Geopolitics

China: Hum Dekh Rahe Hain – We Are Watching!
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Issue Net Edition | Date : 24 Apr , 2013

Commenting on the latest Chinese intrusion in Ladakh, Foreign Minister Salman Khurshid echoed former Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi’s famous cliché “Hum Dekh Rahen Hain, Hamen Dekhna Hoga, Hum Dekhenge”. Translated simply, it implies “we have been watching, we will have to watch, we will watch”. That in essence has been our foreign policy supported by an absent national security strategy kept in limbo and reinforced by an impotent defence industrial base ensured by AK Anthony as the longest serving Defence Minister. Whether the utterances of Salman Khursid were advertent or inadvertent is a matter of speculation though the former is most likely considering you can merrily twiddle your thumbs idly and keep the population guessing about the ‘Emperor’s Clothes”; do nothing, avoid accountability and in case of China, remain petrified behind a mask of bravery.

Chinese occupation of Aksai Chin was a strategic move looking into future  requirements of resources, as was her taking control of Shaksgam Valley in exchange of nuclear assistance to Pakistan and now strategic footprints into Gilgit-Baltistan region.

The next moves of the Chinaman should not be difficult to gauge considering previous patterns. The amused Chinese will watch briefly as our hierarchy will go for the so called ‘diplomatic offensive’ despite depraved evidence of similar diplomatic offensives against our much smaller neighbours. The Chinese Foreign Ministry has already said that there is no transgression, even as they can be expected to bring a dozer to the area of the pitched tent. Next, the Chinese will start constructing a road linking the area with the illegally occupied Aksai Chin while Sonia-Manmohan and Co will debate whether another Chow Mein shop in Ladakh would upset the stomachs of Indian voters or this can be laced by a digestive that Chinese have different perceptions of the LAC and the issue will be resolved ‘amicably’ when the border dispute is ‘eventually resolved’.

As in previous occasions, the Army Chief will be asked to give a statement to this effect, after which all connected reporting will be effectively blacked out. Flag meetings will continue and noodles and rosogollas savoured and shared. So what, if the Chinese set up shop selling biang-biang noodles in the tent until barrack(s) come up and defence works are constructed. That would just about sum up AK Antony’s recent statement, “India will take every step to protect its interests.” After all, the issue is to be resolved at the time of the eventual final settlement of the border dispute. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and Salman Khurshid will be commended for amicably ‘resolving’ the dispute and this stupendous diplomatic dexterity (or shall we say ‘victory’) will be used as a plus point by the Congress to sell to the hapless voters who in any case would not know the ground situation and cannot visit the area. An enterprising reporter may well get a shock of his life were he to investigate if anything like this had happened in the past but then such an account can always be dismissed as ‘notional’ loss or brushed off as planted Opposition gibberish in view of forthcoming elections. That would just about sum up AK Antony’s recent statement, “India will take every step to protect its interests.”

Chinese occupation of Aksai Chin was a strategic move looking into future  requirements of resources, as was her taking control of Shaksgam Valley in exchange of nuclear assistance to Pakistan and now strategic footprints into Gilgit-Baltistan region. For the same reason, China literally invested Myanmar and Nepal, claims Doklam Plateau in Bhutan and is practicing economic hegemony in Afghanistan, Central Asia and Africa, besides employing water as a weapon against India, blatantly ignoring water sharing norms.

In fact, against India it is no holds barred hostility : deep intrusionbehind the façade of border management under a peace and tranquility agreement; economic war through a grossly imbalanced bilateral trade; supporting and arming insurgencies within India; cyber attacks; lacing Chinese ‘string of peals’ with Islamic radicalism in conjunction Pakistan and Pakistan’s proxies (terrorist organizations) and the like. It may be recalled that China which was hitherto laying claims only to Tawang, suddenly staked its claim to entire Arunachal Pradesh despite Nehru sacrificing India’s UNSC seat in China’s favour and India supporting the ‘one China policy’ and having given China Tibet virtually on a plate.

If China does not listen to logic, what stops us from making a similar post as per ‘our perceptions’ of LAC or for that matter occupy Karakoram Pass till China withdraws this intrusion?

Let us have no illusions that this is a routine transgression, which it is not. This is a deliberate intrusion that shows the real face of Xi Jinping and the shape of things to come. Flag meetings are meaningless. You don’t expect the Chinese Foreign Ministry to retract its statement that the PLA has not walked across the LAC. Differing perceptions of LAC is all fine but was the known difference in this particular region more than 10 kilometres apart? Isn’t this game plan part of the perpetually expanding claim lines of the Chinese over the years? Of course there should be little doubt that Xi Jinping is capitalizing on the infighting amongst political parties within India especially with approaching elections and impotency displayed despite some 600 border transgressions by China in the last three years accross the 4057 kilometres long LAC, some of them deeper than the past, as admitted by AK Anthony.

