Geopolitics

Assertive Dragon
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Issue Book Excerpt: China Threat in South Asia | Date : 16 Jan , 2012

Ahead of offering an Indian perspective on rising China, Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh (in Washington) said lately, “there is but a certain amount of assertiveness on the Chinese part” that we do not “fully understand.”1

The Indian Army is now revising its five-year-old doctrine to effectively meet challenges of a possible two-front war” with China and Pakistan, deal with asymmetric and fourth-generation warfare, enhance strategic reach and synergize cooperation with the Indian Air Force and Navy.

On the economic growth, Singh said that while there was no doubt that Chinese performance is superior to India’s, “there are other values which are more important than growth of Gross Domestic Product…I think the respect for fundamental human rights, the respect for rule of law, respect for…multi-cultural rights…I think those have values. So, even if the Indian performance with regard to the GDP might not be as good as the Chinese, certainly I would not like to choose the Chinese path.”2

The Indian Defense Minister A K Antony, addressing the 44th foundation day celebrations for the Institute for Defense Studies and Analyses in New Delhi, said, “We’ve to carry out continuous appraisals of Chinese military capabilities and shape our responses accordingly.

“At the same time, we need to be vigilant at all times”3 hoping that China would reciprocate India’s trust-building initiatives.

Indian environment minister Jairam Ramesh in Beijing dismissed speculation in some quarters that China would do a ‘side deal’ with the US before the Copenhagen conference on climate change in December and betray the cause of other developing nations like India.

Jairam Ramesh was quoted as saying, “After today’s discussions, it does not appear China will ditch us…Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao is himself involved in discussions making it nearly impossible for Beijing to backtrack…They are playing for long stakes for leadership of the green technology movement…China knows that with 23% (carbon) emissions, it is the world’s biggest emitter.”4

“¦both India and China are under pressure to make binding commitments from the developed countries and realize that they need to work closely together, whatever their other differences, to ward off pressure.

Indian official were quoted as claiming that work on a link-road in Demchok in the south eastern Ladakh region has been stopped after objections were raised by the Chinese Army after repeated incursions in that area…After nearly 3.8 kms of road, the Chinese Army sought a flag meeting with Indian Army and raised strong objections over the construction as they consider the area as disputed.5

With reports suggesting that China was building over two dozen new airstrips along the Line of Actual Control (LAC), the Indian government said that there was no need to be “unnecessarily” worried as India was adequately strengthening herself.6

The Indian Minister of State for Defense, M M Pallam Raju, told reporters, “I don’t think we need to be unnecessarily alarmed. As a regional power, it (China) will strengthen their infrastructure. It will procure their arms and we are doing what we have to do to for strengthening our line.”7

Even as China objects to the construction of a road in the Ladakh region, India’s External Intelligence Agency, Research and Analysis Wing (RAW) has conveyed to the government that China is simultaneously building and repairing as many as 27 airstrips in Tibet.8

According to a senior Indian official, “Many of these 27 military strips have been newly built. Others which have been expanded too are seeing increasing Chinese activities. Like the intermediate range missiles stationed in the Delingha region, these airfields can be of strategic use for China only against India.”9

There can be no denying that these three leading Asian powers and the US have different playbooks: America wants a uni-polar world but a multi-polar Asia; China seeks a multi-polar world but a uni-polar Asia; and Japan and India desire a multi-polar Asia and a multi-polar world.

According to the official, some of the airfields which are being continuously upgraded are: Kashgar, Yarkand and Taskurgan in the western sector, Tingri and Shigatse in the middle sector and Doonshop, Kangbo, Chamdo and Phari Dzong in the eastern sector.10

In spite of the recent arrest of Arabinda Rajkhowa, an insurgent leader of Assam. There is little possibility of the Indian Government’s chances of laying hands on his boss and ULFA chief, Paresh Baruah. The Indian Government has received definite information from intelligence agencies that Chinese agencies have helped Baruah to set up base in China’s Yunnan province…Baruah was now mostly based on the Chinese side of the border even though he frequents northern Myanmar.11

According to an Indian analyst, both India and China are under pressure to make binding commitments from the developed countries and realize that they need to work closely together, whatever their other differences, to ward off pressure (at the UN climate summit in Copenhagen) on mitigation measures.12

After a display of public bonhomie in Copenhagen, The Chinese Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi called on Indian Foreign Minister S M Krishna to invite him to China. Declaring a “new beginning” in bilateral relations, Yang repeated his Premier Wen Jiabao’s sentiments that China and India should continue to unify the stand in multilateral forums.13

The Indian Army is now revising its five-year-old doctrine to effectively meet challenges of a possible two-front war” with China and Pakistan, deal with asymmetric and fourth-generation warfare, enhance strategic reach and synergize cooperation with the Indian Air Force and Navy.14

A diplomatic concession extended by the United Kingdom to China over Tibet could weaken Indias case in the territorial dispute with China and might be used by Beijing to bolster its argument in border talks with New Delhi”¦

Unidentified sources were quoted as disclosing that work on the new war doctrine – to reflect the reconfiguration of threat perceptions and security challenges – is on under the aegis of the Shimla-based Army Training Centre Command, headed by Lt-Gen A S Lamba.15

According to an official, the Indian Directorate General of Civil Aviation issued a directive asking all airlines to “ensure that they do not check-in any passenger with stapled Chinese visa on their passports.”16

The directive came weeks after India declared as “invalid” the standalone paper visas given by the Chinese embassy in New Delhi, and consulates in Mumbai and Kolkata to Indian from Jammu & Kashmir and Arunachal Pradesh.17

An Indian strategic affairs specialist writes, ‘The US administration has signaled its intent to abandon elements in its ties with India that could annoy China, including a joint military exercise in Arunachal and any further joint naval maneuvers involving Japan or other parties, like Australia…

‘As the US-China relationship deepens in the coming years, the strains in some of America’s existing partnerships could become pronounced. For example, building a stronger cooperative relationship with China is now taking precedence in US policy over the sale of advanced weaponry to Asian allies, lest the transfer of offensive arms provoke Chinese retaliation…

China said it will do what it takes to protect the rights of three Chinese engineers, who were arrested and charged with culpable homicide in India.

‘There can be no denying that these three leading Asian powers and the US have different playbooks: America wants a uni-polar world but a multi-polar Asia; China seeks a multi-polar world but a uni-polar Asia; and Japan and India desire a multi-polar Asia and a multi-polar world.’18

A diplomatic concession extended by the United Kingdom to China over Tibet could weaken India’s case in the territorial dispute with China and might be used by Beijing to bolster its argument in border talks with New Delhi, according to an Oxford University scholar tracking the issue.19

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The views expressed are of the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions or policies of the Indian Defence Review.

About the Author

Dr Pushpa Adhikari

is the first Nepali Post-Doctoral Fellow at London School of Economics and Political Science, London, and the most eminent China expert of Nepal.

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