Indian Defence Review

Conclusion

The above analysis makes it clear that Pakistan has a long way to go especially in the strengthening of the sinews of power and in terms of capability to tackle the internal security challenge. It is perhaps for the first time, that we are seeing an articulation of the importance of the internal security matrix in the Pakistan military. Recent statements emanating from GHQ Rawalpindi make it clear that the military is now seriously considering its own role within this matrix. In fact, it is a catch 22 situation wherein a move in any direction could lead to erosion of power and status. Maintaining status quo and yet moving towards a goal is going to the main challenge before the army in Pakistan.

Uncertainty and internal strife have the hallmark of Pakistan in the last decade. These two conditions have always made India wary of its neighbour, both in terms of the threats that it poses and in terms of the diplomatic challenges it throws up. In a sense, the recent events in Pakistan have shown that New Delhi’s articulation about Pakistan having become the global epicenter of terrorism is now recognized by even the United States. And yet linked as it is intricately to Afghanistan, it is important for India to view any long term solution for Pakistan as being interlinked with the developments in Kabul. In policy terms, the challenge is to cooperate with Islamabad while ensuring that fundamentals on terrorism are not compromised. At the same time, the American presence in Afghanistan should be contextualized in terms of our own interests and move ahead on the same path as presently pursued.

The military in Pakistan will have to come up with new innovations in terms of global best practice on counter-insurgency if it is to maintain its supremacy in the pegging order of the state. This can only happen if there is some new thinking and that is the challenge for General Kayani. Tomorrow will never come for Pakistan if its nuclear weapons get into the hands of jihadi’s!

Notes and References :

1. Khalid Qayum, ” Pakistan’s Army Chief Kayani Pledges to Stay Out of Politics” Bloomberg L.P., 6 March 2008.
2. Ibrahim Sajid Malick, ‘Pakistan to keep, a bit longer, current Army Chief’, Posted on 17 May 2010 at http://ibrahimsajidmalick.com/pakistan-to-keep-a-bit-longer-current-army-chief/1410/
3. Ibid.
4. Wilson John, Osama’s death: The Key Question, 03 May 2011 http://www.orfonline.org/cms/sites/orfonline/modules/analysis/AnalysisDetail.html?cmaid=22929&mmacmaid=22930
5. Reza Jan, Continuity in a Time of Flux: Pakistan Army Chief’s Term Extended, August 9, 2010 AEI Critical Threats http://www.criticalthreats.org/pakistan/continuity-time-flux-pakistan-army-chief%E2%80%99s-term-extended-august-09-2010
6. R Banerji, Kayani and his Generals, Article No.: 1711, Date: 29/12/2010. Centre for Land Warfare Studies. http://www.claws.in/index.php?action=master&task=712&u_id=36
7. Micheal Krepon, Osama and U.S.-Pakistan Relations, Analysis, May 02, 2011. http://www.stimson.org/summaries/osama-and-us-pakistan-relations/
8. Smarting, Pak Army chief warns US, India, Indian Express, Friday, May 6, 2011, 02:10 hrs, Islamabad. http://www.indianexpress.com/news/smarting-pak-army-chief-warns-us-india/786640/0
9. Ibid.
10. If sovereignty is breached, US ties will be reviewed: Kayani Thursday, 5 May 2011 | http://www.nerve.in/news:253500391449 | Channel: Asia
11. Micheal Krepon, Pakistan May 05, 2011, Pakistan, Testimony Of Michael Krepon, Co-Founder, The Stimson Center Before The Senate Committee On Foreign Relations, May 5, 2011. http://www.stimson.org/summaries/pakistan-1/
12. Karin Brulliard, Anger simmers in Pakistani army over bin Laden raid, Published: Washington Post, May 19, 2011 | Updated: Saturday, May 21, 3:08 AM http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/in-pakistans-army-anger-simmers/2011/05/18/AFU8yB7G_story.html
13. Senator Kerry meets Pakistan Army chief, Monday, 16 May 2011 | http://www.nerve.in/news:253500393723 | channel: Asia
14. Graeme Smith, Republic Of Fables: Pakistan’s reaction to Osama’s killing shows it’s a country of contradictions, The Globe and the Mail, May 15, 2011. http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/pakistans-reaction-to-osamas-killing-shows-its-a-country-of-contradictions/article2021970/singlepage/
15. PNS Mehran attack, Editorial, The Dawn, June 9, 2011. http://www.dawn.com/2011/05/24/pns-mehran-attack.html
16. Pakistan raid raises nuclear fears, Dawn.com May 15, 2011. http://www.dawn.com/2011/05/25/pakistan-raid-raises-nuclear-fears.html
17. Bob Dietz, Rising anger amid accusations about who killed Shahzad, CPJ Blog, June 2, 2011. http://cpj.org/blog/2011/06/rising-anger-amid-accusations-about-who-killed-sha.php#more
18. A Journalist is Silenced, Editorial, The Hindu, June 2, 2011. http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/editorial/article2071554.ece 
19. Suhasini Haidar, The story that killed Saleem Shahzad, June 2, 2011 The Hindu http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/op-ed/article2071460.ece Also see, Anita Joshua, ISI takes flak for Shahzad’s killing, The Hindu, ISLAMABAD, June 1, 2011 http://www.thehindu.com/news/international/article2068550.ece
20. Ayesha Siddiqa, Pakistan’s Counterterrorism Strategy: Separating Friends from Enemies, The Washington Quarterly, Winter 2011, 34:1 pp. 149_162, http://www.twq.com/11winter/docs/11winter_Siddiqa.pdf
21. Kayani: ‘It is unjust to criticize Pakistan’ for not locating Osama, The Hindu, Chennai, May 3, 2011 http://www.thehindu.com/news/international/article1988673.ece
22. 139th Corps Commanders Conference, Press Release No. PR/134- 2011-ISPR, Rawalpindi, June 9, 2011. http://www.ispr.gov.pk/front/main.asp?o=t-press_release&id=1763
23. Ibid.
24. Narayanan Komerath, Has Pakistan Lost Its Nuclear Weapons?, Bharat Rakshak Monitor, Volume 5(1) July-August 2002. http://www.bharat-rakshak.com/MONITOR/ISSUE5-1/narayanan.html
25. Mohan Malik, The China Factor in the India-Pakistan Conflict, Parameters, Spring 2003, http://www.carlisle.army.mil/usawc/parameters/Articles/03spring/malik.pdf
26. Ibid. fn. 51.
27. Olivier Immig & Jan Van Heugten A Taste Of Power: The Uneasy Reign Of Benazir Bhutto 1988-1990. The Netherlands 1992, http://www.immigvanheugten.nl/downloads/A%20taste%20of%20power%20-%20the%20uneasy%20reign%20of%20Benazir%20Bhutto%201988-1990%20(MERA%20April%201992).pdf
28. See Fn. 22 above.
29. Ibid.
30. Ibid.