Indian Defence Review

The ‘Heart of Asia’ conference in Islamabad is fifth in the series of ministerial level meetings that have been ongoing since 2011, in continuation of the ‘Istanbul Process’ that brings together senior representatives of a number of countries of the region in discussions aimed at enhancing security around Afghanistan and promoting economic development in that country.

In the Kabul Ministerial Meeting held in June 2012, seven CBMs were agreed upon viz Disaster Management, Counter Terrorism, Counter Narcotics, Chambers of Commerce, Commercial Opportunities, Regional Infrastructure and Education but not all attending agreed to all the CBMs, example being China who only agreed to first three. Significantly, Pakistan agreed to all seven CBMs but then Pakistan has continued to wage proxy war on Afghanistan.

At the 4th December 2014 London Conference co-hosted by UK and Afghanistan, 59 countries agreed to help make Afghanistan a viable state. However, the world has actually not done enough to help Afghanistan, the US-NATO thin out perpetuating the situation.

The current ‘Heart of Asia’ in Islamabad turned out to be special with EAM Sushma Swaraj calling on PM Nawaz Sharif, holding discussions with Sartaj Aziz, Adviser to the Pakistani PM on Foreign Affairs, and issue of the India-Pakistan Joint Statement centred on: condemning terrorism and resolving ed to cooperate in eliminating it; post meeting in Bangkok, the two NSAs to address all issues connected to terrorism; India assured of expediting early conclusion of the 26/11 Mumbai terror attack trial; and, agreement to a Comprehensive Bilateral Dialogue and directed the Foreign Secretaries to work out the modalities and schedule of the meetings under the Dialogue including Peace and Security, CBMs, J&K, Siachen, Sir Creek, Wullar Barrage/Tulbul Navigation Project, Economic and Commercial Cooperation, Counter-Terrorism, Narcotics Control, Humanitarian Issues, People to People exchanges and religious tourism. Undoubtedly, resumption of comprehensive dialogue is a good step but then proof of the pudding lies in its eating, so one has to wait and watch. India-Pakistan dialogues have been resumed in the past umpteen times but have been sabotaged through terrorist attacks and / or other provocative actions every time. Then you also have rodents like Musharraf saying, “Even if the Kashmir issue is resolved, jihad against India will continue”, and his recent statement, “Osama-bin-Laden, Ayman-al-Zhaveri, Haqqanis are our heroes ….. We trained the LeT against India”.

In this backdrop, what should one expect from Musharraf’s successors and protégés? Pakistan’s proxy war continues unabated. Terrorists gunned down in J&K yesterday were wearing JuD emblazoned shirts. What has Pakistan done to curb terrorist activities of LeT, JuD and their cohorts. Is Sartaj Aziz prepared to take back his public statement through BBC, “Pakistan should not engage in a war with those [insurgents / militants] whose target is not Pakistan.”

In his November 20 article titled ‘Who Runs Pakistan’ in Dawn, Aaasim Sajjad Akhtar only reconfirms what has been noted by Indians past decades – that the Pakistani military remains entrenched as arbiter in Pakistan’s political economy.

He goes on to say, “International support only buttresses the already impressive domestic position of the guardians (read military) of our physical and ideological frontiers. It was even reported recently that the latest accountability law drafted by NAB has explicitly excluded generals (and judges) from its purview ……. Augmenting the military’s sacred cow position is a religious establishment that has well-developed economic stakes ……. Unfortunately, the incumbents in this game are more often than not defenders rather than opponents of the status quo, lofty claims aside”. Nothing could describe better the stark reality. So while there is euphoria about the decision to resume the Comprehensive Bilateral Dialogue, is the Pakistani military on board? Indications appear to be to the contrary even if the NSA is the appointee of Army Chief Raheel Sharif.

Latter was not in favour of Nawaz Shariff opening up with India in the first place. If the Pakistani military wants, it can easily shut down the anti-India infrastructure in POK and stop all infiltration into J&K but on the contrary it is providing covering fire to assist infiltration, recent example being the infiltration in Tangdhar sector.

That the Taliban attack on Kandhar airbase was muscle flexing under direction of the Pakistani military was obvious. That is the tactics the ISI used in J&K whenever any India-Pakistan talks were held in India, even during visit of Pakistani parliamentarians delegation. The game of ‘we are also victims of terror’ doesn’t hold water any more.

The vicious attack in Kandhar killing some 47 people including nine militants and wounding 35, following the investment of Kunduz on September 28 was a clear message to President Ashraf Ghani who holds the aces. Sure Mullah Mansour Akhtar (backed by Haqqanis and ISI) may have been injured because anyone would like to be king of an organization whose writ is running in some 60 percent territory of Afghanistan, eyes the trillions worth of unexplored minerals, oil and gas, and who is an important player in the Great Game being played in the region. But to say that there is major power struggle in the Afghan Taliban is akin to then Army Chief Kayani selling to the US and Afghanistan that the Haqqanis were decoupling from Al Qaeda.

This had prompted Michael Hughes to write in July, 2010, “In a movement that should have floored US policymakers, Kayani was brazen enough to try and inveigle Afghanistan to strike a power-sharing arrangement with the Haqqanis. And Kayani, apparently the spokesperson for the Haqqani group, said they’d be willing to split from and denounce Al Qaeda, which is President Obama’s primary rationale for the war. However, there is a higher probability of General Kayani converting to Hinduism than there is of the Haqqani Network ever being decoupled from Al Qaeda”. Now if there is such a power struggle within the Afghan Taliban, how come they were able to invest major portion of Kunduz, capture Warduj, consolidate in Badakshan region and now attack Kandhar in such organized fashion?

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The ISIS consolidating in Nangarhar Province and other regions of Afghanistan have been inducted by Pakistan. Afghan’s query if this would not harm Pakistan – of course it would but isn’t that the case with the ISI having links with some dozen plus terrorist organizations, both international and regional level. Would the Pakistani military clamp down on them when it has been reveling on proxy forces as the currency of power all these years? If it is not actually able to control their sanctuaries along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border, why not ask for international assistance in doing so? Why is Zakiur Rehman Lakhvi continuing to be treated as royalty, as described in Pakistani media? Why not hand over Dawood Ibrahim to India? What about arresting Mullah Asim Umar, the AQIS head who is a Pakistani national? In the ultimate analysis, the onus is very much on the Pakistani military whether it wants the Comprehensive Bilateral Dialogue to succeed.

For this, the Pakistani military will have to make a radical change by shunning the state policy of terrorism. Admission of involvement in 26/11 Mumbai terrorist attacks needs moral courage. For that matter note the anguish in the recent article titled ‘Pakistan still in denial and self-deceit’ by Shamsher M Chowdhury, Bir Bikram, former Foreign Secretary of Bangladesh, highlighting the genocide and crimes against humanity by the Pakistani military, that Pakistan continues to deny despite losing East Pakistan in the process.