Indian Defence Review

Map depicting export of terrorism from Pak soil

Further, demographically, it is imperative to insulate our peoples against the canker of jihad and militant bigotry spawned by Pakistan, which can have disastrous consequences for us with our fabric of mixed ethnicity, diversity of caste and creed and an open society. Indeed, this danger far exceeds that of acts of terrorism from Pakistan and Bangladesh. So far, our minority communities have been patriotic and nationalistic and largely free of cancer of communal militancy, which we must build on to strengthen forces of unity further. In particular, there is urgent need to address the misgivings and difficulties of all our minorities specially Muslims, Sikhs and Christians, who have shown heartening solidarity and patriotism in the wake of the terror attack in Mumbai.

It is a truism that great crises and stark tragedy often engender great courage and a new and heightened sense of purpose. Hence, it is a golden opportunity for us to build on the prevailing good will, nationalistic fervor and spirit of unity arising out of this crisis. In the final analysis, a country is only as strong as its people and as strong as the unity of its people. Hence, we can only stand up to the enemy if there is total and unstinted support from all people including the minorities. In particular, we are going to need the whole hearted support of our muslim community and our communities in the border regions, for they can be our eyes and ears and sword arm in this fight. This will of course only succeed if we are able to bring about a genuine change of heart on the part of minorities, which needs first a sincere change of heart on the part of the majority community. This subject needs to be analysed in great depth and tackled systematically rather than by piece-meal and ad-hoc measures such as reservations, periodic doles and worse of all “Vote Bank” politics.

The key is the economic upliftment of poorer sections and minorities which in turn depends on access to quality education. We have to supplant the pernicious doctrinaire Madrassa education by an enlightened modern English language based education.

At the same time, India needs to put its own house in order, curb irresponsible politicization and find an answer to the ill effects of “coalition politics” so as to ensure effective governance. In short, the need is to build walls of protection to sanitise our people and our body politic against ill winds arising out of Pakistan with its poison of radical islam, ala, The Great Wall of China which was built to keep the marauding barbarians at bay. The modern version will not be a wall of brick and mortar but the analogy is not very wide of the mark. Now it will be a network of fences beefed up by electronic surveillance devices. The air dimension will be taken care of by effective radar surveillance system. All this must have the backing of a first rate and fully integrated intelligence network.

A whole lot of woolly thinking and pseudo intellectual ideas are being trotted out in the media, setting out many excuses and alibis for India not to take any precipitate action. A visiting dignatory has warned us against ‘unintended consequences’. VIPs from many countries have come to wipe our tears and “show solidarity and concern” but the burden of all advice seems to be for restraint and patience. There are also efforts to assuage our grief by minimal and face saving type of remedial action. Unfortunately there seems to be no real effort on the part of super powers to rein in Pakistan.

Arguably, the Pak Monster is a creation of super powers who have been persistently pumping in vast resources of arms and funds. We are being counselled that any action on our part will incite a military coup in Pakistan which will make matters worse for us and which will harm the cause of democracy, whereas the reality is that we have had wars alike with civilian (democratic) Pakistan and military dictatorships. Besides, even now the military is in de facto control except that now it has the convenient semblance and façade of an elected civil government, giving them greater manoeuvrability.

Another bogey is that even a threatening gesture by India will force Pakistan to pull out forces from their Northwest for redeployment against us, thereby adversely affecting American war in Afghanistan. Fact of the matter is that the Pak military effort on Wazirstan-Afghan border is but minimally productive and half-hearted because Pak military and the ISI are stated to be firmly of the view that total destruction of Taliban will not be in Pak interest in the long run. Be that as it may.The reality is that US has the power to impact the Afghanistan situation with or without Pak help. Indeed they will have a freeer hand for unfettered use of drone-directed missiles, and freedom of action to operate within Pak territory. Hence it is in the interests of Pakistan to keep a military presence or a watching brief in that region. There is often suspicion that Pak military/ISI leak out advance warning of impending operations.

Mountains of evidence suggests that Pak is cleverly playing both sides. In any case USA has enough leverage to twist the Pakistani tail, who have for instance never given up hope that at some point of time, Americans will force India to cede Kashmir to them. Besides, Pakistan is beholden to USA for doles and armaments which now amounts to two billion dollars per year, placing the country at par with Israel and Egypt. In the present context they also depend upon USA and its allies to keep India quiescent in the face of all depredations. Pak has perhaps some relevance pertaining to the security of long supply line for US-NATO forces operating in Afghanistan, but even in this respect it has been seen to be less than effective. In reality, the problem is symptomatic of the game of ‘pressure-counter pressure’ being played between Pak and US. Besides, it again shows that Pak military and ISI are in total control in Pakistan. In any case USA has enough logistic capability to sustain operations in Afghanistan even in the teeth of Pak opposition, should it come to that. Besides, they are already actively developing alternative routes of supply.

In conclusion, what can one forecast about Pakistan? It has always been difficult to read Pakistan or to know which element is really in control at any point of time because the country has always been a volatile and complex mix of religious fanaticism, military dominance, violence, venal politics and tribalism. The present scenario is even more murky and uncertain. Today,the country is an unholy mess of violence, corruption and impending economic collapse. Currently, there are at least four discernable centers of power: the military (bloated with massive infusion of arms and money from USA and China); the ever intriguing ISI; multitude of jihadis/Taliban/ Al-Quaida/LeT/JeM, etc bristling with arms and flush with funds; and bringing up the rear, the corrupt and faction riven Zardari government. Inter-se groupings and power equations are in a state of continuous flux but there is little doubt that , as always, the military–ISI combine continues to be the current top dog.

Further, the sole common bond between all groups is: hatred towards India, India bashing and allied or central to that, burning desire for ‘liberation of Kashmir’ and lately, ‘liberation of Indian muslims from the Hindu Raj’. In short, a powder-keg and a seething, rolling cauldron of hate, ready to boil over or implode. It is possible that the country may regress into total Talibanism, with free ranging armed groups under different warlords bent on pillage and loot, chiefly across the Indian border. However, it is more likely that USA and China will not allow Pak to go under—witness the recent post-haste IMF aid package of 7.6 billion dollars with no strings attached. USA calls Pakistan “a valuable ally” and to China, it is “a natural ally”. They are a leader of the Islamic world and a favourite of both Sunni Arabs and Shia Iran alike—a truly remarkable feat of foreign policy and nimble foot-work by Pakistan, which our foreign service mandarins may well ponder over and try to emulate.

In sum, India is facing a dangerous adversary and an enemy that we have never been able to match, making it imperative for us to insulate and protect ourself against the fall-out of Pak blow up or against continuing raids and attacks from that quarter which are most likely to escalate in frequency and ferocity. The imperatives for us are: “Fortress India”, including breaking of all contacts; ensuring effective defence and sealing of borders; build up of adequate defensive capability; create capacity for surgical strikes, and wherewithal to withstand a full scale war, including nuclear attack or nuclear blackmail. We must protect our minorities from Pak machinations so that we can forge a united and motivated India. Above all, we must be steadfast in our resolve and be clear about the realities of the situation and not be deflected by half-measures and self-serving advice from our global “sympathizers and friends”.