Indian Defence Review

In the aftermath of Second World War two NATO and Warsaw Pact ideological alliances emerged each asserting for global dominance and emerged as rival security blocs. The initial motive of NATO was to ‘keep the Soviets away, Germans down and Americans in’. The objective continues to be to same except that now Germany is part of the alliance. The Soviets wanted to’ keep their part of Europe and not let the Americans take it’ as the essential tenet of Warsaw Pact. Therefore, both the alliances had strains of confrontation inherent in their concept and structures. What is happening in Ukrainian theatre is a carryover legacy of 50’s, albeit with centrality of geo politics of oil and gas as the prime factor.

The Cold War resulting from the collapse of Soviet Union in 90s paved way for the western block to expand NATO right up to Russian periphery creating a threat in being. At the same time, the European dependence on Russian energy and concomitant economic buoyancy of Russia seems to have unsettled the US much beyond her liking. The pattern of political conduct of the western block point towards their objective to prevent Russia to re emerge as a super power. This in turn has created insecurity in the Russian political psyche with a feel of entrapment as the way events have been unfolding.

What seems to have rattled Russia the most is US insistence on not to commission the Nord Steam 2 pipeline which is already complete with due agreement with the Germany. Besides this, the US Inch as been subverting Ukrainian population for quite some time with an objective to create anti Russia feelings. It, obviously, is not acceptable to Russia being essential to her economic interests and intended national ambitions.

From Russian perspective, Ukraine is not only a frontline state for security, it also provides access to strategically important Mediterranean sea, a junction point of three continents. Russia, accordingly, opted for assertive political doctrine by annexation of Crimea in 2014 and military intervention in Syria in 2015 in her national interests. Ukraine, therefore, has become central to power play between the NATO and Russia by default. In consequence, the second cold war started on the quiet almost a decade back with Russia challenging the US dominance across multiple theatres.

Russia, in order to shape the political conduct of Ukraine, followed coercive diplomacy to prompt her not to join NATO alliance. The US and her allies, on other hand, encouraged Ukraine to resist arm twisting by the Russia as a sovereign country. They also gave impression that they would support Ukraine in case Russia embarks upon military adventure. Russia, looking at the defiant attitude of Ukraine, chose to launch a punitive military campaign on 24Feb 2022. It has been more than seven weeks into military confrontation between Russia and Ukraine with no conflict termination in sight as yet.

The Ukraine seems to have been left to fight on their own sans any direct military intervention by the NATO, a perception created by them all this time. Having started this war, neither US knows how to end it, nor Russia knows how to pull back from the mess created by them. Ukraine in any case is fighting with diminishing political returns from the day one. The war is continuing as there is political intransigence amongst all the stake holders with no shift in their professed narratives so far.

The most prominent change in aftermath of the war would be emergence of a multi polar world with China and Russia sharing the pie alongside the US. Russia has emerged from back waters and cannot be ignored anymore as she has demonstrated her political will to get into military confrontation, if the situation so demands. China on other hand has adequate economic prowess, besides no hesitation in using force for achieving their political purposes. Both the countries have also shown outright defiance to the sole super power US and international norms in their political conduct.

One of the geo political fallout of Ukraine crisis is the possibility of a collusive threat to US by both Russia and China as they have ideological political convergence. There are adequate signs of such an axis given the unambiguous political support to Russia by China in their Ukrainian campaign. Therefore, one has to look at the strategic hydraulics in its entirety as the events are unfolding. Indeed it is a churning moment with potential of significant realignments that may come about.

It is certain that this war would provide opportunity to China to enhance her economic expansion as world at large is expected to be in a negative economic trend. There are also predictions of American dollar losing its primacy as economic sanctions would infuse a multiple currency regime especially for bilateral trade transactions. In that, China being the largest trading nation may be benefitted as Yuan may acquire high share in the international fiscal system.

Accordingly, speculations are rife that China may become senior partner in China- Russia axis with enhanced buoyancy in her national power . Whereas, Russia, an erstwhile super power with largest nuclear arsenal and technological credentials, may not be amenable to such an equation. Therefore, it may become a reason of uneasy relationship between them beyond present bonhomie once the dust settles down.

