Geopolitics

Arab Spring: A Mirage - II
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Issue Courtesy: Aakrosh | Date : 14 Aug , 2012

Democratic Hype and “Arab Spring”

The on-going phase of sociopolitical transformation, ostensibly in the name of democracy, cannot be described even as a partial success in the few Arab nations that have been affected by it. The process is still taking place. Success remains elusive as well as considerably distorted from what it was projected as initially. Now, this in itself raises the crucial question, considering that only a few of the numerous Arab countries have been actually affected by a phase of sociopolitical transformation, would it be fair to label this as Arab Spring and raise false notions about the entire Arab world having been affected by it? Besides, the different ways in which transformation is taking place in a few countries cannot be sidelined. This adds credence to questioning the hype raised about Arab Spring when in essence the transformation is yet to satisfy the people and leaders in a few countries that it has begun in. This naturally demands deliberation on whether the hype was deliberately raised to ensure that political transformation begins in a few nations and justify the support for the same in others.

Democracy in any part of the world cannot be imposed from outside, by external forces.

The few odd nations where political transformation is actually taking place do not constitute even 50 per cent of the Arab world. Equally important is the fact that the role of external powers and internal forces has varied strongly in all these countries, which are said to be heading towards greater democracy. It may not be possible to delve in details on developments in each of these nations, but they shall be referred to briefly. From one angle, the way the Arab Spring has been projected by Western media and nations suggests that this process was long overdue and democratically the Arabs are moving forward in the “right” direction. At the outset, one is tempted to raise the question as to whether it would be fair to blame Arabs if they have not yet included democratic principles in their political structure. Yemen, for instance, was subject to Western colonialism less than a century ago. So was Algeria. It takes decades, even centuries, for the development of democratic institutions and norms. Considering that colonialism had not allowed democracy to actually take roots in Yemen, why should only the Arab leaders of this nation be blamed for their country’s political system?

If the so-called supporters and promoters of Arab Spring are doing so out of their genuine concern for democracy to take roots in this region, there is yet another angle to this phase that cannot be sidelined. Democracy in any part of the world cannot be imposed from outside, by external forces. When external pressure or force is used to change regimes in the name of establishing democracy, it is, in essence, nothing but another form of neocolonialism confirming its grip on that country. What else does the forcible ouster of Muammar Gaddafi from Libya and that of Saddam Hussein from Iraq suggest?

Undeniably, propaganda raised about the need of political transformation in favour of democracy in Syria suggests the same. The “concern for democracy” regarding Syria, is motivated towards the ouster of President Assad from power. Well, democratic and diplomatic ethics demand that this be a decision taken by Syrians and not imposed as per dictates of Washington and its allies.

 Attempts made through the United Nations have been defeated by Russia and China. Besides, even if Assad decides to step down, there is the fear that this may lead to greater instability, chaos and conflict in the country.

True, Egypt has witnessed Hosni Mubarak’s removal from power. But would it be fair to assume that this transformation has actually led to a democratic form of government, enabling elected representatives of the people to hold reins of power there? Not yet. The people in Egypt and the observers still remain dissatisfied with the transformation, which remains a far cry from the democratic form that they had probably envisaged at the time they began demonstrations demanding the dismissal of Mubarak. The Egyptian experience has apparently made the rest of the Arab world much wiser and practical about taking the same path in the name of so-called democracy. This explains as to why the “revolution” painted as Arab Spring has not actually spread across the entire Arab world and has not yet succeeded totally in the countries that have been affected by it.

This also explains as to why even Western writers have started deliberating on this so-called revolution, particularly in Egypt, as already being dead.

Arabs Disillusioned by Arab Spring

Undeniably, the on-going protests, conflict, chaos and instability in the few Arab nations witnessing these in the name of Arab Spring have made the rest of the Arab world wary of their facing similar changes. They are gradually revising their stand on demonstrations and violence spelling a brighter future for the region. In this context, notwithstanding all the support displayed by the United States with its supporters for opposition forces and rebellions in Syria, prospects of Assad being unseated easily still remain dim. Attempts made through the United Nations have been defeated by Russia and China. Besides, even if Assad decides to step down, there is the fear that this may lead to greater instability, chaos and conflict in the country. A strong division prevails amongst the opposition, which minimises prospects of a stable government taking over from Assad in the immediate future. Conflict or warlike means cannot be expected to lead to any democratic form of government. Nor can they guarantee political stability.

