multi-lateral forces in fight against terror, covert support by Iran to Shia militants and crying foul when the ISIS attacks their border guards. Theories of “Good and Bad Taliban”, “Good and Bad Terrorists” have done enough damage to global society and need to be discarded. The idea of supporting regime changes on the pretext of peace or any other reasons by global powers has always misfired so far. It needs to be realised that a terrorist is a terrorist and history has proved that whoever propagates this monster, will eventually be beaten and destroyed by it. For example, the attack on Karachi airport, killings in Peshawar and in the Shia mosque with 61 dead in Sindh on January 30 this year are worthwhile lessons. Media coverage “Untangling the Syrian Conflict” in The Times of India, the Times Global, November 20, 2015, clearly brings out the conflicting interests of various parties in tackling the ISIS, and the lack of synergy amongst regional and global powers in dealing with such a sensitive issue.

•  Physical elimination of the ISIS Caliphate by using military force. The US in their National Security Strategy document recognised the ISIS as a major global threat and reaffirmed its commitment to “degrade and ultimately defeat the radical group”. The world community is shying away from the fact that they need to sideline other differences and get together and use force to eliminate the Caliphate in Iraq and Syria, which may require fighting alongside Iran, Syria, other Islamic countries and neighbours. Air and drone attacks alone or merely sending troops to train the Iraqi Army may be inadequate. The magnitude of the crisis and the strength of the ISIS require surgical ground operations to liberate the Caliphate, with boots on ground and not purely by air attacks. In case the Caliphate is allowed to grow or stabilise, it will attract a greater number of Islamic fanatic youth to a so-called pure ‘Sunni state’ which will hurt everyone globally.

•  Selective support to terrorism, proxy wars needs to be given up by every country. Erstwhile President Musharraf, when in power, as per media reports, referred to terrorists as his ‘strategic assets or tools’ to be unleashed as per Pakistan’s strategic requirement. The same organisations have multiplied exponentially with some going against the Pakistan Army and the ISI who propagated them. Most intelligentsia identify the Saudi Arabia–Iran rivalry as one of the biggest hurdles in synergising counter-terror operations.

•   Conflicting interests of regional and global players resulting in direct or indirect patronage to terrorists needs to be checked and a global consensus needs to be built on that. The Taliban and Haqqani network were created and supported during the Cold War era, and post 9/11, the tables turned. Arab support to Hamas and getting back damaging response from Israel are some examples of this fault line. There are some countries that want terrorism to continue so that their small arms and explosive industry continues to flourish.

•  Inability of the UN as a central global organisation to control the various militancy-related crisis situations. Besides the UN not being organised for it, the major world powers have not shown any inclination to do so, despite the UN being the most recognised neutral global body. The crises in Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan and Nigeria are some of the examples.

•   While combating terrorism collateral damages need to be minimised. Air attacks resulting in killing of innocent people multiply the number of terrorists, because one innocent person killed will create some more terrorists in that family to avenge the deaths.

•  The biggest fault line is that the global community, in its fight against terrorism, unfortunately, is fighting the effects of the crisis in affected areas and not the causes and the support system including people, who are the centre of gravity in combating terrorism. Global banning of recruitment, financial and logistics support, synergising intelligence, moderating cyber and media coverage and the Islamic community issuing counter narrative of peace and co-existence, is the need of the hour.

Risk Analysis

It is learnt that 80 per cent deaths due to terrorism have been in Iraq Afghanistan, Pakistan, Nigeria and Syria.

Global Risk

• Terrorist strikes possible anywhere in globe. Unsafe world.
• Global expansion of Islamic Jihad, Caliphate, if not controlled.
• Risk of nuclear know-how and WMD falling into the hands of terrorists. Next level- CBRN terrorism. Likelihood of tech know-how to manufacture nuclear bombs reaching terrorists from Pakistan deliberately or otherwise, dangerous for entire world. The ISIS is looking for expertise to make tactical nukes, having got nuclear material from laboratories. The threat of proliferation of Tactical Nuclear bomb technology falling into the hands of Jihadis and ‘Dirty Bomb’.
• Global increase in refugees resulting turbulence in demography, economy and risk of further induction of terrorists in various parts of the world.
• Free flow of oil from the Middle-East and the Gulf, especially to energy deficient countries may suffer as the region has one-third of the oil and one-tenth of the gas in the world.
• Global upsurge in extortion, abduction, kidnapping, drug trafficking, smuggling of small arms and other criminal activities.
• Cyber terrorism.
• Global recruitment for Jihad.
• Abuse of Islam by these terrorists may lead to everyone viewing Muslims with suspicion across the globe and their immigration becoming difficult.