This is certainly not the first time Chinese irredentism and communist imperialism being different from the expansionism or imperialism of western powers and Chinese ideological expansion concealed behind racial, national or historical claims, as cautioned by Sardar Patel to Pandit Nehru in 1950, has manifested itself. This is a clear cut case of ‘grabbing’ Indian Territory. So whatever happened to Non Alignment 2.0 – recommendation of ‘grab for grab’? Will our hierarchy remain petrified or show spine, as was shown during the 1967 Sino-Indian confrontation at Nathu La or later in 1986 at Sumdorong Chu where the Chinaman retreated in face of resolute action. Presenting a weak face will be foolish and would invite more intrusions. We don’t have to be scared of the PLA even as the unholy China-Pakistan nexus, including nuclear and asymmetric, has multiplied exponentially over the years, and with China getting more and more aggressive, the collusive China-Pakistan threat is acquiring dangerous dimensions with both countries following the policy of ambiguity, denial and deceit. If China does not listen to logic, what stops us from making a similar post as per ‘our perceptions’ of LAC or for that matter occupy Karakoram Pass till China withdraws this intrusion? Chinese ‘Pivot Asia’ includes Pakistan and North Korea, both of whom she made nuclear capable and backs continuously, resulting in the arrogance of these rogue states.

Within the framework of the US-India strategic partnership, India must go pro-active in building our strategic capabilities in addition to expanding our relationships with countries like Japan, Russia, South Korea, Taiwan and Australia especially since possibility of Russia-China confrontation on a future date is very much possible.  We must speedily remove the asymmetry vis-à-vis our adversaries in fields of aerospace, cyber, electromagnetic domains and rapid aerial deployments. Simultaneously, we must develop publicized overt capabilities and deniable covert capabilities to counter China’s irregular war waged against us.

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The views expressed are of the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions or policies of the Indian Defence Review.

About the Author

Lt Gen Prakash Katoch

is Former Director General of Information Systems and A Special Forces Veteran, Indian Army.

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10 thoughts on “China: Hum Dekh Rahe Hain – We Are Watching!

  1. Dear Sir,
    My compliments to you and your team on this well researched and precise collection on National security.
    Would look fwd to even more intense thoughts and opinions on ‘Northern Borders’, and associated PLA activities and capabilities directly affecting own def preparedness.
    Regards Dependra Manrai

  2. The author is right in suggesting that we could have swiftly had’a perceptional revelation’ too to occupy and establish a similar post else where. Our repeated intransigence has however already proved to the world that we are not interested in defending our territory.
    And in light of that the discussion is futile.

  3. These are crucial times. The world percieves India as leaderless with inaction attitude, in slow motion, and without a sense of strategy. Whether all that is true or false does not matter. Those who care in the security department must influence a new strategy. Continue dialog with the key Chinese officials but embark upon a massive military buildup effort along the border. At the end of the day the only thing that will matter will be India’s capability to retaliate should a shooting war with China occur. The threat of retaliation is the reason why there has been peace between US and Russia.

  4. We don’t need to go piggy-back on any partnership: that is in reality doing the senior partners dirty work – at our own risk of course!! If the choice is between India and China, the US would dump us without batting an eyelid: China means a lot to the US. Lets face facts: we run the risk of becoming marginalized or actually irrelevant in the world order, unless we get our act together. While on an official visit to the US my Mongol colleague asked as to why India does not help Mongolia counter the Chinese. We need to cultivate Mongolia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Vietnam, Japan and other rim-states economically, strategically, politically and militarily. We need to build up naval and air power to project it into the Indian Ocean and China Sea. Building a small runway at Indira Point is indeed a small, though significant, step – but will remain an insignificant one unless we build up on it. Similarly, our toe-hold in Tajikistan needs to be upgraded – periodically. Otherwise we will have an impressive number of toeholds – but the feet will slip! The Chinese are wise – they will get the message. I remember reading of what the Soviet authorities told a visiting German delegation (before the war): if you attack us we will smash you! The Germans launched Operation Barbarossa – the rest is history to those who care to read. I had put forward some of these arguments in my book – but sadly there were no readers (except perhaps myself)!!!

    We continue to snivel up to China – in vain expectation of perhaps a condescending and patronizing smile, and then proclaim that “all is well”. It isn’t. It is like believing that compromise is a good thing – especially one way and at the drop of a hat. To quote Churchill who said: compromise is like feeding a crocodile – hoping it will eat you last. Of course it will eat you when it wants to (and doesn’t need your permission either)!! Trotsky’s words that one must look at an enemy…but also at friend are indeed significant!

  5. To the best of my knowledge, the Karakoram Pass is with us. Also at the time of independence, our troops were at the fort of Shahidulla – some 30 kilometers north of the Karakoram Pass. Why we withdrew is a moot question. The answers are possibly under wraps somewhere in the MEA. We should stand up to China – but from a position of economic, political and military strength instead of whining all the time. The world respects a nation that can get its act together – so will China.

    • Excellent point ! The history of Karakorum pass needs to be brought out in the open. Just to blame the political leadership all the time for India’s failed foreign policies does not hold water. After all the MEA officials have big say in that area. The culture of recruiting them by public service examination at an younger age is passe and needs to be revised. Some senior (retired) military personnel and other political analysts deserve their berths in the MEA hierarchy. The structure of MEA needs urgent overhauling. In present time they are busy building bonhomie with the enemy, eg. joint military exercise with China – an absurd proposition. They fail to see that India is too big a nation and has the capacity to stand up on her own feet in this world.

  6. Chinese have been playing policy of testing indian nerves to react to a large scale, and then absolving the issue by saying that aggression is not done with 20-25 soldiers camping along LAC . India is habituated to raise a cry even on a simple issue .Definitely they will withdraw but if India keeps quite then matter can add up to pose a threat to national integrity.
    It would have been better to concentrate and focus on other areas of interest like strengthening of infra in border areas and development of logistics to indicate that any infiltration may lead to a problem for china ,which will be difficult to resolve and discuss in international forum.
    Now this is the turn for india to think in a way strategically to put china on back foot.

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