The terrorist attack at the army camp at Mahura in Uri Sector of J&K on 5th December resulted in the martyrdom of at least eight army personnel and three police personnel including one Lt Col of the army. All six terrorists were killed. This was one in series of other terrorist attacks in J&K same day, ostensibly in the run up to the second phase of elections scheduled on 9th December and as prelude to the next visit of PM Modi to J&K.
The attacks gave a breather to sagging morale Hurriyat’s Geelaini who was apprehending his doles being cut off by the ISI because his bandh (shutdown) calls during elections were ineffective.
This was hardly the first attack on an army camp. Among the much precedence, there have been two such attacks on the army garrison at Kaluchak that also housed families of service personnel. Then there was the one at Tanda where a Brigadier was killed and the Northern Army Commander on a visit at the time of the attack escaped by the skin of his teeth. The last major one was at Samba where the terrorist wearing black overalls akin to the personnel in the targeted camp, entered the army camp and killed a Colonel rank officer besides others.
In the present instance, the terror attacks were timed coinciding with the rabid mullah Hafiz Saeed holding a massive anti-India JuD rally at Lahore under total patronage of the Pakistani government. All this while Pakistani Army Chief Raheel Sharif was patted on the back in the US, conferred the US Legion of Merit medal and US Secretary of State John Kerry eulogized Pakistani army as the “truly binding force”.
The question here is what have we learnt from all this? To say that lives of security personnel have little meaning in India is little wonder, notwithstanding the recent statement made by the PM while addressing the DGPs conclave at Guwahati regarding sacrifices made by police personnel. So what has been the response to the series of terrorist attacks on 5th December? The media says Pakistan has unleashed proxy war on India – pray what has been happening in past three decades? Omar Abdullah, Mehbooba Mufti and some other J&K politicians make bland statements condemning Pakistan while the State Government diverts funds for promoting terrorism and are hand-in-glove with terrorists, same as the main opposition party.
The attacks gave a breather to sagging morale Hurriyat’s Geelaini who was apprehending his doles being cut off by the ISI because his bandh (shutdown) calls during elections were ineffective. The Home Minister says that Pakistan should stop such terror attacks – if horses could have wings! Section of the media says that since President Obama has declined to visit Pakistan in conjunction India in January next on grounds of instability, Pakistan wants to create instability in India to ward off Obama’s trip to India. Some appreciation but you are widely off the mark Sir. Don’t expect Obama to be deterred by such antics and Pakistan will ensure no terror attack takes place in New Delhi while Obama is here.
…briefing by his ISI mentors was simple: go and kill as many Indian security personnel you can in next 12-24 months; enjoy the hoors (women) of J&K as much as you can – you have the gun so no one will stop you…
There are the usual sermons of beefing up security, which indeed are valid but consider this that if a taxi full of civilians jump two consecutive check posts despite being challenged to stop and troops open fire killing them, you sentence the soldiers to life imprisonment. In such environment do you expect sentries to open fire at terrorist who approach them on foot dressed up like Indian security personnel? Did this not happen in the terrorist attack on an army camp in Samba? Will the system hold the hand of the sentry if he is suspicious and opens fire ‘first’? It is a different issue that the military personnel jailed in the Machhil encounter may be exonerated decades later as it happened in the case of the Samba Spy Scandal; exoneration after 18 years with careers and reputations destroyed without compensation. In any case how do you reverse 18 years of military life?
One had the occasion to visit the Join Interrogation Centre at Srinagar in early 1990’s. The captured Pakistani terrorist was vocal about instructions given to him in Pakistan post training, arming, financed (with additional fake Indian currency) and radicalized with stories of Indian atrocities – akin to what you find on website of Hurriyat’s Geelani. His briefing by his ISI mentors was simple: go and kill as many Indian security personnel you can in next 12-24 months; enjoy the hoors (women) of J&K as much as you can – you have the gun so no one will stop you; enjoy yourself and our links across will ensure you are not arrested; in the event you do get arrested, enjoy yourself since no lawyer will be ready to prosecute you and you cannot be moved out of J&K; then you have the human rights groups that will holler for your early release; we will look after your kin here, and; rest assured on your return we will pay you more.
Many on TV shows say that India should “up the ante” without elaborating what do they imply by that. Whose baby is it anyway – Defence Ministry, Home Minister, External Affairs? Are we to go for another Op ‘Parakaram’? Of course MoD has been giving serious thought to counter terrorism in its own specialized way. A veteran General recently posted on Facebook that sometime back he met an Indian Postal Service officer serving in MoD (as part of armed forces civil service) doing a counter terrorism course in the United States. What a cute covert way to obtain expertise. Perhaps that is the reason no Post Office has faced a terrorist attack. But that apart, where is the time to think about such trivial issues like proxy war.
