Indian Defence Review

Pakistan was created on religious lines in 1947 by partitioning of India. Today it stands at the cross roads even after 67 years of its creation completely confused and chaotic.

One side is the Pakistani nation while on the other are sub nationalists steadfast on regional and ideological lines obscuring Pakistan which is nowhere to be seen.

The Pakistan’s establishment has defined the nation’s core strategic interests which flow out of an imaginary threat emanating from India. Since the Zia-Ul-Haque’s era, Pakistanis have invested heavily in non-state actors in countering India and securing their interests in Afghanistan.

It started in the garb of fighting the Soviets in Afghanistan, all supported by the Americans. Use of these elements for achieving what their army could not in a direct confrontation is their ‘Special Idea’.

A heavily politicized army that continues to live in self-denial, ever willing to throw down the gauntlet against India despite repeated reversals is what characterizes the idea of Pakistan.

Ideological division of this over Islamised society on the lines of Sia, Sunni, tribal affinities, Ahmadiyas, Deobandis, Barrelvi and the Wahabis has created many fault lines, this is now pulling that country apart.

In pursuit of their domestic, political and trans-border strategic agenda, the Pak establishment has at convenience helped in raising these armed groups and armies of various tribes and theological groups.

Heavy funds pour in from the Sheiks living in oil rich countries of the Middle East propelling these organisations perusing different paths of Islam in spreading the ideology.

These organisations not only run madrasas and carry out charity work; they also support armies of terrorists funded by Arab money and the flourishing drug trade.

These madrasas are thus the epicentres around which local societies have webbed. Apart from imparting religious education and guidance, they play a major role in providing security and economic opportunities to their followers.

Many a times, Ideological differences and competition to expand their areas of influence leads to armed clashes. Largely non existent administration is another reason of many states within a state and they go unchallenged in absence of Pakistan.

Army and ISI under the bogie of “Islam under threat” have regularly played up these groups against the political parties, sub national movements and the neighbouring countries for decades now.

A country where the national priority has always been on building stronger armed forces has left health and education at the lowest ebb of planning.

The demographic dividend by some estimate project 40 percent of the country’s population between the age group of 19 to 25 years.

Out of this population 80 percent never goes through the formal education. Instead get indoctrinated in various religious seminaries.

These are therefore the ideal recruitment catchments for terrorist outfits.

As per SATP, Pakistan has 12 domestic organisations and 32 trans-national terrorist organisations. All these terrorist organisations have had the support of ISI at one time or the other.

Out of these who acquiesce with domestic and strategic agenda laid down by the army are categorised as ‘Good’ while those not complying are termed as “Bad”.

Therik-e-Talliban (TTP) are the bad terrorists while the Afghan Taliban, Haquani network, Lashkar-e-tayiba and Jamat-Ul-Dawa are the good ones.

Pakistan Army facing the blowback of Zarb-e-Azab, TTP attacked Army Public School at Peshawar in revenge killing 132 small children on the Dec 16, 2014.

Pakistan is probably the only democratic country that has used its armed forces with tanks, artillery, helicopter gunships and fighter jets against their very own civilian population.

They killed in thousands in East Pakistan leading to creation of Bangladesh. To supress sub nationalist voices they have used all their might in Sindh, Baluchistan in the past.

And now in Wajiristan and Khyber Paktunwa displacing lakhs and lakhs out of their homes for counter insurgency has further polarised the society.

Today Pakistani society is highly radicalised and militarised. A country having nuclear arsenal send jitters at the thought of terrorists controlling these deadly assets.

Americans pulling out of Afghanistan leaving Afghanistan at the mercy of Pakistan would not be construed as smart geopolitics.

A country that nurtures a dream of wresting control of so called strategic space in Afghanistan makes the region highly volatile.

Pakistan Chief of Army Staff, General Raheel Sharif’s recent visit to USA saw the waxed ecstatic and assurances of military aid from the Americans. The strategic relevance of Pakistan leaves Uncle Sam with no other option other than buying guarantees of peace in Afghanistan through the aid.

And all this after the pentagon’s report suggesting Pakistani role on supporting terrorism as a state policy should not shock many.

In the recent past many observers have articulated a view of balkanised Pakistan as a lasting solution to security problems confronting the South Asian region. There have been voices raised over the economic and military aid to Pakistan and many have constantly demanded a blanket ban.

These demands may have worked a decade ago in tail twisting Pak Army on to the right track but now it’s too late, on the contrary detrimental. Under present circumstances if Pakistan caught up in a civil war, who can predict what would be the end state after her break up?

The fall out on India should be a cause of worry to all of us. A known enemy is always better than the unknown. It will be in everyone’s interest that the US continues to aid and support the army or else the last bastion will soon fall to the Taliban.

The visual of Nawaz Sharif and Imran Khan sharing the dais after Peshawar incident definitely raises a hope but it needs to be seen how it translates into action. Imran Khan also known as Taliban Khan has not named Taliban specifically for the dastardly attack on the school kids despite TTP claiming responsibility.

Hafez Sayed has in turn blamed India for this tragedy. Like them there are many within the political setup, ulema, military and the establishment who sympathise with these terrorists.  A society deeply radicalised over decades of indoctrination is a dangerous malaise.

Those raised to counter the Soviet intervention in Afghanistan in late seventies and also to further their territorial desires in Kashmir are now formed up against Pakistan itself, threatening the country’s very existence.

A sharp U-turn should not be expected from the Pakistan army. Conflicting strategic interests are so deep seated within that organisation that there are actually no options left.

The fast diminishing strength of moderate Generals need to kill the ideology before the ideology kills them.