Geopolitics

Chasing the Flies and the Tigers
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Issue Vol. 30.1 Jan-Mar 2015 | Date : 17 May , 2015

The First Female General Caught

The same Caixin.com announced that the first female ‘tiger’ was under investigation, suspected of bribery. Before her arrest, Maj. Gen. Gao Xiaoyan used to be a Political Commissar and CCDI’s representative at the PLA Information Engineering University. She is suspected of taking big amounts while serving as Political Commissar at the PLA’s 309th Hospital from 2005 to 2012. Some rumours said that she was intimately close to Gu Junshan. A native of Shanxi, the province which is topping arrests for corruption, Gao joined the army when she was 17. She had been responsible for major construction projects at the hospital. It included building 15 dormitories and a garage, which could accommodate 1,000 vehicles. If many of the senior posts have been ‘purchased’, one understands that the level of preparedness of the Chinese Armed Forces was not the first priority of many Generals.

The PLA is the world’s largest armed force and has been a pillar of the communist government…

Spate of Military Suicides

The PLA has recently witnessed a wave of suicides linked to corruption. In November, The South China Morning Post (SCMP) reported, “As Supreme Leader Xi Jinping’s anti-graft crusade penetrates the inner circles of the People’s Liberation Army, signs of internal tension and disorder among senior military leaders are becoming evident, with reliable sources reporting that a growing number of leaders have committed suicide.” The Hong Kong newspaper cites the cases of Vice Admiral Ma Faxiang who, on November 2013, jumped from the 15th floor of the PLA Navy’s headquarters in Beijing. Ma was the Deputy Commissar responsible for promotions and ideological indoctrination of officers.

A few days earlier, Maj. Gen. Song Yuwen, Deputy Commissar of Jilin military district (of Shenyang Military Region), had hanged himself. He had earlier been suspended on corruption charges. Note that Xu Caihou served most of his early career in Jilin military district. On September 02, Rear Admiral Jiang Zhonghua also jumped from a high-rise building on a naval base in Zhejiang province. Jiang was then director of naval armaments for the South Sea Fleet. The SCMP explains, “The PLA is the world’s largest armed force and has been a pillar of the communist government. Its members enjoy enormous privileges, wealth and political clout, which has bred corruption and immunity from punishment.” ‘Suicide’ is often convenient as dead officers do not speak.

Change of Guard in the PLA

In the process of wiping out corruption, Chairman Xi seems to have decided to go in for a change of guard. In December 2014, The South China Morning Post asserted that the ‘big changes’ in China always occurred on Friday or Saturday, “For the past two years it has been accepted – almost as a rule of thumb – among China’s media and interested mainlanders that Fridays and weekends are the likely time for senior officials to fall from grace over allegations of corruption.” The ‘big change’ for the PLA Tigers did not happen on a weekend, but on the Christmas day.

In the process of wiping out corruption, Chairman Xi seems to have decided to go in for a change of guard…

Want China Times, the news website based in Taiwan announced the replacement of 40 senior commanders in the armed forces. The Taiwanese paper reported, “Chinese President, Xi Jinping, has replaced 40 senior military commanders including the head of the People’s Armed Police according to a new nomination list posted by a Chinese internet user.” The article asserted, “Xi has continued his purge of PLA generals whose loyalty to him may be questionable. The nomination list released on December 20 suggests that various key positions within the Chinese military will be taken over by Lieutenants Generals who are close associates of Xi.” Apart from Qin Weijiang, Hu Yishu and Li Shangfu nominated as the Deputy Chiefs of the General Staff, General Logistics and General Equipment departments respectively, Yin Fanglong and Miao Hua were named as the Political Commissars of the Second Artillery Corps and Navy, while Wang Weiming and Wang Dengping are to be the Deputy Commanders and Deputy Political Commissars of the PLA Navy. Zhang Junxiang and Zhou Yaning will now serve as the Second Artillery Corps’ new Deputy Commanders. Are all these generals honest? It is difficult to say.

