Geopolitics

China's 'New Cold War' puts democracies in danger
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Issue Vol 25.4 Oct-Dec 2010 | Date : 06 Jul , 2013

PM meeting with President of China Hu Jintao in New Delhi

The spread of two authoritarian streams, Chinese communism and the Islamic fundamentalism, in combination or otherwise, threaten the survival of democracies in Asia.

First, Beijing deftly sucked in most of the democracies in its economic orbit by making China a very cheap manufacturing destination of the world. This simultaneously created gigantic hard currency reserves and vast political influence. Second, from the inflow of foreign direct investments, a modern lethal military machine was forged. Third, Beijing skillfully invested in dictatorial or Islamic fundamentalist regimes in Asia like North Korea, Pakistan, and Myanmar.

Accretion of extraordinary power allows China to escape unscathed, bringing to an end, the phase of ‘Peaceful rise of China!’

On one hand, this boosts Pakistan and North Korea’s capability to tie down democracies like India, South Korea and Japan without the necessity of China being involved overtly. On the other, by transferring sensitive technologies to these countries, China deflects the attention of major powers from itself and conveniently shifts the debate to the rogue nations clandestinely supported by it. Thus the energies and resources of the other big powers are consumed handling the fall out in Pakistan, Myanmar, Iran and North Korea.

Accretion of extraordinary power allows China to escape unscathed, bringing to an end, the phase of ‘Peaceful rise of China’! The ongoing coercive diplomacy against Japan marks the beginning of ‘Rise of the expansionist China.’

The Islamic fundamentalists and other dictatorial regimes like the military junta of Myanmar by themselves do not constitute dire threat to democracies in Asia as they individually lack capabilities.

However, to gain supremacy in Asia, extreme ideologies supported by Chinese machinations constitute a dangerous tool that can cause mayhem.

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To dominate Asia, China will ensure that Islamic regimes come under the Chinese tutelage. Their rigid philosophies have more in common with each other than with the democracies. This helps Beijing in two ways. First, it keeps the Islamic fundamentalists in check and prevents insurrection in Sinkiang inhabited by a large Muslim population.

Second, by way of investment, aid and transfer of sensitive technology, Beijing uses the ‘barbarians’, i.e., Islamic fundamentalists in Pakistan and Afghanistan, Maoists in Nepal or authoritarian regime in North Korea to tie up in knots democracies like India, Japan, South Korea or America and its allies within Asia.

These dark forces are an extension of the Chinese war machine to ensure that democracies become dysfunctional and ultimately redundant.

These dark forces are an extension of the Chinese war machine to ensure that democracies become dysfunctional and ultimately redundant.

If the multi-cultural democratic Indian role model succeeds in Asia, the single party Chinese model is bound to fail.

Pakistan is a classic example, which China treats as its colony. Beijing worries that its dreams to reach Gwadar port by land will come to a naught, if Pakistan splinters. This is the singular reason for the Chinese military to be inducted into Pakistan Occupied Kashmir, lest this area, which includes Gilgit and Baltistan, rejoin the Indian state of J&K.

Similarly, if North Korea unites with South Korea, China will feel threatened by the formidable new power equation in its vicinity.

Washington’s attempts to woo Islamabad away from Beijing will not succeed as both nurture an anti-America and anti-India orientation.

The falling apart of Pakistan or uniting of the Koreas, therefore, will certainly curtail Chinese ambitions and enhance footprints of the democracies in Asia.

A win-win for democracies of all hues!

The battle in Asia in many ways, therefore, is poised between the forces of darkness led by China, and the light of freedom and hope being nurtured by the democracies.

If the groups or nations with extreme philosophies led by China succeed, the economic powerhouse of the world in the twenty-first century, i.e., Asia will be under the control of authoritarian regimes. The Western influences led by America’s global interests will be obliterated. Islamization of Europe will become a certainty. North America will feel the heat. India, the softest target, of course, will get the first jolt.

The battle in Asia in many ways, therefore, is poised between the forces of darkness led by China, and the light of freedom and hope being nurtured by the democracies.

To contend with the American power, Beijing desires a multi-polar world, but in Asia it is determined to achieve China-centric unipolarity.

What should be India’s game plan?

India can be to Asia what America is to the world- a symbol of hope, freedom, justice and liberty.

First, India must attract massive inflow of foreign direct investment by creating the requisite business environment. The red tape that is retarding India’s economic growth should be immediately dispensed with. It is essential we emerge as the leading alternate manufacturing and technology research hub in Asia. Those who bring in the sunrise technologies in joint ventures must be rewarded and encouraged.

The cutting edge technological research requires huge investments, young skilled demographic profile and friendly business environment, where all partners profit in a variety of ways. India boasts of potential to lead Asia in all these parameters.

Keeping Indian societal characteristics in view, American economic model with minor modifications incorporating some of the social welfare features of Europe will be a huge success that can propel India to the top.

