Indian Defence Review

Unmanned and Unlimited

Hackers are also credited with China’s spectacular progress in UAV production over the past decade or so. One reason why the latest Chinese UAVs closely resemble US drones and can even compete with them in the international market is technology clandestinely acquired from the US government and private companies like General Atomics. The China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation (CASC) produces the Caihong 5 (CH-5) or Rainbow 5. This highly capable attack and reconnaissance UAV has an operational range of approximately 2,000km with satellite communication. It is likely that this range can be greatly increased. CASC sources claim that the performance and operational capability of the CH-5 is comparable with that of the US-made General Atomics MQ-9 Reaper and it comes at half the price.

Then there is AVIC’s next-generation Medium-Altitude Long-Endurance (MALE) UAV, the Wing Loong II. It is now being tested in the strike mode and reportedly hit five successive targets with five different kinds of missiles during a recent flight test. In December 2017, China’s National University of Defence Technology conducted a “swarming” test involving about two dozen small UAVs. The entire group functioned as a single entity with portions of the flight conducted autonomously.

China has also become the world’s third-largest arms exporter, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), which is dedicated to research into conflict, armaments, arms control and disarmament. And unmanned systems and missiles form a significant slice of these exports. Although the quality and reliability of Chinese systems is not always assured, customers can expect roughly 75 percent of the capability of Western alternatives for 50 percent of the price – a bargain offer. Consequently, about a dozen countries, some of whom were spurned by Western suppliers, have bought armed Chinese UAVs.

Civilian Challenge

After decades of struggle, China’s civilian aerospace industry finally seems set for take-off, with the new C919 168-seat single-aisle airliner making its first flight in May 2017. The C919 is manufactured by state-owned Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China (COMAC). China’s first two commercial jets were rather disappointing. The Shanghai Y-10 was abandoned after just two aircraft were built. As for the COMAC ARJ21 78-seat regional jet, only three have been delivered till date and commercial flights have been temporarily halted. Will it be third time lucky for the C919?

A long road lies ahead before the C919 achieves certification. By the time it enters service, the technology will be at least a generation behind other airliners. According to the Chinese news agency, Xinhua, the C919 has received 815 orders from 28 customers. However, these orders are mainly from Chinese domestic airlines and most are options rather than firm orders. Ultimately, airlines and their passengers may feel more secure with tried and tested aircraft from Boeing and Airbus. AVIC is also working on a new regional turboprop, the MA700, as a competitor to the ATR 72 and Bombardier Q400. Overall, unlike the military domain, the Chinese civil aerospace industry is yet to prove capable of producing commercially viable civilian aircraft, leave alone being able to compete with the established players.

Hypersonic Hyperactivity

Hypersonic flight (anything faster than Mach 5) is at the cutting edge of research. It has the potential to revolutionise both military and civilian aerospace. The hypersonic technology race is intensifying and China is investing heavily in it. In fact, it is probably the only serious competitor to the US and Russia. China is building a large military-grade hypersonic wind tunnel, expected to be the world’s fastest facility of this kind when construction is complete by 2020.

It is also working on a variety of technologies necessary to build a practical hypersonic vehicle, such as plasma jets to steer hypersonic thrust, advanced heat resistant composites and exotic fuels. Like the US, China is investigating both space planes and scramjets (supersonic combustion ramjets). A hypersonic space plane could circumnavigate the globe in two or three hours, well out of the reach of conventional air defences. The most likely configuration would be a combined cycle engine, consisting of a turbofan stage for the period from take-off till supersonic flight and a ramjet stage for the subsequent acceleration to hypersonic flight.

Scramjets have a variety of applications, including space launches, hypersonic combat aircraft and airliners, as well as high-speed cruise missiles to replace ballistic missiles. Scramjet powered missiles are lighter and more efficient than conventional ones because they are air-breathing and don’t need to carry a separate supply of oxidizer.

China has already tested a scramjet boosted from a land-based launcher. It plans to launch a home-grown, reusable space plane for the first time in 2020. Since 2013, China has also conducted at least seven successful test flights of its Hypersonic Glide Vehicle (HGV), the DF-ZF, capable of speeds of over 5,000 kilometres per hour. Flying in the near-space region of 20 to 100km altitude, such HGVs cover far greater distances than ballistic missiles, before gliding at hypersonic speeds towards their intended target.

This poses a severe challenge to early-warning systems and lessens the response time available to the defender. An HGV-based missile can therefore breach most defences without suffering any loss of manoeuverability. China probably tested the nuclear capable DF-17 ballistic missile coupled with the HGV in November 2017 and is expected to reach initial operating capability by 2020.

