Defence Industry

Defence Budget 2016: Hits and Misses for the IAF
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Issue Vol. 31.2 Apr-Jun 2016 | Date : 09 Jul , 2016

IAF’s Capital Requirements

The LCA ‘Tejas’ is further delayed and yet does not meet all specifications. It will now join IAF in 2017. The Tejas Mk I is estimated to cost around Rs 250 crore apiece. The IAF needs six squadrons of these. Tejas Mk II with full specifications compliance with the larger and more powerful GE F-414 engine may be inducted in 2022. For the Tejas, the IAF will one day require an Active Electronically Scanned Array (AESA) radar, Infra-Red Search and Track (IRST) sensor pod, FLIR targeting pod, ECM pods, flare and chaff pod, EO/IR sensor pods and EW suite. All these will require funding. The joint Sukhoi-HAL Fifth Generation Fighter Aircraft (FGFA), a derivative of Russian PAK-FA is facing delays and disputed cost escalations.

IHS Jane’s Defence Weekly estimates China’s budget at $192 billion or 1.77 per cent of GDP…

The six additional Boeing C-17 Globemaster III heavy-lift aircraft or equivalent platform expected by 2022 would require around $2.5 billion. Six additional Lockheed C-130-J-30 Super Hercules aircraft for Special Operations would cost over $1 billion. The IAF has three Beriev A-50 platform based EL/W-2090 Phalcon AEW&C. Two more are on order at rough cost of $275 million apiece. DRDO’s Embraer ERJ-145 aircraft-based AEW&C is under development. The IAF requires 24 of them. The IAF is committed to six Airbus A-330 aerial tankers. HAL and United Aircraft Corporation (UAC) of Russia will jointly develop and build an IL-214 design-based Multirole Transport Aircraft (MTA). Initial funding required is $300 million. The IAF plans to acquire 45 MTAs with initial service entry by 2018.

Airbus Defence and Space, and Tata Advanced Systems (TASL) have bagged a
Rs 12,000-crore contract to supply 56 C-295 aircraft to replace the IAF’s fleet of Avro aircraft. The IAF is committed to 72 HAL’s Intermediate Jet Trainer (IJT) HJT-36 Sitara which is far from ready. HAL is also trying to develop the turbo trainer HTT-40 with Honeywell Garrett TPE331-12B turboprop engine, and IAF requires 68 of these. Delays in these may force purchase of more Pilatus PC-7 Mk II and Hawk AJT.

In December 2014, twin-engine Kamov Ka-226T was selected to be the Light Utility Helicopter (LUH) for the three services and some other government departments. Kamov will set up a plant in India to manufacture these with an Indian partner. Around 400, likely to cost $7 million apiece, will be required. Attack helicopters Mi-25/Mi-35 are planned to be replaced by 22 Boeing AH-64E Apache attack helicopters through a $1.4 billion deal including air-to-ground and air-to-air weapons. In a deal priced at $897 million, 15 Boeing CH-47F Chinook helicopters are to be acquired for heavy lift duties. HAL is also developing the Light Combat Helicopter (LCH) for the IAF based on the basic Dhruv platform. Initially, 68 are required but additional ALH Dhruv helicopters are on order and the IAF plans to finally acquire more than 100 aircraft.

The People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) has around 2,000 combat aircraft of which nearly 600 are fourth generation…

S-125 Pechora and OSA-AK SAM-8 Surface-to-Air Missiles (SAM) are under replacement by indigenous Akash medium range system. The DRDO and Israeli Aerospace Industries (IAI) are also developing the Barak-8 SAM. The IAF has also ordered 18 Israeli SPYDER SAM units. DRDO, in a joint venture with Russia, is developing the air-launched version of the BrahMos cruise missile. The DRDO has also developed the nuclear-capable Nirbhay cruise missile with a range of 1,100 km. The DRDO is likely to develop the Maitri Low Level Quick Reaction Missile (LLQRM) in collaboration with MBDA. The Indigenous Astra Beyond Visual Range (BVR) air-to-air missile firing was demonstrated on Su-30 MKI during Exercise Iron-Fist 2016. The in-service indigenous Rohini and Reporter ground-based radars are planned to grow in numbers. After the induction of 19 Israeli Elta 2284 Medium Powered Radars (MPR), the IAF awaits DRDO’s ‘Anudhra’ MPR. The procurement of mountain radars is crucial for the Northern border.

