Seaward, the Indian Navy has to guard more than 7000 kms of coastline which again has become potentially troublesome with the recent foray of the Chinese Navy into the Indian Ocean and availability of Gwadar naval port in Baluchistan which was developed by help from China. Protection of ports of Mumbai and Kolkata, important hubs of commerce, along with another 20 major ports and 200 minor ports, constitute areas of vulnerability.
The recent raid on Mumbai used the sea route which may well be replicated increasingly in the future. India’s expanding maritime trade hence security of sea lanes becomes important. Security of air envelope above both land frontiers and maritime borders is a major responsibility of Indian Air Force, all the more critical in the age of high performance aircraft, deadly munitions and nuclear-tipped long range missiles. Indeed, the old concepts of geographical borders have changed. Now the borders are everywhere, even thousands of miles in the hinterland. Hence, there is need for round-the-clock radar coverage.
Hopefully, Pak society itself will find this harsh division of Islam unacceptable. And hopefully it will remain a largely domestic religious reformation movement and will not become a “second-coming” of the whirlwind of militant Islam which arose out of the sands of Arabia in 7th century and flattened empires and kingdoms and cast its shadow over half the globe.
Indian defense forces have also to ensure safety of vulnerable points of high value deep inside the country such as civil airports, oil installations, nuclear power plants, centers of critical research and above all, the seat of central government and parliament buildings in Delhi. As seen in the last few decades, external threat has morphed into a new face of war such as, infiltration, instigation of insurgency, terrorist attacks as also deep raids and bomb blasts in cities inside the country. Besides, the nuclear dimension has all but rendered full scale conventional war unlikely. Whatever be the case, a country has to maintain an elaborate security apparatus comprising requisite force levels of army, navy and air force forces supported by an integrated support structure of paramilitary forces, armed police, et al.
No wonder, outlay on defense accounts for a sizeable chunk of the national budget. Force levels needs must be commensurate with the enhanced capacity of Pakistan and China. The specifics of augmentation of Pak and Chinese defense forces is a function of professional assessment and intelligence but it will be prudent to assume that in the next encounter, India will find itself confronted with a vastly enhanced Pak military machine and a powerful Chinese naval presence in the Indian Ocean.
With respect to defense of borders, except for loss of chunks of territory in Kashmir and against China, Indian Armed Forces have performed exceedingly well for integrity of the “core issues”. India has successfully beaten off numerous Pak offensives in Kashmir, Siachen Glacier, and Kargil and helped Bangladesh gain its independence – a good report card by all standards. In comparison, the Pak Army for all its braggadocio and vaunted prowess, has never won a war. However, they have shown awesome expertise for instigating insurgencies in Afghanistan, India and Kashmir. Lately their chief “export” has been terrorism and message of radical Islam – Pakistan is the acknowledged epicenter of global terrorism. Against this threat, the Indian defense apparatus has been found wanting and Indian record for combating external as well as internal threat of this kind has been dismal.
India has been at the receiving end of unending terrorist attacks and bomb blasts showing little capacity for prevention, adequate response or retaliation except for issuing demarches, scoring doubtful scoring points and appeals to world community. To make matters worse, Pakistan has perhaps been successful, albeit to a limited extent, in infecting Indian Muslims as seen in suspected hand of home-grown jihadis in bomb blasts in Mumbai. Insurgency in Kashmir is raging undiminished, the main reason being Pak aid and abetment and infusion of terrorists. India has unwisely left the situation to fester without taking timely action against terrorist training camps in Pak held Kashmir.
It is no doubt also true that power resides in the hearts of men and in the wisdom and courage of its leaders, and that it also lies in its factories, universities and engines of economic growth. However, all these need protection by military power.
Now the situation has vastly deteriorated by Taliban successes in Pakistan which has brought them practically to India’s doorstep. India has to address this problem with courage and determination, lest it has to pay a heavy price later. India has to be prepared to face terrorist attacks of greater sophistication and ferocity everywhere in the country. Indeed, one cannot rule out a nuclear blackmail by a Taliban/Al Qaida smuggled bomb overland or through an Indian port. The picture is also unsatisfactory regarding internal threats by Naxals, Maoists and such like fringe elements.
Traditionally, countries are concerned with developments in their neighbouring states for reading portents of threats arising thereof. USA formulated the “Monroe Doctrine” concerning hostile regimes or developments in Southern Americas. President Bush went further and promulgated a policy of “Preemptive Action”. India is not a super power yet so it may not make such grandiose pronouncements, but it will do well to maintain a discreet watch on happenings around its periphery.
It is quite unexceptionable for a country to perceive its security borders as beyond its geographical borders. There are many non-military means to influence events and policies in neighbouring countries such as economic pacts, treaties of friendship and a whole gamut of mutual cooperation. For example, India has vital interests in happenings in Pakistan, Afghanistan, Tibet, Nepal, Bhutan, Bangladesh, South Eastern China adjoining its Arunachal region, Myanmar, Sri Lanka, islands in the Indian Ocean. Such interest would inform focus of foreign policy. A case in point is the loss of Indian influence in Nepal despite centuries old history of ethnic and cultural bonds and despite the strong military links of having thousands of Gurkha soldiers in the Indian Army.
The creeping shadow of China could be discerned since construction of a link road over Kodari Pass, but through neglect or misreading of situation, India lost its priceless advantage in Nepal. Similarly, India wielded significant influence in Afghanistan for ages, so but for India’s inflexible tilt to Russia, USA would have seen it as a more logical ally instead of or along with Pakistan. India also surrendered its influence in Tibet by accepting Chinese suzerainty. In times of rapid developments, there is need for nimble, vigilant and creative foreign policies. In fact this has been the Pak expertise for decades and which has paid her handsome dividends. At the present juncture, the geopolitical situation in the Indian neighbourhood is extremely fluid and evolving, so India has to think “out of the box” and not be afraid to take bold decisions.
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