Less government and more governance will lead to creation of unprecedented wealth.

Second, New Delhi so far has grossly underutilized the potent geo-economic card held in the Indian arsenal. For example there is ban by the West in transfer of sensitive technologies to China. Many of such technologies can be transferred to India, if the FDI in defense sector is increased to 49 percent from the present unviable 26 percent! Further, to realize the full potential, if defense sector is opened to the private sector, India can be fairly self-sufficient in defense equipment in the next ten years.

Importantly, when other democracies are allowed substantial stakes in the Indian economy, which is mutually beneficial, there will be an automatic increase in New Delhi’s international clout. Therefore, New Delhi must heal these self-inflicted wounds borne out of myopic policies.

Twenty-first Century will witness a robust partnership between India and the United States due to the extraordinary synergy of purpose.

Today India’s appetite and the resources to modernize are gigantic. It has enough eggs to put in different baskets that can leverage influence to its benefit.

Third, ‘Guest is not God!’ as touted by Indians. The Chinese and Pakistani guests want a fair chunk of this country’s territory. They have used every dirty trick in the trade to de-stabilize India. Guests must strictly be made to adhere to the passport control regime. More vital is the fact that New Delhi to survive the hostile two-fronts must create extraordinary military capabilities with the help of democracies of the West led by America.

Modern military power capable of dominance in space, air, land and sea in Asia is key to India’s future. It should be able to defend the wealth we create as well as the democratic space.

Fourth, India must shape strong economic and military relationships with democracies like Japan, South Korea and others within Asia. This relationship can further acquire muscle by forming similar networked partnerships with the Western democracies led by America.

Twenty-first Century will witness a robust partnership between India and the United States due to the extraordinary synergy of purpose. The former to protect its democratic fabric and the territorial integrity, and the latter to defend its global stakes in Asia, which includes, access to this huge market.

This relationship between the two democracies can effectively compel Beijing to abandon New Cold War started by it in Asia and revert to ‘Peaceful rise of China!”

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The views expressed are of the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions or policies of the Indian Defence Review.

About the Author

Bharat Verma

A former Cavalry Officer and former Editor, Indian Defence Review (IDR), and author of the books, India Under Fire: Essays on National Security, Fault Lines and Indian Armed Forces.

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4 thoughts on “China’s ‘New Cold War’ puts democracies in danger

  1. Islam has a life of 1500 yrs as per the hadiths of Prophet Muhammed. It’s original life span was of 1000 yrs but an extra 500 yrs were given after the prayer of Muhammed to God. He asked God to give his Ummah another 500 yrs as a grace period.

    Accordingly, Islam dominated the world till 1680-1700 AD i.e around 1000 yrs since its orgin/inception. In 1650’s there were to great Muslim empires that controlled most of the world’s riches and GDP. Ottoman Empire of Turkey and the Mughal Empire in India. Both collapsed between 1680-1710

    Europeans defeated the Ottomans in Sept 11 1683 @Vienna and Hindus defeated the Mughal empire around 1707 (Death of Aurangzeb). After that Islam lost its old glory, never recovered. It is surviving on grace in form of Oil. From tiny Brunei to Saudi Arab most Muslim nations survive on Oil.

    This is Islamic year Hijri 1434. Another Islamic 66 yrs before it’s extinction. Islam according to the Prophet will be practiced only from Mecca & Medina and will never again rise to dominate. As per him, this will happen when Muslims will have the largest population on earth but this population will be weak like bubbles on water.

    China will be with Islamists. The communists and Islamists (both ideologies have great similarities) will both vanish from the face of earth followed with dawn of a great spiritual age of universal brotherhood, after decades of violence and loss of billions of human lives. An era of of Muslim & Mongol dominance is coming but will not last for long because these races are prone to violence. Leading us to a world war.

    The Hindus will also make their final payment in blood for their centuries old caste system discrimination thus ending the 1000 yr old foreign domination over India. India will rise to raise the world spiritual consciousness. West will pay for it’s colonial era atrocities . In this war, the west (Europeans) & the east(Hindus/Buddhists) will ally and emerge victorious after a bloody war beyond imgination

  2. Sir Winston Churchill rightly said that Democracy may not be the most efficient form of Governance, but in the long term it is the best form of governance- esp.for nation states with diversities. India having chosen the Democratic model, now becomes an eye sore to the Military dictatorships & Communist Dictatorships in Asia like Pakistan & China. Therefore the Convergance of Interests by Pakistan & China to destabilise India & the various Democracies in Asia. India needs to put its house in order & formulate a National Security Doctrine-Both External & Internal. Also India needs to shed its pacifist policies & rapidly Expand, Restructure, modernise & Synergise its Armed Forces, its Paramilitary forces,Its Intelligence agencies, Diplomacy & various govt. Structures for Clear cut & quick Decision making. In the External field, India should consider USA as its natural ally. Both countries have a lot in common.

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