The IAF has ordered the IAI Harop UCAVs. The DRDO is developing a Medium Altitude Long Endurance (MALE) UAV named ‘Rustam’ to replace/supplement the Heron UAVs in service. India is looking at more sophisticated large footprint systems such as the RQ-4 Global Hawks or Predators. The MoD has issued a global Request For Proposal (RFP) for procuring 95 mini-unmanned UAVs for the IAF and the Indian Navy. The IAF has sent out an RFI for an UCAV with low radar cross-section, high service ceiling, 925 km range and capability to carry precision-guided weapons in an internal weapons bay. The above wish list requires funding.

A Comparison of Global Defence Budgets

Beijing’s 2016 official defence budget announced on March 05 this year was 954 billion yuan ($146 billion). At 7.6 per cent increase over last year, it is the lowest increase in the last six years. China’s military expenditure accounts for around 1.35 per cent of the GDP. Her defence outlay is 3.8 times that of India. It is a well-known fact that China’s nearly another 40 per cent military activities like cyber, intelligence and dual use acquisitions are not reflected in her defence budget. IHS Jane’s Defence Weekly estimates China’s budget at $192 billion or 1.77 per cent of GDP. China is today the world’s third largest arms exporter.

To field even a defensive number of around 20 squadrons, the IAF combat strength must go up to 50 squadrons…

US defence budget for 2016-2017 is $534 billion (3.3 per cent of its GDP) as base budget and is 3.8 times China’s. Additionally, the US allocates $230 billion for oversees wars and other miscellaneous expenditure code-heads. Pakistan’s last defence budget in June 2015 was $7.7 billion. Pakistan too has a large hidden defence budget and traditionally separate funds are allocated for new acquisitions. Pakistan also has monetary support from Arab countries and is a recipient of huge military aid from USA as part of the Afghanistan coalition support fund. Recently, the USA announced the sale of additional F-16s, nine AH-1Z Viper Attack helicopters and weapons costing $952 million to Pakistan.

IAF – Two Front War Requirements

The Pakistan Air Force (PAF) operates nearly 450 combat aircraft essentially of three major types in 22 Squadrons. PAF has nearly 90 F-16s which are under upgrade with APG-69v9 radar and new avionics, and 36 FC-20 (Chinese J-10 variant) which will go up to 150 one day. PAF has inducted nearly 70 of the initial JF-17 Thunder indigenous fighters. One day, 300 are planned. PAF is talking to the Russians for Su-35 air-superiority fighters and China for J-31 stealth fighters. It has Saab-2000 Erieye and Chinese ZDK-03 AEW&C and IL-78 aerial refuelling aircraft. The People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) has around 2,000 combat aircraft of which nearly 600 are fourth generation plus and include the Su-27, Su-30MKK, J-10, J-11, J-16 and are soon to induct Stealth J-20 and J-31.

A US Air Force study estimates that one day the PLAAF will have over 1,000 modern fighters. It has indigenous heavy transport Y-20, stealth bomber H-18 and AEW&C KJ-2000 programs and is building a large number of helicopters and UAVs. The IAF currently has 33 combat squadrons nearly 30 of which will be required on the Western border for any semblance of air superiority. The IAF faces seven Chinese airbases (Kashgar, Hotan, Gongar, Pangta, Linchi, Hoping, and Gar Gunsa) in the TAR region and many more in the Chengdu Military Region, East of Myanmar. Even at full strength of 42 squadrons two decades from now, the IAF will be able to spare at best 12 squadrons against the PLAAF which would be woefully inadequate. To field even a defensive number of around 20 squadrons, the IAF combat strength must go up to 50 squadrons.

