As a precursor to the three day visit by China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi to India commencing August 12, our media reports that Chins seeks India’s “help” on the SCS. Nothing could be more naïve unless the idea is to keep the reality away from the public at large.
It is Chou en Lai who suggested to Pakistan to prepare for prolonged battle and raise a militia that would fight behind enemy’s (Indian) lines.
Referring to India, Chou en Lai meeting a Pakistani delegation to Beijing was far back in 1966 clenched his fist and said, “This is capable of delivering a forceful blow, but if you cut off one finger, the fist loses its power, not by one-fifth, but by fifty percent. If you wipe out a couple of hundred thousand of the enemy spread over a long front, its impact is not as great as wiping out an entire battalion or a brigade – the enemy’s morale is dealt a devastating blow. We know this from practical experience.” It is Chou en Lai who suggested to Pakistan to prepare for prolonged battle and raise a militia that would fight behind enemy’s (Indian) lines.
During Prime Minister Modi’s last visit to China, an Op-Ed in China’s Global Times (CPC’s official mouthpiece) stated, “Due to the Indian elite’s confidence in their democracy, and the inferiority of its ordinary people, few Indians are able to treat Sino-Indian ties accurately, objectively and rationally.” Notice the idiotic reference to Indians as “inferiority of its ordinary people” as if the Chinese were fathered by aliens – which may well be the misconception as dealt with later in this article.
Sure the Indian Navy is expanding and engaged in multilateral exercises on high seas especially in synch with the US and Japan, recent participation in Malabar 2016 in Western Pacific and RIMPAC being examples which engaged the attention of the Chinese.
But to say that China is “worried” would be cajoling oneself into happiness, grounds for which really don’t exist no matter the pretenses put up by China, and even if Wang Yi dupes us into thinking so. It is not by default that China blocked the NSG bid for NSG membership, will in all probability continue to do so, and will definitely stonewall attempts to India’s bid to a seat in the UNSC.
With the PLA already deployed in POK, China’s sub-conventional nexus with Pakistan is already showing greater surge. Unfortunately, a cross section of our politicians and media have become subservient to foreign interests for very obvious gains…
With the PLA already deployed in POK, China’s sub-conventional nexus with Pakistan is already showing greater surge. Unfortunately, a cross section of our politicians and media have become subservient to foreign interests for very obvious gains, a sample of which was the commendations showered by Hafiz Saeed recently on these anti-nationals. The China-Pak sub-conventional nexus is not only behind the upsurge in violence in J&K but elsewhere as well. If the NDFB is suspected for the recent Kokrajhar terrorist attack and its base in Myanmar is being talked about, it is the United Liberation Front of West, South, East Asia clobbered together under Chinese intelligence that we should be looking at, and same for the bandh calls by the radical outfits in Manipur.
Of course Pakistan has bartered her sovereignty to China in lieu of assured defence against India and support on the Kashmir issue conventionally, sub-conventionally and diplomatically.
Chinese submarines, both nuclear and conventional, have been foraging in the Indian Ocean past months – even in close vicinity of the Andaman and Nicobar Group of Islands. Gwadar not being on any trade route is unquestionably coming up as a Chinese SSBN base. Gwadar must also be seen in conjunction Pakistan’s Jinnah naval base at Omara in Balochistan which provides docking and repair facilities for submarines and warships and is to be connected to the CPEC. Gwadar, Omara and Karachi will provide PLAN and Pakistani Navy domination over the Arabian Sea and eastern opening of the Persian Gulf, even as the US is even today is shy of bilateral or multilateral naval exercises involving India in the Arabian Sea or the Persian Gulf region.
Chinese nuclear proliferation to Pakistan is well established – even flaunting NSG norms. Pakistan has disclosed intention to deploy nuclear weapons at sea, including sub-surface aboard submarines China is supplying to Pakistan. A recent report titled ‘The Complex and Increasingly Dangerous Nuclear Weapons Geometry of Asia’ by the Washington-based Arms Control Association says, “There is little evidence that China is very concerned with Indian nuclear forces or with the massive nuclear arsenal of Russia, which from a technical standpoint, potentially poses a much larger threat…. However, Beijing appears to size and structure its nuclear forces according to an evaluation of what is needed to pose unacceptable losses to the US in response to an American attack.”