India has wisely stated its preference for a dialogue between all national representatives within Syria to end the present crisis. In other words, greater importance is now being given to a Gandhian style for encouraging political changes within Syria, Tunisia and other Arab nations. The Gandhian style implies giving importance to dialogue, without any conflict or use of force, and allowing the democratic process to gradually develop from within the nation, leaving no room for it to be imposed by external forces.

Undeniably, communication revolution has made the Arabs highly conscious of their own political preferences, religious identity and national sovereignty. They don’t want to compromise on either of these by being taken for a ride by what is being projected as Arab Spring. The Arabs, in general, have not welcomed the change in Western attitude towards them following the 11 September 2001 terrorist attacks in the United States. They have also not approved of their religion, Islam, which means peace, being associated with terrorism. Not surprisingly, gradually but definitely, they have been prompted to give importance to enhancing their diplomatic ties with the East, which includes India.

India is a secular and democratic nation, which is also home to several religions being followed strongly by different sections of society. Democracy, secularism and adherence to religious practices—including Hinduism, Islam, Sikhism and Christianity—coexist in India. An Indian can be secular, a strong democrat as well as a firm believer in his or her religious values. The appeal of this concept is picking up among the Arabs. In their perception, in their respective states, they can promote both democracy and Islam. This also explains their assertion, which is gradually gaining strength, that they need to define democracy in keeping with their sociocultural norms and not as decided for them by Western dictates.

An Indian can be secular, a strong democrat as well as a firm believer in his or her religious values. The appeal of this concept is picking up among the Arabs.

Democracy as per Western dictates, even if it is not opposed by Arabs, can really not be accepted as genuine democracy. Howsoever democratic the United States may claim itself to be, it is well known that the foreign policy of the country is decided by a few strong lobbies operating there, particularly that of Jews. The Jews do not constitute a significant proportion of the country’s electoral population and yet have command over particularly its foreign policy and media. This certainly cannot be viewed as democratic rule from any angle. Understandably, the United Kingdom is far more democratic and its media has more freedom than that of the United States. But this country is headed by a constitutional monarch. Now, if democracy allows monarchy, even though nominally, this does not justify the noise made about the dismissal of Arab monarchs in the name of democracy. Nevertheless, if the West remains insistent that the time has come for this change to take place, then the first step in this direction should be taken by the royalty residing in Buckingham Palace. The queen should move out, without her crown, symbolising an end to constitutional monarchy in Britain. It may take decades, perhaps centuries, before this transformation takes place in Britain. This in itself negates the “democratic” importance being attached by supporters of Arab Spring to stepping down from power of kings holding power in the region. Besides, practically speaking, the United States and its allies are least concerned about whom the Arab countries are headed by as long as they have friendly ties with them. Neither Gaddafi nor Saddam Hussein was a monarch, but their removal from power by force was essential from the U.S. perspective as the two did not entertain cordial ties with Washington.

Palestinian Issue

Interestingly, a few supporters of Arab Spring expected this transformation to lead to the recognition of Israel as a sovereign state in the region. This is what the United States and, of course, Israel really desire. This raises the notion that perhaps to a degree Washington and its allies raised hype about Arab Spring not really for the sake of democracy but to suit their interests and that of Israel. This also implies that their interest was to push the Palestinian issue to the backburner by going overboard regarding the importance of Arab Spring.

If, for a while, one were to put aside all the reservations expressed in this piece regarding the hype raised about the importance of Arab Spring in interest of democracy in the region, there is yet another crucial issue that cannot be sidelined. If the United States is seriously concerned about promoting Arab Spring, then history and diplomatic ethics demand that first priority be given to worst sufferers of democratic and humanitarian abuse in the region. Yes, this refers to ensuring a sovereign state for the Palestinians, where they are fully entitled to their democratic rights.4 Sadly, the hype raised about Arab Spring in a few nations suggests that perhaps this exercise has been deliberately indulged in to push the concern for the Palestinians’ rights to the backburner.