Space Success

China sees space as an effective way to showcase its technological competence. Thanks to a carefully considered and well-structured space programme, backed by enormous financial clout, it has achieved competence in many fields. And it is not diffident about its achievements. In 2017, Chinese Academy of Engineering academician Wu Weiren, who is also the chief designer of China’s lunar exploration programme, said, “We used 37 years to complete the first 100 launches, but only seven years for the second 100.” Thanks to its Long March 5 carrier rocket, China is now firmly in the zone of heavy-lift rocketry. China’s Chang’e-5 unmanned lunar sample return mission is due for launch in 2019.

By 2020, its navigation system Beidou will achieve global coverage. It will launch the core module of its manned space station around 2020 and intends to make the station fully operational by 2022. In fact, this may be the world’s only space station after 2024 if the International Space Station (ISS) is retired as planned. China also plans a manned lunar exploration mission around 2024, with two Chinese taikonauts scheduled to collect soil from the moon. Looking ahead to 2050, China may have established a permanent research and development base on the moon and set foot on Mars.

However, impressive as China’s space capability seems, it needs to be viewed in perspective. Its most advanced Long March 5 rocket can place 25 tonne of cargo in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) and could possibly transport a five-tonne payload to Mars. In contrast, the Falcon Heavy, developed by the 16-year-old private American company SpaceX can already place 63.8tonne payload in LEO and take a 16.8tonne payload to Mars. In future, China’s Long March 9, intended mainly for human lunar missions, may have a maximum payload capacity of 140 tonnes to LEO and 50 tonnes to Lunar Transfer Orbit (LTO). But that depends on how successful its development and testing programme is.

China is unlikely to be at a disadvantage in military application of space. While paying lip service to space arms control, it does not shy away from space weapons. Its arsenal may potentially include direct-ascent Anti-Satellite (ASAT) missiles, ground-based Directed Energy Weapons (DEW) and the capability to execute rendezvous manoeuvres for destroying or grabbing satellites. It is developing and may even have clandestinely deployed, some DEW and satellite jammers. However, chastened by the international outcry following its January 2007 ASAT weapon test that generated the largest space debris field in history, it is now more circumspect in its testing.

China has already begun training of military units specially meant for counter-space operations. The ultimate aim will be to pose a threat to US Global Positioning System (GPS) satellites in Medium Earth Orbit (MEO) as well as many strategically important US government assets like missile early warning satellites, military and civilian communications satellites and intelligence-related satellites irrespective of which orbit they operate in.

When Will India Get Going?

China’s leaders recognise that aerospace mastery is critical if it is to become a military superpower. The dragon is closing the technology gap with the US and Russia and it is likely to take a lead in niche areas before long. In future, America will probably judge the capability requirements of its armed forces – especially its air and naval forces – against China, not its traditional rival Russia. Should India be apprehensive about China’s advances in aerospace technology? The short answer is – Yes. China has invested heavily in both air and space and taken a big lead over India. And that lead is still widening.

China has two modern fourth-generation and two fifth-generation combat jet programmes running concurrently, the only limitation being its failure to produce indigenous power plants. However, given its steely determination, the scale of its efforts and the sums it is investing, it is more than likely that this obstacle will be surmounted before too long. And China’s “all-weather friend” Pakistan is likely to be among the early beneficiaries of Chinese military aerospace success.

In contrast, India is badly off, ‘Make in India’ notwithstanding. All it has is the less than satisfactory Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) Tejas Mk 1, 1A and the “pie in the sky” Tejas Mk 2. There’s also an unresolved tussle between the Indo-Russian Fifth Generation Fighter Aircraft (FGFA), based on Russia’s Sukhoi Su-57 and the indigenous Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA). India’s civilian aerospace capability is mediocre to say the least.

The country is somewhat better placed in space, thanks to the sterling efforts of the Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO). However, ISRO focuses mainly on satellites for communication, weather forecasting and remote sensing. Its manned space programme is a decade or more behind China’s. And the maximum launch capability of its heaviest Geosynchronous Satellite Launch Vehicle (GSLV) Mk III is just eight tonne to LEO and four tonne to Geosynchronous Transfer Orbit (GTO). India is far behind China in hypersonic technology and has no military capability in space worth the name.

Much of India’s lacklustre performance in the crucial aerospace domain can be traced to a misguided faith in the ability of the public sector. It is essential now to involve both the public and private sectors and make progress in aerospace technology a national mission. As the US Air Force Chief of Staff General David L Goldfein said in May 2017, “We must push the boundaries of technology in every area. Our adversaries aren’t standing still. They are looking for every advantage they can get.” It is an attitude India needs to imbibe. If India ignores China’s challenge, the dragon’s flight could become rather unnerving for this country.