Geopolitics

Ashraf Ghani’s Peace Plan
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Issue Net Edition | Date : 10 Apr , 2021

A senior-level meeting between the Taliban and the Afghan government is scheduled to be hosted by Turkey later this month. Turkey is to appoint a special envoy for these peace talks. This was part of the four proposals by the Biden administration to resolve the Afghanistan tangle or rather facilitate US troop pullout which was conveyed to Afghanistan’s President Ashraf Ghani in March this year through a letter by US Secretary of State Antony Blinken. The other three US proposals were:  ministerial-level talks among Russia, China, Pakistan, Iran, India and the US to discuss a unified approach; proposal to implement a 90-day reduction in violence intended to prevent a spring offensive by Taliban, and; President Ghani to consider US proposals for a roadmap toward a new Afghan government.

The peace talks in Doha, Qatar are known to have reached a stalemate but Deborah Lyons, Special Representative of the UN Secretary-General for Afghanistan and Head of the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) recently told the UNSC that after meeting with the parties in Doha, real substantive progress had been reported on key issues from the Taliban and Afghan government amid the ongoing talks. She further said that the upcoming intra-Afghan meeting in Turkey is an opportunity for the Afghan government and Taliban to come to agreements on fundamental outstanding issues, adding, “The forthcoming talks tin Istanbul present an opportunity to solidify the principles upon which the process will be based, and potentially lay the foundation for a just and inclusive settlement that would complement the ongoing negotiations in Doha. These initiatives must, however, be focused and coherent. Above all they must reinforce, rather than undermine the Afghanistan peace negotiations underway now in Doha.” Turkey’s state-owned Anadolu news agency has quoted Turkish foreign minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu saying, “This is not a meeting that is an alternative to the Qatar process, it is a complement to that.” The meeting agenda remains unclear, but Turkey has said the talks would be goal-oriented.

Turkey is a NATO member since 1952 and has helped the West train the Islamic State and serve as conduit for global terrorists entering Iraq-Syria particularly to topple Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. Why the US has proposed the intra-Afghan talks in Turkey is with a purpose. The US wants Turkey to push the US plan for a two-sided power sharing agreement for an interim government in Afghanistan without holding elections, installation of which will facilitate quick exit of US troops.  This is also part of the four point US proposal; “President Ghani to consider US proposals for a roadmap toward a new Afghan government”. In return, the Biden administration appears amenable for a larger role for Turkey in Afghanistan. The US perhaps also hopes that the Taliban will be more agreeable to Turkish advice given the radicalization of Turkey under President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

On occasion of the 100th anniversary of Turkey-Afghanistan diplomatic relations in March 2021, Turkey’s foreign minister Çavuşoğlu said that Turkish troops will remain in Afghanistan as long as required. Last year the Turkish Parliament approved a motion to extend deployment of Turkish troops in Afghanistan for 18 months. This was unusual as Turkey has always approved extension for its troops in foreign soil for 12 months at a time. Turkey sent troops to Afghanistan to support the NATO-led mission Resolute Support. After ending the 17-year combat mission in Afghanistan in 2018, the mission has evolved into training and advising Afghan security forces. Some 12,000 troops from 28 NATO allies and 14 other partner nations agreed to support the NATO mission in Afghanistan. The legislation that was first passed in 2015 also grants the government the authority to permit foreign army personnel to be transported to and from Afghanistan through Turkey.

President Ghani has maintained all along that he would welcome the Taliban to contest elections any time. Post the US-Taliban peace deal signed on February 29, 2020, violence levels in Afghanistan have shot up exponentially. According to UNAMA, 3,035 civilians were killed and 5,785 injured in attacks in 2020, with a significant rise in assassinations since direct talks between Kabul and the Taliban began in September 2020, and that targeted killings of journalists, civil society members and health workers may amount to war crimes.

Adela Raz, Afghanistan’s Permanent Representative to the UN has stated, “The Taliban is directly targeting those who strive for a better future through the killings. They are targeting our young democracy, our vibrant civil society and our free and independent press. These attacks are meant to dissuade the participation of women and youth in the peace process, create widespread panic and crush our aspiration for peace.” Notably, US officials have been saying periodically that the Taliban have yet to uphold their end of the bargain.