The United States

• Increasing threat of terror strikes on US soil due to growing hatred for the US amongst terrorist groups.
• Risk of prolonged deployment in the Af-Pak region and the Middle East may result in domestic pressure on President Obama, especially due to different types of challenges appearing in South and East China Sea and North Korea. However, a global war against the ISIS may become inevitable.
• Having learnt a lesson in Iraq, withdrawal without proper stabilisation of Afghanistan, or handing over security situation to ANSF, dominated by Uzbeks, Tajiks, Hazaras, and other minority ethnic groups coupled under the threat of resurgence of Taliban and Al Qaida is inviting another disaster or civil war.
• Compulsions for strategic realignment e.g. fighting the ISIS along with Iran and Syria.
• Sharp rise in Arab American population may invite more US recruits into the ISIS.
• Opportunity cost in the Asia Pacific and other strategically important areas.

China

Despite declaring itself as part of the global war on terrorism, China’s logic of putting on hold JeM Chief Masood Azhar being declared as global terrorist, on the excuse that he does not meet the criteria for it, does not appear convincing to anyone, when the JeM itself as an organisation was declared a terrorist organisation in 2001, because of its links with Al Qaeda and other terrorist organisations.

China may feel that these actions of appeasing the terrorist groups and showing support to Pakistan are in her strategic interest to keep insurgency in Xinjiang under control and restricted to fringes, but are against the global mood, besides being irksome to India. These highlight the double game by most global powers to help some countries, regimes or terrorist groups suiting her strategic interests and fight those which do not suit them.

Although $42 billion investment as ‘power and energy aid’ is worth gaining access to $3 trillion in mineral and energy resources through the CPEC and involvement in Afghanistan, will getting into the Northern region of Pakistan really give China a buffer from the spread of Islamic fundamentalists looking for resting and hiding places?

Chinese gamble of investing in Pakistan, which hosts the maximum number of terrorist groups in the world, and their terrorist groups can backfire, as some of these terrorist groups such as TTP, are not controlled by the Pakistan establishment and are attacking the Pakistani military itself. Most of them do not like any foreign presence including US and China, even at the cost of development. Hence this gesture may not give China the license of safety of CPEC, avoiding safe havens for Uyghur, or hold fire against the IS plotting action in Xinjiang/China. Reports of Uyghur rebels being trained by ISIS/ Pakistan may not prevent Jihadi fallouts in Xinjiang.

The kind of terrorist recruitment and actions seen in last few months may not leave the Chinese diasporas immune to such activity, and can cause a threat to an otherwise safe Eastern seaboard, after all no one imagined 9/11 in US, till it actually happened. The smooth flow of oil may get obstructed causing energy shortage in Tibet and Xinjiang. Plans of transnational highways and oil pipelines to connect Europe to Southeast Asia and CPEC may be in jeopardy.

Countries Neighbouring Syria and Iraq

The extension of the Caliphate may become the first terrorist state, in the world if not checked in acquiring self-acclaimed legitimacy. All the neighbours are worried. Jordon, Iran, and Turkey are also shivering.

Iran is committed to protecting Shia shrines in Iraq and helping Maliki. It sent Revolutionary Guards to fight ISIS in Iraq.

Lebanon is worried that Shia-dominated Hezbollah may lose the support of Iran resulting in a boost for ongoing terrorism in the region and causing heavy penalty on socio-economic and infrastructure development. The impact is being seen in Egypt with 32 dead in a recent attack and in the attack on a hotel in Libya.

Gulf States including Saudi Arabia covertly funding Sunni militants although officially oppose barbaric actions and the Caliphate of the ISIS. Qatar covertly funding Al Qaida affiliates Al-Nusra as it does not like Assad and Maliki government.

