Looming terror threat
The terror threat that is waging fratricidal and civil war in middle-east has arrived at our threshold. Pakistan inspired, trained, financed and supported terror organizations like LeT, Jaish etc are hell bent on creating trouble in Kashmir and rest of India, Taliban is already entrenched in Pakistan and Afghanistan and now ISIS has reached Pakistan and Afghanistan. As known, it is matter of time before Taliban and ISIS enter into fratricidal war to establish their supremacy over the region. It is a well established fact that in India the target will not be Hindus only but vast number of religious sects, Christians, Jews, Parsees and non Sunni Muslims will be targeted. It can be safely seen that India will be next distination.We are already burdened with trans-border terrorism and if the Taliban and ISIS also join the fray it will be a tough and challenging situation.
Modus Operandi will be to sneak across trained hard core terrorists, indoctrinate and alienate minority population, start large scale communal riots, start fratricidal war between various sects of Muslims, start communal riots between Hindus and other communities.
Let us discuss the internal security as well as counter terrorism measures that are required as well as worst case scenario that can happen in present conditions:
Though the terrorists will try and spread their terror throughout the country, the states of Kashmir, Assam, West Bengal, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Gujarat, Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh and Telengana and Kerala are more prone. Modus Operandi will be to sneak across trained hard core terrorists, indoctrinate and alienate minority population, start large scale communal riots, start fratricidal war between various sects of Muslims, start communal riots between Hindus and other communities. To alienate and motivate such a large population will be a herculean task and also the peaceful and amiable co-existence between all religions, cordial relations between various religions will make this task nearly impossible. In the beginning they can only try motivation, Fanaticism, Bigotry, and weaning away and psychological alienation. Jihadists and hard core elements will try and make use of local outfits like SIMI, IM etc, so ingress of outside elements has to be watched and prevented at all costs. In a large and vast country like India reaching out to such a large population spread over such a large and vast area, having lingual and cultural diversities will be a herculean if not an impossible task.
The silver lining is that motivation, alienation and indoctrination takes a long time and sporadic and stray incidents always point out as to what is happening. Hardcore and radical institutions and personnel’s of all religions should be kept under observation and scrutiny. It requires time to start a large scale fratricidal war and there are pointers to curb, and prevent it.
India faces terror threat mainly from four sides i.e. Firstly from hard core Jihadists of Pakistan based groups like LeT, Jaish etc from across Loc and international borders of Pakistan, secondly from Taliban or Al-Qaida, thirdly from ISIS [ISLAMIC STATE OF IRAQ AND AL-SHAM OR ISLAMIC STATE] and fourthly from indigenous groups like ULFA, BODOS, insurgents of NAXALITES MOVEMENTS, MANIPUR, NAGALAND. Let’s discuss these one by one:
This terrorism is brain child of ISI and is likely to continue as no end seems in sight. Sealing the border and Loc, keeping a close watch on coastline and land routes are two passive measures suggested.
PAKISTAN SPONSORED TERROR – Pakistan sponsored terror is not new. In the garb of Kashmiri Mujahedeen they are training, motivating, financing and facilitating ingress and infiltration of these brain washed mercenaries. They have not been to make any sizeable impact except for 26/11 Mumbai strike. This terrorism is brain child of ISI and is likely to continue as no end seems in sight. Sealing the border and Loc, keeping a close watch on coastline and land routes are two passive measures suggested. Keeping watchful eye on borders of neighbors like Nepal, Bangladesh and Myanmar is also required to prevent infiltration of these terrorists should they try alternate routes? Active measure is to have trans-border raids on terrorist camps and raid them by land or air and prevent their ingress. Covert support of Chinese cannot be ruled out.
TALIBAN OR AL-QUAIDA THREAT: This is a new threat as they are already entrenched in neighborhoods i.e. Pakistan and Afghanistan.. In a bid to gain supremacy over more radical ISIS they may harden their approach and follow on their footsteps. Similar steps as suggested above will be sufficient to contain them at present. Their entry and expansion has to be prevented at all costs. Strict watch has to be kept that they do not infiltrate or merge with indigenous radical and terror groups. They are trained, equipped and supported by middle-east countries.
ISIS THREAT: Also called ISIL or Islamic State of Iraq and Levant or Islamic State in short is an extremely radical group aiming to spread Islam all over the world. They are said to have come to Pakistan and Afghanistan already by unconfirmed reports. Even if they have not reached they are bent upon a struggle for supremacy and will come sooner or later to wrest control from Taliban.
THREAT FROM INDIGENOUS GROUPS: These groups namely Naxalites, ULFA [Anoop Chetia group], Bodos, Manipur insurgents, Naga [Khaplang group] are well under control. Constant wait and watch policy is required. There should be no complacency or laxity in dealing with them. It should be ensured that they do not get more arms and ammunitions from adversaries.
The cradle of terrorism, Pakistan is our immediate neighbor. Thus India is susceptible to terror from Pakistan and terror imported via Pakistan.
In preceding paragraphs we have visualized and assessed the threat. Control and prevention can be achieved by following common measures:
- A sealed and insulated border and Loc so that terrorists cannot enter. Complete vigil is a must. Borders of other neighbors like Nepal, Bangladesh and Myanmar should also be closely watched.
- A well observed and insulated coast line and ports to prevent infiltration from sea routes.
- Since our country is multi-religious strong sense of communal harmony is required.
- Radical, bigots and trouble creators have to be identified and kept under close watch.
- There should be close co-ordination between police, intelligence agencies and armed forces.
- There should be close co-ordination between various intelligence agencies. Collection, sharing and surveillance of intelligence have to be fast and reliable.
Our society is a heterogeneous society; it is multi-religious, multi-lingual having vast and varied cultures. People from various religions, religious sects and sub-sects are residing here. The cradle of terrorism, Pakistan is our immediate neighbor. Thus India is susceptible to terror from Pakistan and terror imported via Pakistan. It is a well known fact that political conditions, economic conditions as well as military conditions are pointing towards destabilization of Pakistan. We have to bear brunt of Pak sponsored terror as well as terror imported via Pakistan. We need to remain vigilant and cautious, maintain communal harmony of highest order. Our armed forces, Para military forces, Police forces and intelligence agencies cannot afford to be slack or non vigilant.