The China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), Part of Chinese larger flagship project, One Belt One Road (OBOR) is termed as a ‘game changer’ and has dominated the imagination of strategic experts across the globe and more so in India and Pakistan.
Despite understanding the risks involved, China has gone ahead with the project as China intends to address multiple issues by playing the CPEC card.
CPEC has huge economic and strategic implications especially on triangular geopolitical equations between China, Pakistan and India. The grand CPEC project is bold geo economic initiative by China which has the potential to alter the strategic environment.
Let’s be clear that CPEC is much more than just economics. The Indian government has expressed its deep reservations on the issue due to its territorial and strategic interests. However there are certain sections amongst intellectuals and leaders who advocate that India should join the CPEC and derive the payoff that CPEC offers.
CPEC is an apt example of symbiotic project which if completed successfully will provide China the access to Arabian Sea via Gwadar port and is also likely to bring development to Pakistan. The experts largely agree that on completion of CPEC, Chinese presence in Indian Ocean will undermine India’s clout and the stronger and wealthier Pakistan will not be good for India.
CPEC project is fraught with risks as the route of CPEC passes via volatile and unstable region of Kashgar in Xinjiang (part of China’s Uighur Autonomous Region), Gilgit-Baltistan, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Baluchistan which are infested with home grown insurgency therefore viability and feasibility of the project remains doubtful.
Despite understanding the risks involved, China has gone ahead with the project as China intends to address multiple issues by playing the CPEC card. One it tries to access the deep sea port of Gwadar in Arabian sea for its oil import and thereby resolve its Malacca dilemma, two, it tries to usher in development in the least developed area of Xinjiang and thereby managing long standing insurgency amongst Uyghur’s. Three, it helps in salvaging the collapsing economy of its proxy Pakistan and fourth it indicates to the world of its growing clout.
Until now, China has been ‘quite and neutral’ on the issue of Jammu & Kashmir but CPEC might change its viewpoint given its economic stake in CPEC.
Most of the analysts in India are apprehensive about the aspects related with CPEC but it does offer India a unique opportunity. There remains an opportunity of disrupting the much hyped project of two traditional adversaries.
Let’s view CPEC in this way. CPEC is an issue having huge ‘strategic content’ and will surely challenge India’s interest when operationalised fully. Until now, China has been ‘quite and neutral’ on the issue of Jammu & Kashmir but CPEC might change its viewpoint given its economic stake in CPEC.
India need to understand certain issues related to CPEC and makes the optimum use of the various factors involved for achieving its long term goal.
There are certain commonalities in the region via which CPEC traverses. All these region of Xinjiang, Gilgit-Baltistan, and Baluchistan contains large swath of territory. They are rich in mineral resources, and are witnessing a deep rooted insurgency. Also there has been considerable effort by the state to alter the demography of these areas .There is a sense of alienation amongst the populace due to high handedness by the state machinery. The local populace are complaining against the state administration and are demanding autonomy or even independence. The media activities are severely restricted and are largely under state control.
In Pakistan, there is diverse opinion on CPEC amongst provinces on the route options and the share of revenue. The media in Pakistan is projecting it as a game changer but locals are asking game changer for whom? There is no doubt that CPEC brings largest ever FDI into Pakistan but economists are apprehensive about the debt trap it might create for the government.
Gilgit-Baltistan provides India the opportunity to raise its concern against CPEC on diplomatic front and Baluchistan is an opportunity to make CPEC “un-implementable”.
CPEC due to its alignment is likely to give maximum payoff to the state of its Punjab province for which other province is calling CPEC as the ‘China Punjab Economic Corridor’.
India needs to exploit on the common apprehensions of the section of people in Pakistan on CPEC being another East India Company.
India must view the issue of Baluchistan and its popular insurgency movement from the prism of its strategic interest. In fact time is there to learn from our neighbours who incited certain issues to suit their long term goal.
As success of CPEC is dependent on the internal security situation in Pakistan, India needs to exploit the deep rooted popular sentiments of the locals against Pakistan and China in the region to stall the progress of CPEC. India should support and unite the various ethnic groups dissenting against state and help them air their views on international platform.
Currently Gilgit-Baltistan provides India the opportunity to raise its concern against CPEC on diplomatic front and Baluchistan is an opportunity to make CPEC “un-implementable”. The failure of CPEC would amount to a great setback for both China and Pakistan.
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SUPER DUPER LIKE…… RIGHT ON THE MONEY….. AS ALWAYS
Hi, just read your article on CPEC and how India ‘s rivals can benefit from it. Now I am still confused on this point, by undermining CPEC what india is set to achieve? Whereas if India chooses to be part of CPEC, it will benefit not only the suppressed regions of Jammu and Kashmir but also strengthen Indian economy. India is currently following methodologies of NSA mr Doval, who has strong offensive approach. Pakistan has burnt hands in Afghan war by playing proxy to USA. Till date, they are still struggling to put lid on terrorism which sprouted from this conflicts. India has unique opportunity, either to learn from mistakes of its neighbor OR indulge itself In proxy war by siding and aiding ethnic groups which oppose CPEC. Time will tell if this project fails or succeed, but the role india will play today will determine its future.
WELL SAID. SINCE BOTH CHINA AND PAK NOT ACCOMODATIVE OF OUR PROTEST, WE HAVE NO OTHER WAY THAN TO SPOIL THEIR APPLE CART.
The author has rightly brought out the direction towards which the government should head forward.Very well articulated article giving thorough insight of the subject matter & way forward.
The author of the article above says exactly what I expect an Indian to say about the CPEC, the fact is that CPEC is a game changer for not only Pakistan and China but a large number of other countries in the region and beyond.
Pakistan is going to benefit through creation of hundreds of thousands of jobs, great opportunities for the business community, elevating power shortages, help in building a strong and robust economy, connectivity of different regions through good road and railway connections, development of Baluchistan and northern regions of the country, internationalise the Kashmir Issue. Expand our influence in the Arabian gulf and the Indian Ocean in partnership with China.
Pakistan and China would like India to be part of this great opportunity, but unfortunately India is intent on trying to destroy it by funding terrorism in Pakistan. If India does not change it’s course of action then Pakistan and China would be forced to fund various regions of India in their desire to breakaway from the union.
His writing skills are Good but being an Indian analyst he can only write what he wrote… If Pakistan is going to be prosperious why it’s causing stomatchache to you stupids…
Being a write you must write what is right…. But you drinker pee can not write an unbiased analysis….
Very well written article .
The article shows the depth and command of the writer on the subject .
My wishes to the the writer for his future endeavors