The Tibet Military District

Also interesting is the fate of Lt. Gen. Wang Jianping, the Commander of the People’s Armed Police (PAPF) who has apparently lost his job to Wang Ning, a Deputy Chief of General Staff of the PLA. Wang Jiangping was an old Tibet-hand. A native of Hebei province, this officer was promoted to Major General in 1997 and ten years later, he became Lieutenant General. He served as Commander of the Tibet Autonomous Region’s (TAR) PAPF from 1996 to 2000. He knows Tibet well and particularly the frontiers with India. Wang used to be a member of the Central Working Coordination Small Group on Tibet.

2014 Military Achievements

On December 26, 2014, China Military Online quoted a ‘Russian expert’ who listed the top five Chinese military achievements in terms of equipment for the year 2014. The PLA website says China attracted world attention by a series of impressive military achievements. Though quoting an outsider (Russian), this reflects Beijing’s perceptions. Russia’s Satellite Channel reported that an ‘expert’ of Russia’s Strategic and Technical Analysis Centre had selected what he considered the five most important military achievements of China during the past year.

  • The first is the combat readiness of the ‘JL-2’ Inter-Continental Ballistic Missile (ICBM), “China has now the strategic nuclear strength that possesses maritime real-combat capability”, comments the Russian expert.
  • The JL-2 (Giant Wave 2) is a second-generation Inter-Continental-range Submarine-Launched Ballistic Missile (SLBM) able to deliver its payload(s) within a range of 14,000 km with single or multiple warheads (conventional or nuclear).
  • The second achievement is the development of the DF-41, an Inter-Continental Ballistic Missile, “which made China free from worries of effectiveness and reliability of nuclear containment. Possibly, the deployment of the DF-41 missiles may increase the size of China’s nuclear arsenal significantly,” according to the expert.
  • The Dongfeng-41 (DF-41 or East Wind-41) is a nuclear solid-fueled road-mobile Inter-Continental Ballistic Missile. Its estimated range is between 12,000 km to 15,000 km. In its 2013 Report to Congress, the US Department of Defense had stated, “China may also be developing a new road-mobile ICBM, possibly capable of carrying a Multiple Independently-targetable Re-entry Vehicle (MIRV).” It is now official!
  • The third achievement is the ‘debut’ of the J-31 fighter. “The J-31 may be the only kind of ‘cheap stealth fighter’ and is more competitive than the expensive fifth-generation fighters such as the US F-35 fighters in terms of export value,” explains the Russian TV.
  • The appearance of the J-31 stealth fighter at the 2014 Zhuhai Air Show attracted a lot of attention.
  • The fourth development is the CX-1 cruise missile. “If the mass production is available, China will become a new powerful supplier in the tactical missile market,” according to the expert. The CX-1 is a supersonic anti-ship cruise missile which could be exported to countries such as Iran, Pakistan and African or South American countries. It was also on display at the Zhuhai Air Show. The missile strangely resembles India’s BrahMos cruise missile.
  • The last achievement is the MBT-3000 Main Battle Tank (MBT) which will be sold to Pakistan. “The MBT-3000 Main Battle Tanks are produced independently in China and their export will greatly enhance the strength of Chinese manufacturers in the global market”, asserts the expert.

One could add the trial launch of the WU-14, the Chinese hypersonic aircraft. Lift-off by an ICBM, it separated from the missile in the upper atmosphere and then glided and dived towards the earth at a speed ten times that of the velocity of sound, reaching 8,000 miles/hour (about 12,800 kilometres/hour). Igor Korotchenko, Director of the Centre for Analysis of World Arms Trade of Russia, believed that it is a proof of China’s enhanced capability to overcome the missile defense system of the US.

On December 04, 2014, the US media, quoting some Pentagon officials, announced that China had conducted the third test on its hypersonic aircraft WU-14. The test comes under China’s strategic nuclear program. This looks as a great achievement but obviously, Beijing does not want to bring too much media focus on it.

