Indian Defence Review

So, in a rather remarkable coincidence, the maritime histories of both India and China actually mirror each other. When they wielded maritime power, both countries prospered, and their influence was felt across the world. But when their maritime power declined and decayed, they were invaded and colonised by outside powers.

Both countries ultimately emerged from the shackles of colonialism almost simultaneously in the middle of the 20th century. The two nations followed totally different political systems and developmental models; China’s economic liberalisation in the early 1980s was followed by India a decade later. Today, ‘Chindia’ as the two countries are collectively known, constitutes the fastest growing economic pair in the world.

Not surprisingly, both countries are growing maritime powers too, whose interests overlap each other in several areas. They are also nuclear powers, although each follows a different dogma. Consequently, unless the rise of both the countries is managed with wisdom, maturity and foresight, a faultline could form, not just of Indo-Sinic civilisations but also of conflicting interests which could lead to tensions, frictions, polarisation and eventually, conflict as predicted by Samuel Huntingdon. This constitutes a frightening scenario with not just regional but international implications.

Because of her closed political system China’s motives and actions present an enigma to the entire world. To India, China’s actions in the Indian Ocean Region are of particular interest. The PLA Navy’s maritime forays into the Indian Ocean, while not as grandiose or frequent as those by Zheng He’s fleets of yore, do arouse our interest and curiosity. As I am sure, do our visits to East Asia and exercises in the South China sea do in China.

Over the past few years, pragmatic politics on both sides have resulted in a sustained dialogue over the boundary issue, which has yielded some tangible results. Bilateral trade between India and China has the potential to become the most important partnership for India in the years ahead. On the military front, we have signed a MoU on Defence Cooperation in 2006, and our navies have conducted basic exercises on two occasions.

China has also been engaged in expanding her Navy and making it a blue water force over the past decade. She has bought advanced naval weaponry from Russia and has also achieved considerable success in indigenously developing several weapon platforms and systems such as ICBMs, combat aircraft, and nuclear submarines as well as SLBMs of substantial range.

So on the one hand, there is this immense possibility of cooperation with a peaceful China for mutual prosperity. On the other hand, there is the spectre of a possible clash due to conflict of interests or outstanding disputes.

Because of this, it is important that we countries do not see our relations as a zero sum game for either. India and China are still to overcome huge challenges. Both have large populations, a large percentage of which live below the poverty line. Both suffer from a resource and energy deficit and have to import most of their energy requirements a large part of it across the Indian Ocean Region.   Underlying all this is the realisation that both have much to gain through bilateral cooperation.

There is also a need for us in India to review our mindsets and attitudes. In the past, we have harped upon and bemoaned our so-called ‘encirclement’ by China. But on our own part we have made very little effort to reach out, to befriend or lend substantive assistance to our maritime neighbours. So short-sighted have been our policies that whenever we have some given (grudging) assistance, we have sought not just instant returns but demeaning subservience from the recipient.

The appropriate counter to China’s encirclement of India is to build our own relations, particularly in our neighbourhood, on the basis of our national interests and magnanimity towards smaller neighbours – something espoused by Mr Gujral during his tenure as the Prime Minister.

My own recent experience with many of these countries clearly indicates that they see a democratic, secular and moderate India as a more attractive and viable alternative provided we are willing to go that extra step to meet their legitimate security requirements.

In short, we should stop being surprised and indignant if China follows Disraeli’s dictum and acts in her own national interests. It is entirely up to us and high time that we did exactly the same.

India and China together combined represent the hopes and aspirations of a large percentage of the developing world.   As responsible powers, it is our duty to ensure that both of us ‘rise peacefully’. The logic that strength breeds respect, and therefore the progress in our bilateral relations with China can be ascribed to our growing national power, both economic and military, is probably true. However, lasting relationships can only be built on the basis of mutual trust, which can only be achieved through a clear understanding of each other’s intentions.

Before I conclude, let me leave you a thought from Martin van Creveld’s book “War & Military Thought”. He says in the context of ancient Chinese military writings: “Finally the texts in question cannot be understood without bearing in mind the underlying way in which Chinese culture approaches war. War was neither a means in the hands of policy, nor an end in itself. Instead it was regarded as an evil, albeit one that was sometimes rendered necessary by the imperfections of the world.” Sun Tzu, the oldest and most famous Chinese general of all says in this context “Weapons are instruments of ill omen”.