…China has added more than 50 nuclear warheads to its ICBM forces capable of hitting the US mainland – within another decade, the number could well exceed 100.
The report goes on to say that over the last decade China has deployed road-mobile missiles capable of targeting US mainland (DF-5 ICBMs) and SSBNs as part of seagoing patrols very recently; China has added more than 50 nuclear warheads to its ICBM forces capable of hitting the US mainland – within another decade, the number could well exceed 100.
China’s financial clout over ASEAN countries particularly over Cambodia and Laos ensured that the recent ruling by the Hague-based Permanent Court of Arbitration in favour of Philippines rejecting the so-called historical claims by China was kept out of the ASEAN declaration. It is unlikely that China would be so lucky at the next G20 summit though she will endeavour her best to avoid the issue coming up for discussion in the first place.
Remember John Ashe, former UNGA President (2013-2014) was arrested for taking more than $1.3 million in bribes from Chinese businessmen including developer Ng Lap Seng. China has rubbished the Hague PCA ruling, sent fighter patrols to the SCS and violated the waters of Senkaku Islands, latter forcing Japan to lodge an official protest with Beijing. Note that China is calling for greater “bloody response” in SCS. China seeks no “help” from India on SCS and doesn’t expect India to change its view on Global Commons either. Drunk on money and military muscle, China has already decided to keep India boxed within South Asia and keep our economy emasculated.
During his visit, Wang Yi will act along usual ploys: allaying India’s serious concerns about PLA deployment in POK-Pakistan; portraying CPEC and related projects as developing the region for peace and prosperity; express concerns about US-India closeness; refer to bosom friend Pakistan as the victim of terrorism; deny military assistance to Pakistan is against India; Chinese assistance to insurgents and separatists in India being mere propaganda, and; exhibiting full cooperation in improving bilateral trade and investments – hoping the balance of trade will keep growing by leaps and bounds in China’s favour.
SCS or no SCS, China may claim historical claim to Andaman group of Islands anyway…
As a precursor to Wang Yi’s visit Chinese diplomats have already hinted at questioning the ownership of Andaman group of Islands depending on Indian cooperation on the SCS.
SCS or no SCS, China may claim historical claim to Andaman group of Islands anyway, considering China’s new world map claims Hawaii and most of Micronesia, not to forget Xi Jinping’s recent statement that the moon has been proved to an “inescapable part of China” due to an ancient marriage between Chinese Princess Wen Cheng and an ancient ruler based on the moon during the 7th. Of course Xi didn’t qualify which moon considering scientists have already discovered some 1500 galaxies or whether the princess betrothed alien kings of all the moons.
But getting back to Wang Yi, one should not be surprised in case another Chinese intrusion-cum-transgression or a China-Pakistan sponsored terror attack occurs coinciding with his visit. It may not be coincidence that Wang Yi’s visit ends on August 14 (on higher than the mountains, deeper than the ocean friend Pakistan’s independence day) and next day Prime Minister Modi is to address the nation from ramparts of the Red Fort.
Please wait...
Let the China do whatever it feels like . India must act as per a well considered strategy which need not be articulated in detail. Though actions must be visible at right time and place. However we need not be hyper or reactive .
SCS is not China’s grandpa property. Claiming 90% of SCS is highly hegemonic.
China , pakistan and North Korea becoming evil axis of Asia.
ASEAN failed in collective defence. SAARC failed in developing South Asia. Now Chinese menace is on the horizon in Asia.
China is now want to kick out US and become police man of Asia instead of constructively cooperating with neighbouring countries.
The grouping of indo-pacific countries may look as immature or dreaming or lack of knowledge on geo economics.
But look at the facts.
Does SCO, BRICS solve India’s terrorism and trade problem
Does BRICS bank and AIIB solve india’s infrastructure problems
Does US, Japan, Australia solve rising Chinese hegemonic problem
Did SAARC achieve connectivity or improve trade?
Did ASEAN solve and preserve peace in South East Asia?
SCO has become tool for China to expand into central asia.
BRICS bank and AIIB became appendage to Chinese OBOR and tool in Chinese strategic marshal plan.
pakistan, laos and Combodia became trojan horses of China
The only solution is indo pacific alliance
So indo-pacific alliance is feasible and realistic option. if India, Japan, Australia spend actively pursue this concept it will bear fruit in shorter time.
