Indian Defence Review

Discarding Bhutan’s objections, when Chinese unilaterally started constructing a Class 40 road towards Bhutan Army’s camp in Zompelri on 16 Jun in Doklam area, thereby bringing the Tri Junction Point of Bhutan, Sikkim and Tibet border 7.5 kms further down South and posing a direct strategic threat to India’s Siliguri Corridor connecting main land India with NE States, they never expected India to intervene. Having intervened under India-Bhutan treaty, now it is not possible for India to withdraw as it will be a strategic disaster.

Doklam incident is significantly different from the previous border disputes with China namely Despang in Ladakh in 2013, Chumar in Ladakh in 2014 and Demchok in Ladakh in 2016. In all these incidents the Chinese troops which came into Indian Territory went back after some time as a result of diplomacy and mutual agreement. It needs to be remembered that while China has maritime border disputes with all its neighbours numbering 14 countries, it has land border disputes only with India and Bhutan. This dispute is mainly created by China who refuses to accept the McMahon line as boundary and is claiming 40000 sq Kms of Indian territory in Aksai Chin and whole of Arunachal Pradesh. In Doklam standoff China is demanding Indian troops to withdraw first before any talks can begin.

First and foremost we must understand that there has been a dramatic change in the methodology of conduct of foreign policy by China. Till now China was following the Deng Xiaoping’s 24 Character Strategy of 1992. This strategy said “Observe calmly; secure our position; cope with affairs; hide our capacities and bide our time; be good at maintaining low profile; and never claim leadership’. After arrival of new Chinese president Xi Xinping this policy and this era is finally over. Now Chinese policy has become muscular especially after its military reforms. Now it wants ‘Fen Fa You Wei’ that is striving for Achievement.

The current situation is that India has moved its two mountain divisions to take their forward positions in North and East Sikkim with a third mountain Div in reserve. In Doklam sector Indian troops have pitched their tents barely 100 meters from Chinese, sending clear message to China that they will not go back until Chinese Army vacates Bhutanese territory. China’s repeated theatrics and rhetoric’s through their state-owned media and foreign office have virtually had no effect on India.

As for possibility of war, china fully knows that 80% of the China-India border is located in inhospitable terrain on Himalayas. This area can only be negotiated through 62 passes. Out of these 62 passes 61 are held by us. So China will buy very heavy casualties if it attempts a military showdown. Also nowadays, war has an economical dimension too. China has serious border disputes with at least 14 nations. A war over border dispute will cause serious impact on China’s already slowing down economy. So China, despite the rhetoric, is not going to start a skirmish (forget about a war) with India in any of the border fronts including the presently volatile Doklam sector.

So the question comes to fore why did china acquire this aggressive stance at this juncture? There are number of reasons: Firstly, this time when China decided to make a class 40 road linking Doklam plateau with the Tri junction point of the borders of India, china and Bhutan, its main aim was to drive a wedge between the relations of India and Bhutan. Doklam is a Bhutanese area which China claims as its own. India has a treaty with Bhutan to protect Bhutan from any external threat. With their earlier experience with India of 2013 and its softly policy, china was very sure India will chicken out in Doklam and leave Bhutan to its fate. Another reason why China felt India will not intervene was the fact that despite Bhutan not having diplomatic relations with China both countries have been having bilateral talks on border dispute. Off late Bhutan was showing a tendency of keeping equal distance from India and China. Fact that while China started constructing road on 16 Jun Bhutan only objected two weeks later on 29 June is case in point.

Second. There’s disunity in the ruling Communist Party. Although Xi Jinping is said to be the supreme leader of China (only next to Mao in history), he is systematically being opposed by the Shanghai faction loyal to Jiang Zemin and Beijing faction loyal to Hu Jintao. Both these factions are indirectly in opposition to Xi Jinping due to the latter’s strict anti-corruption policy which had resulted in suspension of many veteran communist leaders from the party with some even being jailed. The number of veterans dissenting against Xi Jinping is very large. Although Xi has silenced many other commoners, the Shanghai and Beijing factions appear to be too strong and well equipped with issues that go against Xi Jinping.

Also, at the moment, the Chinese economy is on a slowdown and is not expected to recover in the near future. Chinese Central Bank is piled up with debts and could face immense stress in the coming days. Various global ratings have exposed China’s claims of being an economic superpower. There is growing distrust of investors in the Chinese economy. Furthermore, North Korea has already caused a lot of embarrassment to the Chinese, which has also led to increased activity of the United States in South China Sea.

The One Road, One Belt project failed to garner support from the world, including India’s non-participation in what was being dubbed as China’s most ambitious project till date. There are also reports that Chinese investors have all but lost interest in the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). Owing to these problems both Shanghai and Beijing factions are flexing their muscles, posing a threat to Xi.

With this background it has been reported in some quarters that Xi Xinping wants the Doklam stand-off to further boil so that he could use it to his advantage in the upcoming 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China (most likely to be held in early November). This border dispute could help Jinping in neutralising his opponents. So apparently, the Doklam stand-off would continue till November 2017. Thereafter would be a graceful move back by China to restore peace and normalcy at the border.

All said and done India must take a lesson from this episode. With the changed foreign policy of China we in India now must change our mind set and make China as our enemy number one instead of Pakistan.

We must go all out to plug gaps in our military preparations so that we are always ready for any future conflict with China. Yes it is good to have friends like US, Japan and European countries who are not happy with the rise of China but in final analysis it is we who will have to defend our mother land. So we should be prepared at all times. We must also start making common cause With Japan, Vietnam, Taiwan and South Korea on disputes with China.

This standoff has resulted in Chinese media and Chinese Foreign Office threatening India in very clear terms for days together. This brings about what Chinese Top hierarchy thinks about India because unlike India Chinese media is fully controlled media under Communist Party. Taking these threats lightly will be great folly on India’s part.