Indian Defence Review

In an interview with the BBC last December, Pakistan’s Foreign Minister, Ms Hina Rabbani Khar admitted that the Pakistan army’s overwhelming power and influence over the civilian government was a fact of life since the country came into existence in 1947. Will this situation go on for, say, another 50 years? Can this strangulation of Pakistan’s politics change?

Gilani further attacked the armys strategic principles of “strategic depth in Afghanistan” and “India as the No.1 enemy”. He emphasised that a stable, peaceful, independent, sovereign Afghanistan was in Pakistans interest.

But what happened on December 22, 2011 may be the embryonic beginning of a new path if the people of Pakistan, the political parties and countries which are most crucial to Pakistan get together and support this new development. Usually, such developments die an early death in Pakistan because opposition parties approach the army to intervene directly (coup) or indirectly (helping in ousting the civilian government). With the two major political parties—Mian Nawaz Sharif led (PML-N) and Asif Ali Zardari headed Pakistan People’s Party (PPP)—having suffered at the hands of the army, may consider putting aside their petty political differences and focus on ensuring that civilian politicians to lead the country.

Reacting to the arrogance and independence of the army and its Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), Prime Minister Yusaf Raza Gilani decided to fight back. Addressing a seminar to commemorate the 135th birth anniversary of Qaid-e-Azam Mohammad Ali Jinnah, and addressing the parliament—all within a space of two hours—Gilani launched an unprecedented challenge against the army. The government was upset with the Defence Secretary’s communication to the Attorney General that the Defence Ministry was not under the government and could not make submissions to the Supreme Court in the alleged infamous “Memo” to the US government.

Both Gen Kayani and ISI Chief Lt Gen Pasha have submitted to the Supreme Court their responses that the memo was real. Zardari has refused to submit his petition on the grounds that the court had no jurisdiction in the issue.

In a sharp statement Gilani told the people and the parliament that conspiracies were being hatched to topple the government. He made it clear that “They (army) have to be answerable to the Parliament”, that “they cannot be a state within a state” and “the army must follow the constitution”. He reminded them that it was his government which had stood by the security forces over the Osama bin Laden killing, the November 26, NATO attack on the Salala army post, and the 2008 terrorist attacks in Mumbai. He also asked how Osama bin Laden had been living in Pakistan undetected for six years.

Gilani further attacked the army’s strategic principles of “strategic depth in Afghanistan” and “India as the No.1 enemy”. He emphasised that a stable, peaceful, independent, sovereign Afghanistan was in Pakistan’s interest. And, Pakistan viewed India as its most important neighbour and desired sustained, substantive and result-oriented dialogue to resolve all outstanding issues including the core issue of Kashmir.

In brief, Gilani warned the army that the GHQ in Rawalpindi was responsible for the Mumbai terror attack, giving refuge to the most wanted international terrorist Osama who was responsible for directing the unprecedented terrorist attacks against the USA (26/11) from Pakistan’s soil and under the army’s protection, and was responsible for the worst ever relationship with the US.

This fight between the court and the government is likely to plunge the country into a constitutional tussle where more than law is involved.

Returning from Dubai earlier than expected where he had gone for treatment of a heart condition, President Asif Ali Zardari called upon the nation to pledge that it will not allow any change through force, intimidation and “bullet” and respect democratic elections as the instrument of change. Zardari’s travel to Dubai to be treated at an American hospital was surrounded by conflicting statements and rumours. One thing that came out clear was through Gilani’s statement was that Zardari feared for his life in a Pakistani hospital. Army doctors had offered to treat him. Zardari’s fears go back to his years in jail under Gen. Musharraf’s regime when reports came out in the international media about attempts to murder him. Zardari, personally, has a difficult time ahead. Army Chief Gen Asfaq Kayani, who sees him as an American stooge, is determined to oust him. He has also fallen foul of the Pakistani Supreme Court, especially Chief Justice Iftikhar Ahmed Choudury. In an arrangement made with President Musharraf in 2008, corruption cases against the late Benazir Bhutto and her husband were closed under the National Reconciliation Order (NRO). The Supreme Court has nullified the NRO and has reopened the cases in which many other were beneficiaries. Zardari and Musharraf remain the main targets.

The only fly in the ointment, however, is the memo scandal—the alleged unsigned memo sent to US Chairman of Chiefs of General Staff in early May, 2011 by then ambassador to the US, Hassan Haqqani through Pakistani-American businessman Mansoor Ijaz. The memo is alleged to have been initiated at the behest of President Zardari, requesting American assistance if the army attempted a coup and promising several stepped up cooperation for counter-terrorism. Fundamentally, such a request to a foreign country can be interpreted as treason, but the definition would be open to interpretation in case of an army coup. The Supreme Court has stepped into the case, and the reason is obvious.

The main question in the current situation is how the Pakistani army will deal with the multifarious challenges they face. They are under severe criticism from some sections in Pakistan for bringing relations with the US to this unprecedented low.

Both Gen Kayani and ISI Chief Lt Gen Pasha have submitted to the Supreme Court their responses that the memo was real. Zardari has refused to submit his petition on the grounds that the court had no jurisdiction in the issue. Meanwhile, leading human rights activist and Supreme Court lawyer Ms Asma Jehangir who was representing Hossain Haqqani in the memo case in the Supreme Court, withdrew alleging collusion between the court and the army against Haqqani.

This fight between the court and the government is likely to plunge the country into a constitutional tussle where more than law is involved. The Army-Supreme Court collusion has become evident. Mansoor Ijaz first disclosed the details of the memo in a media article, and also confirmed in a meeting with Pasha subsequently in London that the memo were authentic. Mansoor Ijaz is neither a small man nor a novice. And he is not concerned about collateral havoc when he chases a cause. In this case, his cause was to expose the Pakistani army’s aims, and he had the backing of a section of the American security establishment. Ijaz’s utter dislike for the Pak army is well known.