Geopolitics

Backroom Snippets from Islamabad
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Issue Net Edition | Date : 19 Apr , 2018

Indian High Commission Housing Residential Complex on about 15 acres plot is coming up in Diplomatic Enclave, Islamabad. It is 98% complete and will be fully operational by Sep 18. On becoming functional, interference from ISI may stop and thus ISI is worried. ISI intervened on 15 Feb and stopped the work and snapped electricity connection. Again ISI created disruptive activities on 17 Feb and thereafter. It was followed by harassing of diplomatic mission personnel.

As Afghanistan has declined to BRI and so has India thus it is emerging that CPEC will be in isolation, only linking Pakistan-China and not be part of overall BRI / OBOR.

Pakistan High Commission personnel requested to be member of Delhi Gymkhana Club. They declined to pay the membership amount and asked for concessions. They were conveyed that the Club is as democratic as India and can’t give concessions. Later Indian High Commission members were declined membership of Islamabad Club.

Diplomatic rows have abated as of now but will escalate very soon.

With Karakorum closed for six months in year, CPEC is an initiative for balance six months only. China is making efforts for 24 x 7 x 365 but unlikely to succeed.

It is emerging that CPEC is not for Pakistan but for China only so as to move oil and gas from Middle East to Xinxiang directly. No investment by Pakistan at Gwadar is being permitted by China.

As Afghanistan has declined to BRI and so has India thus it is emerging that CPEC will be in isolation, only linking Pakistan-China and not be part of overall BRI / OBOR.

Road to Gwadar is taking Punjab alignment and Baluchistan has been totally left out due to apprehensions. No land acquisition has commenced in Baluchistan. Punjab monopoly on CPEC continues as project is totally hijacked by Punjabis.

Pakistan Army has realized that politicians are in process of selling the Nation hence they have started their interventions…

All contracts are only to Chinese. Though the tenders are global, China is making contract conditions in a manner that no Pakistani company qualifies i.e. cash reserve of USD 5Bn or five years experience etc.

Management of Gwadar is exclusively with Chinese. Pakistan wanted to place toll on moving vehicles which has been declined by China.

90% of profit from Gwadar is to Chinese and only 10% to Pakistan. Traders are feeling the pinch and are up in arms.

Pakistan Army has realized that politicians are in process of selling the Nation hence they have started their interventions including malleable regime in Aug 18.

Most of the Chinese workers are criminals and work on ‘hot bunk basis’ for 12 hrs. Some Chinese have indulged into ATM thefts and have been imprisoned.

Recently some Chinese had beaten up Pakistan police personnel. One Chinese was killed in Karachi which was blamed on India. Later it was revealed that it was intra-Company politics with Pakistan hand.

Chinese families stay in groups i.e. 6-8 families in a house for security, saving money and also to tide over alien culture.

Recently Pakistan asked China for US $ 5 Bn loan which has been declined by China.

Pakistan is playing card of Muslim nation with Maldives. However, Pakistan is just moving the Chinese agenda.

Pakistan is talking of ‘Bipin Doctrine’ wherein “it’s a doctrine that advocates breaching the sovereignty and territorial integrity of another county by executing surgical strikes without considering its consequence”. It is palpable in all discussions.

Pakistan is convinced that in the current scenario, India will not talk.

US is serious about Pakistan. POTUS Trump is convinced that US Department of State is not delivering hence there are frequent sackings of Secretaries and NSA. Trump wants turn-around and wants to stop terror machinery.

USA is stepping up on firepower and aircraft A-10C Thunderbolt II is back in Afghanistan. USA wants Afghan Taliban and Haqaani to be tamed immediately and be brought to the negotiating table.

Interim Government is Pakistan will be sworn on 31 May 18 and within 90 days, new Government has to form up. MML and other Jihadi groups are unlikely to be in the Government due to US pressure. PML-N is unlikely and so is Imraan Khan who is seen close to India and an unstable person.

Pakistan Army may support Zardari being corrupt, all charges dropped by NAB in Nov 17 yet providing due levers to Deep State.

Pakistan is wrongly creating second bluff (after nuclear bluff) that water shortage will occur in Pakistan as its population will be 450m by 2050. Being done to put pressure for IWT to remain. By no calculation, Pakistan population will be 450m by 2050.

Lots of ISIS graffiti have been happening and are occurring in Pakistan.

There is no water shortage currently as well and all canals are full, arid zones being converted into cultivable land.

Pashtun Tahafuz Movement (PTM) is gaining ground.  It is a social movement for Pashtun human rights, based in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA), Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan. The leader of the movement is Manzoor Pashteen from South Waziristan. There was grand gathering of PTM in the center of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Peshawar on 8th April, 2018. More than 60 thousand people joined the protest. Pakistan’s mainstream television channels and media outlets are not reporting and covering the activities of the PTM.

Pakistan is playing card of Muslim nation with Maldives. However, Pakistan is just moving the Chinese agenda.

Pak COAS in his recent visit to Maldives appears to have just carried the Chinese agenda and optics to distance Maldives from India. Pak doesn’t appear to have much of influence in Maldives.

Lots of ISIS graffiti have been happening and are occurring in Pakistan. Radicals are ensuring their grip on Pakistan polity. They have recently asked for five times official breaks for five times Namaz.

Kashmir remains a national obsession.

Link being established among Mushaal Malik- Shahid Afridi- Ayesha Andrabi for moving Pakistan agenda.

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