The intra-Afghan talks are to be held in this backdrop. President Ghani is reportedly set to propose a three-phase peace roadmap for Afghanistan during the forthcoming talks in Turkey: a ceasefire agreement in Phase 1; presidential election in Phase 2, and; evolving a new constitutional framework in Phase 3. Ghani’s proposals are pragmatic but would there be any takers?  The US too has proposed a 90-day ceasefire but this is more of a chimera with the Taliban having already given an ultimatum they would resume attacks on foreign troops if US troops do not withdraw by May 1 as agreed to in the US-Taliban peace deal of last year.

As mentioned above, the US wants to push for an interim government in Afghanistan, perhaps with half the seats given to the Taliban. Appeasing the Taliban is not new. The ‘Afghan Peace Process Roadmap to 2015’ developed in  November 2012 had slotted ceasefire in first half of 2013 and offered Taliban non-elected positions at various levels in government. This virtually gave the Taliban complete control of Pashtun dominated areas along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border after 2014 elections. But this was not accepted by Taliban. Why would they agree now when they are on the ascent and control half Afghanistan? Ghani anyway is not for an interim government without elections. So the US may be looking to sideline him, get rid of him or exert pressures from all directions to make him bend. 

On the question of Turkish troops continuing in Afghanistan after withdrawal of US troops, the US, China, Russia, Iran and Pakistan would all welcome it though the China-Pakistan-Turkey axis will pose bigger sub-conventional threat to India and Indian interests in Afghanistan notwithstanding Russian assurances. Logically this should not be acceptable to the Taliban who have been calling for ‘all foreign troops’ to quit Afghanistan. However, if Taliban takeover Afghanistan or as part of interim government cut a deal for part Taliban fighters to be absorbed in Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF), they may be agreeable for Turkish troops continued presence to train the ANSF, as they are presently doing as part NATO troops. This would help Turkey-Afghanistan defence cooperation and Turkish defence exports to Afghanistan.

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The views expressed are of the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions or policies of the Indian Defence Review.

About the Author

Lt Gen Prakash Katoch

is Former Director General of Information Systems and A Special Forces Veteran, Indian Army.

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One thought on “Ashraf Ghani’s Peace Plan

  1. SIR, IN THE MINISTERIAL LEVEL TALKS PROPOSED BY US;, INDIA&US JOINTLY MUST IMPRESS IT UPON TALIBAN, PAKISTAN ,CHINA&TUKEY THAT TALIBAN, PAKISTAN&TURKEY MUST NOT TURN IN ON KASHMIR&START SUPPORTING ISLAMIST SEPARATIST&ANTINATIONAL FORCES THERE. IF THIS HAPPENS THEN IT WOULD AMOUNT TO A COVERT
    COLLUSION OF THESE ISLAMIST FORCES AGAINST KASHMIR&INDIA. IT IS A VERY REAL POSSIBILITY AFTER THE AFGANISTAN SETTLEMENT&COMING INTO POWER OF THE TALIBAN. THE ONE POINT COMMON AGENDA OF THESE POWERS WILL ALSO. AMOUNT TO ISLAMIZATION OF THIS ENTIRE REGION&CONSOLIDATION OF THE SHERIA REGIME THAT WILL ADVERSELY AFFECT THE MODERNIZATION&DEVELOPMENT OF AFGANISTAN. INDIA, US&RUSSIA ALSO MUST NULLIFY THIS NEFARIOUS ACGENDA OF THESE POWERS&MUST PUT PRESSURE ON TALIBAN, PAKISTAN&TURKEY TO FOLLOW SECULAR DEMOCRATIC PRINCIPLES IN THE NEW CONSTITUTION OF AFGANISTAN. US, INDIA&RUSSIA ALSO MUST INSIST&DEMAND THE TALIBAN&PAKISTAN TO FIRST ENDORSE THIS DEMOCRATIC CONSTITUTION OF AFGANISTAN &TO DESIST AT ALL COSTS FROM ITS ATTEMPTS TO TALIBANIZE&ISLAMIZE AFGANISTA. ONLY THEN THE US INDIA&RUSSIA WILL BE FULFILLING THEIR PLEDGE&DUTY TOWARDS JUST&EQUITABLE WORLD ORDER. TALIBANIZATION&ISLAMIZATION OF AGGANISTAN WILL DROWN ENTIRE NORTH WEST ASIA INTO THE DARK NESS OF WAR, VIOLENCE&BENIGHTED MASSES.

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