This alliance will be a kind non aligned active defence alliance excluding Russia and US to defend against China bullying and hegemonism in Asia. in this alliance countries are free to have relations with us or Russia. This alliance will become great wall of defence against China in Asia. It will have multi track preferential trade policies. it will have common defence equipment to defend against Chinese swarming tactics or A2/AD. For a start these countries can produce hundreds of missiles by pooling resources and operated by all the grouping countries. Whenever crisis countries erupts all the countries come to the defence of threatened country with the swarm of missile salvos to deter china.
No niceties to China. SCS is not China’s grandpa property. Claiming 90% of SCS is highly hegemonic. Let China and Pakistan collude to destabilise India. India should not budge from principled stand of supporting international court ruling..
ASEAN failed in collective defence. Time has come for dismantling SAARC and ASEAN. India should take initiative to form indo pacific military block of India, Japan, Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia,and whoever interested to join in opposing Chinese hegemony..
India should ditch BRICS, SCO, AIIB and BRICS bank. India, US, Japan together start new bank to support indo pacific alliance countries. This is more realistic option and a check for china.
When confronting China, no body will come to the rescue of India, Japan or Vietnam. Indo pacific alliance is best form of defence. If the countries in the grouping can pool their resources and reduce tariffs and share military logistics and technologies as a form of trading and military block, that will be enough to check China. Let the morons in our Indian political and defence establishment have guts to show some spine to Indian people.
Indian establishment is craving for NSG, UN seat and doing all kind of stunts. instead India should pursue productive foreign policy, but what is doing is joining all kind of groupings.This exposes India’s cat on the wall strategy. only wimps do this.
Russia is playing dumb and mute spectator and supplying advanced weapons to china there by destabilising Asia.
Chairman Mao said that Americans listen to big fart after exploding hydrogen bomb. We Indian establishment is dumb and clueless. US and Japan need that big fart strategy to make Chinese shiver.
And now Chinese are building railway lines in Bangladesh and Nepal and we are cutting budget of our Mountain Strike Corp. We are in booze of Hindi-chini bhai bhai may be once again.
Respected Sir,
I have a the following view after reading your well researched and interesting article :-
1. The Hague Verdict certainly is a big blow to China. China’s posturing and bullying tactics post verdict weakens its position and it stands to lose on respect and credibility parameters.
2. China is finding it increasingly difficult to manage and control the aspirations of its 1.4 bn population, and internally not in a very good shape, there are reports of serious group conflicts on regular basis. It needs Pakistan to control Islamic terror in its western provinces, Xinjiang being the epicentre.
3. Chinese Economy is running through tough times for sure, and they do not have in-house talent to control their financial and economic institutions, which is a serious matter. Many countries on the face of it may keep silent but there are reports that decisions to restrict business with China are in the offing. China’s poor record on intellectual property rights has upset many MNC corporations.
Whimsical responses and lack of transparency has eroded Chinese reputation and rising wages and inconsistent quality control has affected the exports.
At this stage I do not foresee any major stand-off over SCS, due to reasons as explained above and also US Presidential elections.
India at this stage may avoid being visibly critical of Chinese behaviour post SCS verdict, keep focused on its strategy to be a visible part of the United Alliance against China, engage China intelligently in business and side by side enhance its infrastructure in toto along the border areas, fast track development initiatives to keep the local population in good taste. Last but not the least provide our valiant troops with superior equipment, facilities and timely inputs. Police modernisation and Disaster Management infrastructure of all border districts should also be considered on priority.
Best regards,
Rajkaran Singh Bhatti
China has sort of understood the Indian State from experience reinforced since the days of Mao to be suicidal and masochistic.
Is this satire? Is this last recourse? Is this calling in favours? Is this Black Mail? With China, the inscrutable sub texts are infinitely nuanced around an arrogant core of ruthless expansionism:
China may also lay historical claim to your wife and kid. China may also claim that the house that you live in with them is also China’s and you have violated China Sovereignty by living in the house with them. If you are a coward and not ready for war you should surrender everything to China and the CPP
If china is ready to settle the border issue once and for all, then India may consider supporting them on scs. but supporting them on scs will weaken India’s credibility.