Dream of Kurdistan

Having outlawed Kurdish militant organisations Turkey is now helping Kurds in Iraq to stop the rise of the ISIS Caliphate extending towards them.

Turkey and Iran are worried about the revival of Kurdish ambition of Kurdistan (Turkey to Afghanistan), beginning with the Kurds asking for more autonomy in Turkey and Turk militants getting active.

Risks for South Asia

• The killing of a secular Bangladeshi Professor on April 23, 2016, claimed by the IS (as per media reports) and a series of such events announce the footprints of the IS in South Asia.
• Success of the ISIS may motivate other militant groups for more vigorous actions and increase their area of influence.
• Signs of Al Qaida, Taliban, ISIS, their affiliates and splinter groups already seen in most South Asian countries including India.
• US-NATO withdrawal without proper stabilisation of Afghanistan will increase instability in South Asia.
• Unchecked and imploding Pakistan will step up terrorism in South Asia by supporting all kinds of terrorist groups.
• Latent radicalism in Bangladesh and Muslim-Buddhist strife in Myanmar and Sri Lanka could also be exploited.
• ISIS inroads in this region may be faster than expected.

Risks for India

• Negative fallouts in the Kashmir Valley.
• Security of roughly seven million Indian diaspora living in Middle-East countries send back about $35 to $40 billion as remittances, which serve our economy well.
• Grave danger of interruptions in oil flow. India imports 70 per cent of its oil from this region. Iraq is the second largest supplier of oil to India.
• Turbulence in the Af-Pak region has a major impact on Indian security.
• India has excellent relations with most countries having contrary interests in this region.
• Taliban and Al Qaida have been emboldened with the success of the IS. They are all competing to be the leading terrorist group for the cause of Islamic jihad. Activities like the attack in Paris by Al Qaida may well be planned in India as well. Even Boko Haram claims to be the deadliest.
• In efforts to increase influence in South Asia, there are signs of linkages with militant groups in and around India. AQIS are associate jihadi groups seeking entry into India via Bangladesh, Nepal and other neighbours.

Conclusion

Today, a large number of countries are facing terrorist threats and are trying to contain or combat these in stand-alone mode, despite acknowledging that such problems have regional and international linkages. For example, air strikes by Russia and France after the Paris attack do not seem to have caused any significant effect on the IS. The problem is more acute for certain nations, who do suffer from such problems, but do not have adequate resources and defensive apparatus to fight the same. Thus there is a need for the global community including United Nations to take initiative and convince its members to formulate a global strategy to combat these threats and concerns, which would entail aggressive political, military and diplomatic actions.

It is high time that the international community sensitises itself to future challenges to peace and make global efforts to address these global concerns with deliberations in a synergised manner.

• We need to first stop the double game by all global and regional powers of opposing one terrorist group and supporting another based on petty interests, because creating this menace is easy but controlling it subsequently is difficult, and the guns can turn back to the creator/sponsor any time. The desire of global powers to initiate regime change for favourable regime needs to be given up, as it has turned too risky.
• A comprehensive UN Convention on International Terrorism to punish those, who shelter and finance terrorists, needs to be formulated and followed religiously.
• A counter narrative by those who understand and practice religion, religious leaders, intelligentsia to educate people that no religion advocates killing innocent people must reach the youth and affected population, as the affected population is the Centre of Gravity of Counter terrorist operations.
• Countries propagating proxy war and supporting terrorists, overtly or covertly for whatever reasons, must be boycotted by the global community.
• The Caliphate of the IS needs to be eliminated with synergised use of combat power including boots on ground, besides air attacks and application of other combat resources, by all global powers as well as affected countries.
• Cyber support and free flow of intelligence and early warning to affected countries will help the response timings and mechanisms. The need to create a cyber capability to beat the cyber network of the terrorists is a pressing issue and needs to be undertaken on a war footing. Global financial institutions must be asked to share information as the IS cannot extort a billion dollars without the former’s knowledge.
• The fault lines indicated need serious considerations before the world faces an unprecedented risk of uncontrollable terrorism and it is too late to respond. Announcement of sending US troops by the US President in the third week of April 2016 is a positive signal in this regard.