Build up of India’s military strength has not kept apace the external threat…

With the PAF likely to go up to 28 squadrons, requirement of the IAF could go up to 55 squadrons. Synchronisation of equipment and strategy between the PLAAF and the PAF would require the IAF to acquire advanced fighters, sophisticated support platforms and smart long-range weapons. Inter-theatre movement of troops and heavy equipment will require more heavy lift transport aircraft. Since battles will be more mountain-centric, inter-valley movement of heavy guns/equipment will require more heavy-lift helicopters. India will also require more aerial refuellers and AEW&C aircraft, plans for some of which are still in the pipeline.

Future Challenges and Opportunities

Build up of India’s military strength has not kept apace the external threat. For modernisation, technology-intensive IAF is the most affected because of faster obsolescence. At the current pace of finalising contracts and indigenous systems development, it may take over 20 years to reach the authorised 42 squadrons. To bridge the gap of nine squadrons and to cater for the phasing out of at least six more squadrons the next five years, would mean 14 new squadrons. With the LCA costing $40 million apiece, a mid-sized fighter aircraft would cost around $60 million. To acquire just 14 squadrons over next ten years, $15 billion will be required just for new combat aircraft. Weapons, ground infrastructure, spares and training will add up to much more.

The IAF also needs to invest significantly in UAVs, ground-based air defence radars and weapon systems. Most analysts have opined that India needs to allocate 2.5 per cent of GDP; up from current 1.65., for at least next ten years to bridge the gap to some respectable levels and catch up on modernisation. Will such funds be allocated? Nonetheless, India’s long-term budgetary prospects have improved and are expected to strengthen further over the next five years.

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IHS Jane’s analyst Craig Caffrey believes that the Indian defence budget is expected to reach $64.8 billion by 2020 with procurement expenditure expected to grow faster than overall spending. Increases in capital expenditure will be driven by extensive modernisation requirements including the IAF’s need to make good the deficient squadrons. With the geo-political situation being most complex, someday India will have to bite the defence budget bullet.

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The views expressed are of the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions or policies of the Indian Defence Review.

About the Author

Air Marshal Anil Chopra

Commanded a Mirage Squadron, two operational air bases and the IAF’s Flight Test Centre ASTE

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4 thoughts on “Defence Budget 2016: Hits and Misses for the IAF

  1. The defense officers idea about economics, the Govt officials and, the people like me are ientirely deffirent . Indias defense budgest should not be based on GDP. Unlike super powers India has no plan to attack any country. No body in the defense, do not know the number of equipment required to fight war against Pakistan and China. IAF does not know the number of fighter planes requird. They will tell 42 squadron . If we asked how they arrived this figure, no one will give a logical reply. The word squadron is vague because in a squadron there will be 6 to 18 sae type of fighter plane. To create a squdron only six numbers of planes requred. In 1971 war IAF had only 34 effective squadrons, each of which consisted of 12 planes . IAF had 16 air craft per combat squadron but the effective availability during the 1971 war was 12 per squadron. So in 1971 IAF had 408 effective planes. We were able to achieve air superiority in east and west. Now IAF has 535 planes. excluding Mig 21 and Mig- 27. All these planes can conduct sorties indipedently. with the help of AWACs or GPS. The other day i read an article LCA Tejas role for IAF – View from a simple sortie rate model”. This is a very good article , Using comuter programes defences forces should reduce the inventory. So budjet should be prepared on actuals and not on GDP.

      • Some of the supporters of Modi Govt. like me did not expect anything in return because God has given more than enough in the present life. One has to follow Bhagavad Gita. I have never worked in the Army , Airforce , and Navy . But I have very good experience in the engineering field. Since childhood. Bhagwan Sri Krishna showed the people by example more than 5000 years back that war can be fought by army commanders without taking up any weapon in the hand. All the modern-day warfare is being fought by the army commanders in the same method. I was very much interested to know different war strategy adopted by Bhagavan Shi. Krishna. in the great war of Kurukshetra. Not only that I used to read details of Yuhas used in the Mahabarath Yudh and later on details of war strategy adopted since second world war and equipment for the last six years. My only aim is to stop unwanted expenditure in the defense department. IAF will never get any Rafael plane. It will remain as a dream to the officers helped the UPA Govt to float a tender of 126 planes.

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