 The increasing pace with which the Arabs are asserting this fact is perhaps just a minor example that Arab Spring has failed even before it has actually had any significant impact. This was but natural.

Thanks to communication revolution, the Arabs and other countries have become conscious of the limited appeal and impact of Arab Spring. Not surprisingly, they have started giving greater importance to opting for the democratic path as it suits their interests and not as decided by the White House. The new importance being accorded to Indian democracy in keeping with Gandhian principles is one indicator of this strong fact. The manner in which political turns have taken place in Libya and a few other countries in the name of Arab Spring has little appeal for most of the Arab world, including the countries undergoing the phase of political transformation. Democracy, even for the sake of genuine democracy, cannot be imposed by external pressure, nor can it be imported or exported. The increasing pace with which the Arabs are asserting this fact is perhaps just a minor example that Arab Spring has failed even before it has actually had any significant impact. This was but natural. The addition of the label “Arab Spring” can mislead the people for a while into thinking that they are a part of this political movement but not for long, thanks to the communication revolution.

Conclusion

The on-going phase of sociopolitical transformation, ostensibly in the name of democracy, cannot be described even as a partial success in the few Arab nations that have been affected by it. The process is still taking place. Success remains elusive as well as considerably distorted from what it was projected as initially.

Despite the United States and its allies having exercised all efforts possible, with the support of most sections of the Western media, Arab Spring has failed to sweep the Arab world. The people affected by protests and demonstrations do not represent a significant percentage of the Arab world. Besides, even the protestors cannot be assumed to be legitimate and genuine representatives of their respective countries’ populations. The last point justifies the failure of emergence of any strong revolutionary leaders or parties even in the few countries witnessing a phase of political transformation. It may be noted that this transformation is not people-oriented. The transformation has been marked at most by a change of leaders at the helm. This change has not spelt better sociopolitical tidings for the people. Rather, the situation has worsened for them. Ironically, while elaborate attention has been paid to the increase in sufferings of Egyptians, practically little attention has been given to the hardships being faced by the Libyans and the Iraqis following the change imposed upon them by external powers.

Diplomatically, while external powers are observing developments in Egypt, they are trying all their cards in Syria and they bend diplomatic ethics to use military prowess in Libya. In this context, initially, hype was deliberately raised about Arab Spring to probably justify political changes desired by the United States in countries such as Libya. It is impossible to correlate what happened in Libya with the incident of the burning man in Tunisia or Mubarak’s dismissal from power in Egypt. Likewise, the on-going protests in Syria cannot be viewed as similar to those taking place in either Jordan or the few odd ones in Saudi Arabia. This raises questions on the use of the label “Arab Spring” from another angle. It would be appropriate to view sociopolitical changes in respective Arab countries in keeping with their national issues. The label “Arab Spring” carries different interpretations for each Arab nation. It has been deliberately used to perhaps excite a revolutionary frenzy across the entire Arab world. This attempt has failed. This also proves the point that the hype about Arab Spring was raised to manufacture a revolution, ostensibly towards democracy, in the Arab countries. This attempt has also failed diplomatically as well as politically. But if the users of this label are still hopeful that Arab Spring will have some impact on the entire Arab world, if not now than in the near future, then they should start giving more importance to diplomatic and democratic rights of the Palestinians, who have been engaged in a revolutionary struggle for a long time. If Arab Spring has to take roots in the region, it needs to cease remaining a mirage for the Palestinians!

Notes and References

  1. Jack Shenker. “Egypt’s Revolution Faces Stern Test as Country Votes for President.” Guardian (UK), 15 June 2012.
  2. Robert Fisk. “Assad Will Breathe a Sigh of Relief at Death of Arab Spring.” Independent (UK), 16 June 2012.
  3. Brian Whitaker. “Algerian Prime Minister Calls Arab Spring a Plague.” Guardian (UK), 9 May 2012.
  4. Sarah Marusek. “West Must Recognize Peaceful Palestinian Resistance Movement.” Christian Science Monitor (U.S.), 7 June 2012.
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The views expressed are of the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions or policies of the Indian Defence Review.

About the Author

Nilofar Suhrawardy

Nilofar Suhrawardy is a well-known freelance journalist who has, at different periods, written extensively for national papers.

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