When Wang visited Tibet in June 2014, the TAR’s entire Standing Committee was in attendance to receive him. While in Lhasa, he inspected the TAR’s People’s Armed Police training base, a Traffic police detachment, Tibet’s Forest Armed Police Corps, the 117 Police Division, a detachment of Ngari Police. According to The Tibet Daily, he wanted to get a detailed understanding of the situation. Wang Jianping then acknowledged the success achieved by the Armed Police’s Tibet Corps and the Armed Police Forces and gave a piece of advice to officers posted on the frontiers; a good chess player takes the initiative.

The ‘big change’ for the PLA Tigers did not happen on a weekend, but on the Christmas day…

Well, he was probably too close to Zhou Yongkang, the former member of the Politburo’s Standing Committee, who is now being ‘investigated’. It was not a good move on the chessboard for Wang. For India the question is – will a ‘softer’ hand help to stabilise the restive Himalayan region which is the base for any action on the Indian frontiers? It is not certain. Also interesting for us in India, is the fate of Lt. Gen. Yang Jinshan, who for years commanded the Tibet Military District, opposite the Indian troops posted in Arunachal. He ‘did’ so well that he reached the ‘Marxist’ heaven, the CPC’s Central Committee (CC).

In 2005, Yang (a Han, like all senior PLA officers) was promoted to the rank of Major General and in July 2011, he became a Lieutenant General. He had earlier taken over the Command of the Tibet Military District in 2009. In 2012, he was elected as a member of the powerful Central Committee. In June 2013, General Yang was transferred on promotion to Chengdu as a Deputy Commander of the Chengdu Military Region from where he continued to oversee the operations in Tibet.

In October 2014, he was suddenly expelled from the Central Committee ‘for serious disciplinary violations’; it was a first in the annals of the Party – a serving General expelled from the CC. Apparently, General Yang’s fall is also linked to Xu Caihou’s wrongdoings. In the meantime, the CMC warned that ideological struggles within the PLA were ‘acute and complicated’. The Global Times asserted, “Military reform has entered ‘uncharted waters’ with concerns growing that reform could be impeded by ‘structural problems’.” Quite worrying! It would not be surprising if, in 2015, some disgruntled Generals try to enter Indian territory in Ladakh or Arunachal, just to divert the attention of the leadership.

Xi has continued his purge of PLA generals whose loyalty to him may be questionable…

Indo-Chinese relations

Just before the ‘reshuffle’ in the PLA, Senior Colonel Yang Yujun, the spokesman of the Ministry of National Defense during his regular monthly press conference in Beijing was asked, “Can you give some details on how you see the next year coming?” After mentioning the friendly exchange between China and India and ‘several important cooperation programs between the two militaries’, he spoke of the border defense troops of the two sides who conducted meetings and regular exchanges; he said, “Both sides also properly handled issues of encounter at the Line of Actual Control and maintained peace and stability on the China-India border.”

One still remembers the Chumar incident at the time of Chairman Xi’s visit. The spokesman added, “We should focus our attention on the implementation of the Border Defense Cooperation Agreement signed by the two governments and ensure peace and stability along the China-India border.” To focus on the implementation of the Border Defense Cooperation Agreement does not mean that there will be no Chinese intrusions on Indian soil in 2015, it just signifies, “we can tackle these issues through the Border Agreement.” For the Chinese, the fact that there is a mechanism does not mean ‘no intrusion’, quite the contrary.

In the meantime, the ‘training of the different units based on the plateau continues on a large scale. This is the second part of Xi’s dual move. The conclusion is that India too should be prepared for any contingencies.

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The views expressed are of the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions or policies of the Indian Defence Review.

About the Author

Claude Arpi

Writes regularly on Tibet, China, India and Indo-French relations. He is the author of 1962 and the McMahon Line Saga, Tibet: The Lost Frontier and Dharamshala and Beijing: the negotiations that never were.

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