A former MoS for Defence says his first day in office, the Defence Secretary walked up and told him his one priority task is to keep the military under the thumb. Then you have this veteran ambassador who first was in IAS and on his first day in MoD was briefed that he simply should concentrate on what procurements are in pipeline, how much money can be ‘made’ and forget the rest. So what has changed?
If future terrorist attack involves a weapon of mass disturbance (chemical, radiological, biological), how do you expect to respond?
Somehow, our hierarchy fails to comprehend that conventional response to sub conventional threats is recipe for continued impotency. Proxy wars aim to take advantage of the weaknesses of the adversaries while maximizing one’s own strength, achieving disproportionate effect. Today’s conflict situations show the most effective response from a state against superior operational power of an opponent is crafty diplomacy, wily espionage, terrorism (including cyber terrorism), low intensity conflict or proxy war, employment of weapons of mass destruction like dirty / chemical / radiological bombs through non state actors and a host of other asymmetric approaches.
We may well be subjected to CBRN terrorism in the near future and in countering Pakistan’s proxy war, we have to build the deterrence on our own steam. If future terrorist attack involves a weapon of mass disturbance (chemical, radiological, biological), how do you expect to respond? Surely the response cannot be second strike. Isn’t this what sub-conventional warfare is all about? This is the major lesson we should have learnt from Op ‘Parakaram’. Ironically, emergence of irregular forces with greater strategic value over conventional and even irregular forces during conflict situations in recent years has not been acknowledged by India. Hence, we have failed to establish deterrence against irregular forces relying only on diplomacy, which has not sufficed. Current and future threats that India faces dictates there can be no shortcut from having full spectrum conflict capabilities.
What should be a matter of serious concern to us is that while Pakistan possesses advanced sub conventional capabilities and is employing them proactively, India is lagging behind. This is a strategic asymmetry considering sub-conventional war will continue to be the order of the day. That is why condemnation of Pakistan (mother of terror) remains lip service by globalplayers since Pakistan’s ISI retains the strategic potential to assist both US and China even though running with the hares and hunting with the hounds, as big powers play the Great Game in curbing influence of their rival. The fault lines of Pakistan are numerous. Take the population of Gilgit-Baltistan who do not want to be part of Pakistan. Same goes for Baluchistan, Sindh, NWFP etc. The key lies in not only protecting your own fault lines but getting a handle on the adversary’s fault line.
…we have failed to establish deterrence against irregular forces relying only on diplomacy, which has not sufficed.
For creating deterrence to proxy war the foundation is well planned intelligence-cum-psychological operations at the strategic level for which the right mix of intelligence agencies and Special Forces is must. Unfortunately, in India the external intelligence agencies consider this to be their exclusive domain. The result has been continuing and gaping voids in strategic intelligence and fiascos in experimenting with the LTTE and organizations like EROS. Significantly, all this is linked to the deeper malaise of keeping the military out of policy formulation on matters military and national security and the MoD sans military expertise. That the military-industrial complex has been in such horrible state too is because of absence of military (users) in the DRDO-DPSUs-OF especially at the management and decision making levels.
The late Dr Krishnaswamy Subramanyam considered the doyen of strategic thought in India by every government kept recommending that we need to overhaul our higher defence set up but only cosmetic changes were made, main reasons being the intransigence of the political hierarchy to matters military, corruption and unaccountability of the bureaucracy and hold of the arms mafia that draws power from funding political parties.
It is high time we shed the utopia of Pakistan changing its India policy, which is firmly in the grip of her military-ISI that aside from spawning terrorism globally has pathological hatred towards India. Pakistan’s proxy war will be get a boost with post 2014 Afghanistan and developments in the Middle East. It hardly needs reiteration that conventional power is ineffective against sub-conventional threats. Idealism cannot be a stand-alone factor especially when costs of following an inward looking policy is much higher in the long-run and detrimental to our economic progress and national security.
Therefore, the macro level changes we need are to remove the sub-conventional asymmetry through balanced mix of realism and idealism; evolving such a policy with a road map and an execution plan. As per former Service Chiefs whenever there was occasion to discuss reponse to asymmetric war, the hierarchy closed the issue. Noe the million dollar question is will the government under Prime Minister Modi change all this or will we continue as status quoists?
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Sure; Pakistan can not and will not change its policy towards India. PM Modi has to depend on Sushma swaraj, Rajnath Singh, Manohar Parikar and of course, Ajit Doval to work out a policy of response to Pakistan’s sub conventional war. Pakistan has developed expertise but are Police men capable of going that extra mile ? Is Raw prepared to take Military requirements of Intelligence their concern? Do rank politicians Like Sushma and Rajnath have the understanding needed? And can a former Sangh pracharak and Chief Minister posses that degree of strategic acumen? It is all so very doubtful.