A very significant political issue that has drawn attention is reluctance of US and her allies to join the conflict directly due to fear of initiating third world war. The nuclear deterrence is also one of the major factors that has worked to avert such a catastrophic situation. The aim of Western world appears to be limited to contain Russia and thwart its re emerge as a super power and in doing so Ukraine is not important enough to cross the red line. It also suggests that the western world may not pick up direct confrontation against strong military powers unlike history of their interventions and regime changes in weak nations.

Taking a cue from such a mindset, China and Russia are expected to be bolder in their political assertions in times to come. Therefore, cognitive conflict is expected to continue on varied geo political power play issues for quite some time. As a fallout of new political synthesis , the regional powers would also see realignments based on their strategic interests and political aspirations. Overall there may be a tectonic shift in the established world order with politico-economic connotations impacting most of the nations.

It is widely perceived that China may take advantage the current situation and embark upon military action against Taiwan. Whereas, in case of Taiwan the invasion has to be launched across sea space unlike Russian invasion on common land borders. The build up of heavy forces sans any surprise would be difficult against Taiwanese coastal defences prepared over period of time. Taiwan enjoys support of US and that would be a big deterrence for China to initiate military campaign against them. Moreover, looking at success of Ukrainian resistance in built up areas, China may like to revisit her options on Taiwan.

The Russia- Ukraine conflict has shifted the focus of the US to European theatre as there is a simmering conflict of interests with her NATO allies. The US sanctions call for severing trade links by EU allies with Russia, whereas their economic interests lie in continuation of Russian gas supply. Although, NATO seems to be united at political level in their support to Ukraine, there are signs that this convergence may not be sustained in longer run. Few NATO members have already conveyed their intent to continue importing Russian energy; others have reduced the quantities in the interim.

It gives rise to questions on the relevance of NATO in contemporary times. Creation of a new Europe specific security structure with Russia on board to provide mutual security alongside economic synergies may be an option. One should not forget that Russia was keen to join NATO in early 50s to facilitate stability which was not agreed to that time. The war may prompt a review of the alliance as a pragmatic way to ensure political stability and economic well being. The US role in such a configuration would certainly reduce. Can European nations do without US patronage is something they have to decide?

The voting pattern in the UN on Ukrainian crisis has given rise to a hypothesis of China-Russia- India axis as they have been perceived to have some political convergence. While China has been supporting Russia openly, India on other hand has been observing informed neutrality, thereby avoiding taking sides. Moreover, looking at history of Chinese brinkmanship against India, it is not possible to give credence to such a political equation.

Taking a cue from Ukrainian episode, there is a possibility of few nations that were part of erstwhile Soviet Union reverting to Russian camp, or declare political neutrality. The Russia is also known to have threatened Finland and Sweden of dire consequences if they join NATO. Russian objective appears to extend her turf in Eastern Europe for her defence, besides existing foot prints in Central and part of West Asia. Russia is keen to seek access to warm waters of Indian Ocean through Iran and/or Pakistan, an ambition since Czarist era. This factor when hyphenated with Chinese presence in IOR would have inimical connotations on US scheme in Indo-Pacific. India would be impacted in a multiple ways if such a change takes place.

The Ukraine crisis has already impacted on response of energy rich nations of West Asia wherein they were reported to be reluctant to follow US dictates for supply energy to European nations. The energy suppliers are known to be in touch with their big customers like China to conduct business in their local currencies instead of US dollars. US is seen as a competitor now, and with that the energy business seems to be shifting to a open market regime. Energy being an important economic factor, any structural changes in its management would impact the common men across the world. India, being a net importer of oil and gas, is already feeling the side effects of the ongoing war. The matter may get further complicated due to its political sensitivities of varied complexities.

The Russia-Ukraine war has created a new strategic fulcrum that has potential to change the established world order and economic synergies. It is a war by proxies that may turn out to be a war with no end. Its time for review the narratives in right earnest to stop the hostilities lest it spirals out into a third world war. Therefore, it warrants review of the methodology of dealing with the situation in order to de escalate the ante and create space for diplomacy to resolve the crisis. Earlier it happens, better it would be for the world peace.