Geopolitics

Fallout of the Ukraine Conflict
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Issue Net Edition | Date : 06 Jun , 2022

There was some panic in Delaware in the US on June 4 after a small white aircraft breached the restricted airspace of the POTUS Joe Biden’s beach house. Biden was quickly moved to a safe house though it turned out to be an inadvertent act by a civilian flying, no Russian mischief. But the surging inflation in the West from the Ukraine has got Biden worried even as he laughed off the remark by Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla Motors that he may lay off 10 percent of the Tesla staff looking at the difficult economic times ahead.

Biden’s plan to visit Saudi Arabia in the near future has been pushed back to July according to the White House as the Biden administration needs more time to plan the trip that will include stops in several countries. Biden would also be visiting Israel during the same trip. Dates for the July visit to Saudi Arabia and Israel have still not been finalized.   

Biden’s visit to Saudi Arabia will be a comedown of sorts as he had called Saudi Arabia a “pariah” state after the killing of Jamal Khashoggi although Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud had denied any personal involvement in the killing. In the bid to block out Russian oil due to the US-engineered Ukraine Conflict, Biden had sent US Secretary of State Antony Blinken to Saudi Arabia to ask the Saudis for releasing more oil. And, when this did not work out, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson visited Riyadh as Biden’s emissary. But the latter also received a snub.

Now Biden is to visit Saudi Arabia and will also be meeting the Crown Prince to mend fences. How far he will succeed is yet to be seen but the Arab world has been witness to America using the Middle East like a doormat over the decades – invading and plundering the region with human rights violations galore and using terrorist organizations as proxy forces. The spectacle of the Biden administration wooing Iran and Venezuela for oil having subjected these countries to arbitrary sanctions is a quirk of fate which is amusing.

According to the Wall Street Journal, tankers carrying Russian oil arrived at the ports of New York and New Jersey in May via the Suez Canal across the Atlantic Ocean despite the US embargo on Russian energy resources, which may not apply if the product is of mixed origin; US .oil traders could continue to import Russian energy products if they were manufactured in an unsanctioned country and processed.

But perhaps there are other reasons also for Biden visiting Saudi Arabia. Biden’s effort to divide the world over the Ukraine Conflict has resulted in Saudi Arabia and Argentina  indicating their willingness to join the expanded BRICS in the near future. This will also result in the counter to the SWIFT system coming up faster – natural fallout of America arbitrarily freezing funds in Central Banks of Afghanistan and Russia, nations and switching them off from the SWIFT system which amounts to economic terrorism. First handing over Afghanistan to the Taliban and then seizing funds of the Central Bank of Afghanistan despite the hunger and poverty in Afghanistan is a real shame.

Saudi Arabia had also said that it would go nuclear if Iran acquires nuclear capability and may be working towards the same. China anyway is suspected of helping Suadi Arabia develop ballistic missiles. The Iran Nuclear Talks have received a setback with the recent assassination of Colonel Khodai of the Quds Force of Iran. Referring to the US and its allies, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi blamed “the hands of global arrogance”. Should China decide to hold a test for an Iranian nuke (and of Saudi Arabia?) on its soil, it would be a terrific slap on the Biden administration.

Biden has confirmed that the US would provide Ukraine with the most advanced missile systems and munitions that will enable it to more accurately hit key targets on the battlefield, but stressed that the US would not transfer to Ukraine weapons capable of hitting targets in Russia. Earlier, at a meeting of the UN Security Council, Russian Permanent Representative to the UN Vasily Nebenzya said that the West is committing a war crime by supplying weapons to Ukraine, which increases the risk of a direct clash between Russia and the US.

According to Julianne Smith, US Permanent Representative to NATO, NATO will proclaim Russia as the main threat to itself in its new strategic concept.  In addition to Turkey’s President Erdogan, Croatian President Zoran Milanovic has said he would block the process of considering applications from Sweden and Finland to join NATO.

The CNN says that the US, EU and UK are discussing the terms of a ceasefire in Ukraine without the participation of representatives from Kiev. Negotiations are ongoing, including on a four-stage settlement plan proposed by Italy, but the US is opposed to it – which means it is a non-starter.

General Mark Milley, Chief of the US General Staff told Fox News that despite the difficulties in predicting the Ukrainian crisis, the Pentagon believes that peace talks can become its logical ending. He said other outcomes of events in Ukraine could be either a decisive victory for one of the parties, or a stalemate, adding, “There are many alternatives. We are not sure how everything will end.” But ground truth is that the Biden administration wants the Ukraine Conflict to go on endlessly.

Russia is conducting exercises using mobile missile systems ‘Yars’ which is a nuclear deterrent missile system. According to the Russian Defence Ministry, more than a thousand military personnel and more than 100 pieces of equipment are involved in these exercises in the Ivanovo region. ‘Yars’ is capable of hitting targets at a distance of up to 11 thousand km. It is equipped with a multiple warhead with maneuvering individual targeting units. Russia has, however, said that it will not be using tactical nuclear weapons.

The US aircraft carrier Ronald Reagan concluded a naval exercise with South Korea in the Philippine Sea on June 4. There is speculation that North Korea is preparing to conduct its first nuclear test after 2017. The US apparently does not want South Korea to be included in the Quad – perhaps due to fear of reactions from China and North Korea? South Korean President Yoon Seok-youl had wanted to attend the recent Quad Leaders Summit in Tokyo as an observer but received no encouragement from the Biden administration.  

Meanwhile the Russian Pacific Fleet is being augmented with the nuclear-powered submarine ‘Knyaz Oleg’ equipped with ballistic missiles and multi-purpose submarine cruiser ‘Novosibirsk’ equipped with cruise missiles. In addition, the fleet will also receive a third submarine ‘Magadan’ under Project.636.3.

Russia is determined to achieve its aim of liberating the Donbas region. It never wanted to capture Kiev as alleged by Western propaganda, But the Ukraine Conflict will continue, driven by the Biden administration, NATO and the nazification of Europe, with no concern for the adverse effect on poorer countries suffering poverty, hunger and food shortages. Other fallouts may be worse in case the conflict escalates.  

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The views expressed are of the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions or policies of the Indian Defence Review.

About the Author

Lt Gen Prakash Katoch

is Former Director General of Information Systems and A Special Forces Veteran, Indian Army.

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One thought on “Fallout of the Ukraine Conflict

  1. It never wanted to capture Kiev as alleged by Western propaganda, But the Ukraine Conflict will continue, driven by the Biden administration, NATO and the nazification of Europe, with no concern for the adverse effect on poorer countries suffering poverty, hunger and food shortages. Other fallouts may be worse in case the conflict escalates.

    Are you a veteran or a clown? Russian troops probably came for a vacation to Kyiv in the opening hours of the invasion or they lost their way! Seriously demented articles like this one should be consigned to the rubbish bin of history. High time he is admitted to a psychiatric facility!

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