To expect America to take your chestnuts out of the fire is but utopian. Our Generals are small men without vision, intellectual span or Moral strength to speak up.
Let us keep worrying for India as long as our blundering Bureaucrats are responsible for the defence of India.
The responsibilty for the lives of the solders and officers killed in the jihadi attack lie with the Northern Army cdr and his Corp cdr and they must be sacked or transferred to restore the morale of the fighting solders and the officers . They may not be directly responsible but their utterences at the behest of politcans and wicked babus have moulded them more as connivers and not combat leaders .
Soldiers can not know who is terrorist and who is not when a few teenagers don’t stop despite orders from Army just for the thrill of it.
The last I heard is that the soldiers could face a life imprisonment. If that is the case indeed, I day say this Modi govt is no better than the predecessors.
Obviously, by doing so we are simply allowing terrorists to come much closer to army establishments as sentries wouldn’t fire for fear of killing some civilian.
I fully agree with your viewpoint. Kashmir is a low-level war zone. It has been so since 1947 and god knows for how long it will remain so in the future. In a situation like this, there is always the case of “co-lateral damage” for which the Army cannot be held responsible. The western forces (US and NATO) stationed in Afghanistan and elsewhere are fully protected under the criterion of “co-lateral” damage and are never held accountable for their actions. Otherwise they could not carry out their operations. I am really baffled at why the present PM Modi will not protect the Indian Army in this context. As I see it, Modi is simply undermining the Armed Forces by his public statements.
Poor Modi. Everybody wants him to make miracle. He is not a magician. The rot of the present system is difficult to cure – especially the last decade of UPA-I and UPA-II. It is just six months. He needs to pave the path for bringing in international finance to create job opportunities first. Without adequate finance (and growth in GDP) we cannot improve our science, technology, infrastructure, and armed forces. The old dogs are still sitting in the Rajya Saba ready to scuttle any path breaking change. The day NDA-2 gets adequate seats in Rajya Saba too, Modi will be able to push forward many many things. For that, we need to wait for at least another 18 months. Miracles do happen – provided we pray with folded hands.
“Noe the million dollar question is will the government under Prime Minister Modi change all this or will we continue as status quoists?” – Hmm, I am afraid the answer is obvious. Modi is behaving as a salesman and more interested in the so-called “development” agenda. Changing the fundamentals for the state is secondary for him. He is standing on the corporate-financiers platform. It is too much to expect from him sound strategic thinking in military contexts. His leaning towards China for industry and opening up the market for Chinese goods will drag the nation down. India is far advanced at this point of time in science and technology vis a vis China. But Modi is naïve to grasp that, let me give an example. The Chinese factories have been making glass for some time now. And their glass have been showing up gross defects by developing cracks and other faults in many buildings of China and Hong Kong (and for whoever imported glass from them). And for diagnosing the cause of such defects, they started x-raying their glass. Of course, they found nothing as causing the defects. General, Indian technologists and engineers would never have x-rayed glass to find defects. Glass is not a crystalline media – you do not pass x-ray through glass – the image will give you nothing. Even a good Physics student at undergraduate level in Indian universities would have that basic knowledge. But that is too much to expect in China. So China has started bringing in experts from western countries (Australia, Germany …) as consultants to help them out in their glass making. But one thing is sure, the Chinese State is investing heavily in science and technology in present days to come forward, many times more than India (GDP wise). In two or three decades China will likely surpass India in the field of science and technology. On the contrary, Modi has no plans in his books to advance India in this context, and Indian military prowess will remain stagnant to fight external enemies
An excellent account of the pitfalls in our higher defence thinking beyond Armed Forces Service Headquarters. Total dependence of our Political masters on unaccountable bureaucrats in the Ministry of Defence is a recipe for disaster awaiting the Nation.
What cuts deep in politics cuts deep everywhere !! Indian politicians & Indian politics is ROTTEN,CORRUPT & DIRTY. The entire Indian Establishment including The Administrative Services, Judiciary,Police ,Intelligence services,& even the Armed Forces have been deeply affected,Paralysed corrupted etc by our Politicians !!!,.Radical changes & reforms are needed in the Higher Defence set up,Defence Procurement & Aquistions, Defence public sector undertakings, Internal Security & the Intelligence set up. Decentralisation,Independence in taking small but vital decisions, Accountability, Professionalism & Competency should be the criterion for this restructuring & Revamping..Recently a 2 star defence officer [retd ] told me that his Posting to RAW was the WORST POSTING in his illustrious carreer.He had total disgust with RAW & its functioning. Military Intelligence is no better. Having studied at Army Public School & AFMC I have seen from close quarters how the Armed Forces have been getting deeply affected & Corrupted. In the 1960’s & 1970’s top cadets at NDA & IMA would give First choice to ARMS [Armoured,Infantry ]. Nowdays Toppers at NDA,IMA.,OTA etc are giving First Choice to ASC,ORDNANCE etc where they can make MONEY. Army Commanders are appointing ASC officers as their MA’s [ a very Key appointment ] because they know the Market Procurement / Prices/ tender Process thoroughly. One Northern Army Commander is reported to have made Hundreds of Crores in making Emergency Provisions at costly rates. ASC officers are BRILLIANT in these type of Scams.Lastly, Sycophancy is DEEPLY ENDEMIC to the Armed Forces esp. in the Army, much more than in civil..Those who differ,point out mistakes of their seniors or refuse to carry out Illegal orders are FIXED & their careers destroyed..In Civil services a KHEMKA OR A CHATURVEDI can still survive & bounce back but not in the Armed Forces.
Agree with thoughtful insights of Lt. Katoch. How much brainwork does it need to understand that the Kashmir’s border violence is caused by the terrorists directly controlled by the Pakistani military. That being given, is it not time to ask the Indian defense department and the military, what is your response after each act of terrorism? The diplomatic moves by the Indian Politicians are merely excuses for not doing anything. They are baseless, thoughtless and boring, while the nation burns. Unfortunately this has been going on for the last fifty years. So…
1. Stop all communications, travel and contact between the Kashmiris and the enemy across the border through a border ordinance under national security. The separatists are nothing more than agents of Pakistan, moled inside Kashmir while facilitating terrorism from Pakistan. The national security is a greater priority than appeasement.
2. Create a retaliation plan at the border against the enemy to cause significant damage to the infrastructure and support services of Pakistan. Be ready to meet enemy toe to toe if they wish to expand the conflict. Seek outside help, namely, Israel to improve technology of detection and retaliation.
3. The nation expects from the new Government in Delhi a more result based security plan. The strategy must incorporate a fast and furious response to hold the enemy accountable for it’s actions. Pakistan is here to stay, in the dirt and ignorance at least for the next fifty years by choosing to fight the Kaffirs as spelled out in Koran, rather than develop their nation. India must act accordingly.
India should adapt the policy of united states by helping Pakistan fight against terror
mr shoib paki stop wrting ur foolishness us helping pakistan means killing paki mil n jihadi n u… got that..
Amit, your a wanker, go back to your donkey class and learn to spell
Very well analyzed and written, I wish we follow the recommendations.
Intelligence failure, senior military leadership failure and now too well known empty and hollow political rhetoric. “Eent ka jawab patthhar?” Near three decades and our predictable response would be A we will not play cricket with Pakistan.B A process of dialogue should start C Preprators of dis dastardly attack must be brought to book blah blah. Pakistan has clearly stated that they would not and can not stop terrorism. So what options do we have?(I) Continue as we have been in the past eg A,B or C or all of the above .(II) Pro-active viz hot pursuit, destruction of terrorist camps through air assault or drone attacks or an offensive. Easiest option is Option I. For option II India needs to equip and build war winning Defence Forces both for conventional and asymmetrical/digital warfare. Yet there is one more option India sometimes thinks of “phone a friend”. We salute our young leadership and soldiers who continue to defend the nation despite our serious inadequacies at senior political and military leadership.
I am not impressed.Poor security at the camp.How did they manage to sneak in.THERE ARE NO LOW PRIORITY CAMPS IN THE ARMY.
Our government simply doesn’t has the courage to counter these insurgencies. If they had a strong will Hafeez Saeed would be dead via a covert operation. Add to that Dawood Ibrahim is scot free and the BJP government was responsible for releasing terrorists in 1999. Pakistanis know very well that India doesn’t possess the will to get into POK and eliminate the camps. We just criticize never act.
Battle fatigue. There is a limit as to how long, continuously, a force can remain in high alert mode. One of the major problems of an over stretched and under manned/officered and trained force. In the old days, it was a year on the field and two years at peace station for training, replenishment and recuperation. Even on active (field) duty, one company of a unit would be on high alert while two coys rested. So also with the Platoons and sections except when mobilized in emergent war fare. The rule of “three” that percolated through the infantry was by design. Today there is no clear demarcation or even a recognition of the demands of military service as compared to civilian service. Kaluchak, Tanda, Samba, now Uri. Only those who have served on active duty should have any control over military policy. Higher Army command must be reserved for Infantry Officers who have really done their bit. Unlike men, influential officers collect a plethora of service medals while escaping field service to go on training and other assignments. About their IAS and MP bosses, the less said the better.